Sydney and NSW brace for dangerous east coast storm with heavy rain, damaging winds and hazardous surf

Forecasters and emergency services are warning of a potentially dangerous weather system set to impact the NSW coast early next week, with confidence growing that a significant East Coast Low could develop.

Heavy rain, damaging winds, and hazardous surf are all likely, with the Bureau of Meteorology expecting the system to begin affecting the region as early as Tuesday.

A deepening coastal trough is forecast to form off northern NSW on Monday, bringing showers and fresh winds that could rapidly intensify into heavy, potentially flooding rainfall and damaging winds as the low develops near the coast on Tuesday.

Rainfall totals of 100–200mm are possible in just 36–48 hours, particularly for the Mid North Coast, Hunter, and possibly as far south as Sydney and the Illawarra, with some models suggesting local falls could reach 300mm.

Winds are expected to strengthen as the system intensifies, with gusts over 100km/h possible between Coffs Harbour and Jervis Bay, peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Large, powerful waves, potentially up to 11–13 metres, could cause coastal erosion, especially at known hotspots like Collaroy and Wamberal beaches.

Dangerous surf and inundation of low-lying foreshore areas are possible.

The Bureau of Meteorology and NSW SES are preparing for the event, and severe weather warnings may be issued as early as Sunday or Monday.

Embedded meteorologists are working with emergency services to provide up-to-date forecasts. Residents are urged to prepare now, keep up with the latest warnings, and avoid unnecessary travel during the peak of the storm.

Recent storms have already seen the NSW SES respond to over 1,400 calls and 850 incidents, mainly involving fallen trees, downed powerlines, and property damage across the Illawarra, South Coast, Sydney, Hunter, and Central Coast regions.

For the latest warnings and updates, visit the Bureau of Meteorology or NSW SES websites.