Liberals face Adelaide wipe-out in State election in first big test of One Nation’s rise
The Liberal Party is coming third behind Labor and One Nation and could be left with as few as five seats after Saturday’s election, down from 13, a poll found. Only one would be in the state’s capital.
Saturday’s South Australian election will be the first test of One Nation’s rise — and the outlook looks grim for the Liberals.
The latest opinion poll, published today, estimates support for the Labor Party at 52 per cent, One Nation at 26 per cent and the Liberal Party at 22 per cent, in what is known as a “three-party preferred basis” that excludes other parties.
If the poll is accurate, the Liberal Party would be almost wiped out in Adelaide and left with about five seats in the 47-seat Parliament, according to former Coalition ministerial adviser Michael Horner, who conducted the poll for his Fox & Hedgehog business. There’s 13 Liberal MPs now.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.“It’s sober reading for the Liberal Party,” Mr Horner told The Nightly. “The disaster election that has been predicted appears to be on the doorstep.”
Polls by Roy Morgan Research and Newspoll in February showed the Liberals in a similar position, suggesting new leader Ashton Hurn has been unable to revive support for the party.
Federal implications
Apart from entrenching one of the most popular Labor governments in the nation, the election will be closely watched at the Federal level as a sign of whether the One Nation can convert a historic poll surge over the past year into seats.
The right-wing anti-immigration party has no chance of winning a seat in Adelaide, Mr Horner said, and in most country seats the race is too close to predict, a problem complicated by the record number of candidates.
In city seats, One Nation’s vote is likely to have little impact because of overwhelming support for the government of Premier Peter Malinauskas, whose easy-going personal style and pro-business approach has sent Labor soaring in polls.
In some conservative country seats, One Nation’s surge could push the Liberal Party to third place, knocking it out of contention.
One Nation has never won a lower house at an election. Doing so would be a historic development and mark the rise of a new threat to the Coalition from the right. Because the surge is new, experts don’t know whether it will translate into seats.
“The polling surge for One Nation has been so dramatic; I wait to see the result on Saturday to determine if it is a real voting intention polls are picking up,” Antony Green, the former ABC election analyst, told The Nightly.
Spending priorities
Internal fighting at the state and federal level has hurt the Liberal Party’s popularity. Ms Hurn — the 35-year-old sister of former West Coast Eagles captain Shannon Hurn — has been leader 99 days, giving her little time to win over voters.
Her campaign was marred by the loss last week of candidate Carston Woodhouse, who criticised a law against giving the Nazi salute and told an American Christian podcast that “feminism is demonic” and “same-sex marriage isn’t real”. He still works for the party.
On Tuesday, the Labor Party published calculations that showed the Liberal Party had promised to spend $1.8 billion in three Liberal seats: Ms Hurn’s; her deputy’s; and Bragg, the last Adelaide seat likely to fall, based on polls.
Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis called the spending promises “an extraordinary snub to her party’s members and candidates”, suggesting they are designed to protect seats held by senior MPs at the expense of others.
Ms Hurn replied: “They’ve got fantastic merit for the communities and the treasurer should be committing to them as well.”
Labor estimated the Liberal’s promises add up to $5.8b, which includes payments to carers of dementia sufferers, a new hospital in the Barossa Valley and 50-cent rides on public transport in Adelaide.
The Liberal Party, which plans to publish the cost of its promises in the next few days, disputes Labor’s calculations.
Bookmakers are offering odds of 1.01 the Labor government will be re-elected. Voting opened Monday.
