ASX trading in futures, shares rockets in March as investors grapple with turbulence
Futures contract volumes, including interest rate, commodities, ASX and energy bets, leapt 52 per cent in March on a year ago and were up 120 per cent on February.
Surging futures trading in March has dramatically underlined the volatility triggered by the Middle East war, which has also sidelined proposed raisings by WA resources companies.
ASX’s monthly activity report released on Wednesday shows futures trading volumes more than doubled in the first four weeks of the conflict as nervous investors bet on outcomes and prices.
Trading in shares during March was up a more modest 9 per cent on February. But over the past 12 months, those volumes have soared 46 per cent, reflecting both the S&P-ASX200’s record run and the period’s protracted turbulence.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.Investors are trading shares at a pace never seen before, trying to avoid being caught out by the war and US President Donald Trump’s overnight posts.
Since since the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran at the end of February, stock values and oil and gas prices have whipsawed daily.
It has left investors increasingly uncertain about where and when to invest.
According to Wednesday’s ASX data, the number of futures contracts, including interest rate, commodities, ASX and energy bets, leapt 52 per cent in March on a year ago to 34.33 million. From February, they were up 120 per cent.
Trading in options on futures soared 144 per cent.
If perhaps there is one surprise it’s that secondary fundraisings by ASX member companies through rights issues or share placements were still stronger than March last year when investors were bracing for US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.
The ASX says the total amount raised via secondary offers last month leapt 58 per cent on last year to $2.9 billion. However, that’s still well down on February’s $4.09b and leaves the financial year-to-date number off 23 per cent on 2025.
Brokers and corporate advisers insist that there’s no shortage of companies looking to raise cash for expansion or acquisition. But they say transactions are being delayed on doubts about how they should be priced because of cost fallouts from the Middle East conflict.
Investors hate volatility and uncertainty. And even Wednesday’s “double-sided” two-week ceasefire won’t assuage investor concerns.
The agreement between the US and Iran buys both time for a broader deal to end the six-week war while temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing pressures on global energy prices.
There’s relief from investors, a sentiment reflected in the spike in share prices and oil’s fall on Wednesday.
But while Mr Trump says the bombings will be suspended as long as the Strait is reopened fully, the agreement appears fragile given the US and Iran appear worlds apart on their respective demands.
Of concern for countries reliant on Middle East oil and gas, it potentially leaves Iran’s Armed Forces coordinating passage through the waterway and charging ship owners using the route.
That scenario would have long-term global implications for energy users and prices, further undermining energy security in countries including Australia and threatening elevated flow-on costs for Australian companies and consumers.
MST Financial energy analyst Saul Kavonic says oil markets will price in heightened risk for the Strait of Hormuz because “even with a peace deal, Iran may be emboldened to threaten the Strait more frequently in the future”.
Given the damage to Middle East energy plants, he sees oil prices returning to “a $US80 a barrel world rather than a $US60 a barrel world even in the more bearish scenarios from here”.
