The JORN ultimatum: Canadian relations on Australia’s radar as $6.5m defence deal leaves US in cold

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced a $6.5 billion deal to acquire a world-leading Australian radar system as Canada seeks to divest its defence capabilities from a neighbour it can “no longer trust”.

The move is the latest indication of how Five Eyes nations are clubbing together as they adjust to the new realities of the unpredictable Trump era where the reliability of traditional defence and trade ties with Washington can’t be taken for granted.

The planned sale, described by Defence Minister Richard Marles as “potentially the biggest defence industry export” in the country’s history is a big win for Australia, although Canberra has been at pains to avoid inserting itself into the extraordinary US-Canada spat.

Mr Carney made the announcement on Tuesday in Iqaluit, in the Canadian Arctic, shortly after his first phone call with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, framing the decision as part of a broader effort to assert Canada’s sovereignty in the region.

The former Bank of Canada Governor, who succeeded Justin Trudeau as leader last week, has been robust in his rejection of US President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada as the “51st state”.

“The world is changing,” Mr Carney said.

“International institutions and norms that have kept Canada secure are now being called into question. And the United States’ priorities, our ally, once closely aligned with our own, are beginning to shift,” he said.

“We cannot and should not look first to others to defend our nation.”

As the ground moves beneath Canada’s feet, it has turned to ally Australia as the world-leader in long-range “over-the-horizon” radar technology that will enable the Canadians to detect and respond faster to air and maritime threats over the Arctic.

The Australian-developed technology known as the Jindalee Over-the-Horizon Radar (JORN) will support the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD) to track threats over a vast area of 37,000 square km, with a range of up to 3000km.

JORN’s highly advanced system works by refracting high-frequency electromagnetic waves off the ionosphere above the earth’s surface to observe distant objects that would be invisible to conventional radars because of the curvature of the earth.

Speaking to reporters in Brisbane on Wednesday, Prime Minister Albanese praised Australian innovation and prospect of a “significant export” if the deal was finalised.

But a readout of his call with Mr Carney made no mention of the potentially huge development for Australia’s defence industry, instead focusing on a vaguely worded exchange of views on “global developments, including current pressures on the global trading system” and their “shared commitment to economic cooperation.”

The statement added that the leaders recommitted to “building on the strong links between Australia and Canada and to continued cooperation on global issues, including standing with Ukraine in defence of its sovereignty”.

The omission raises the question of whether Australia’s government does not wish to be seen as taking sides in the extraordinary rift between Ottawa and Washington, or whether it preferred Mr Carney to take the lead in what is not yet a done deal.

The Nightly contacted Mr Albanese’s office for comment.

Asked in Brisbane if the deal with was an example of how countries can diversify their defence supply chains to be less reliant on the US, Mr Albanese said “it’s important that we diversify” our trade relationships.

“Obviously, there are issues taking place, particularly between Canada and the United States, that I wouldn’t have expected to have been happening in my lifetime. But we have a very separate relationship with Canada and it’s a very good one,” he said.

Talks were already underway between Australia and Canada to sell the radar technology, but the United States had reportedly been expected to purchase it first.

Defence Minister Richard Marles played down the suggestion that like-minded allies had to work more closely together to compensate for the US retreat from the world stage.

“Canada is a close partner, it’s a Five Eyes partner and we’ve been working with Canada before Donald Trump became the President,” he told the ABC.

“There’s a little water to go under the bridge, but what’s in prospect here is potentially the biggest defence industry export that Australia has ever been a part of,” he said.

Canada would “stand up for itself” and its relationship with the Trump administration was “a matter between Canada and the US,” said Mr Marles, in an attempt to distance Canberra from the tensions.

“The United States remains the cornerstone of our national security in terms of the significance of the Alliance,” he said, confirming Australia was also negotiating with Washington over the purchase of the “exquisite” technology.

But as Canberra treads carefully, Dr William Stoltz, an expert associate at the ANU National Security College, said the agreement on JORN could actually accelerate the American acquisition of similar technology and expertise for an upgrade of NORAD.

“The mercurial nature of Trump and his administration means that even the most kind of pedestrian decision that we make when it comes to our defence acquisition and foreign policy can always risk attracting some sort of ire from Donald Trump,” he said.

“But at this stage, it doesn’t look as if it has attracted any criticism from the Trump administration,” he added.

“Because it’s unlikely to be a mutually exclusive arrangement, it shouldn’t, in the sense that this is showing that Australia is being forthcoming in sharing its technology.”

But when it came to the future of Five Eyes cooperation more generally, there was likely a “degree of anxiety” between the partners over the impact of Mr Trump’s transactional approach to the rich consolidation of intelligence gathering, Dr Stoltz said.

The White House’s sudden decision to withdraw intelligence from Ukraine after a showdown between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Mr Trump had raised concerns about disruption to other Five Eyes intelligence contributions, he said.

It would also likely spur efforts between individual spy chiefs to deepen their personal relationships.

Wesley Widmaier, a professor at the ANU’s department of international relations, said the imposition of harsh US trade tariffs would also inevitably push countries to diversify their trade relationships.

“When you’re seeing Australia and Canada pull together, you’re seeing that for every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction,” he said.