RBA chief economist Sarah Hunter to deliver first speech since Federal Budget handed down, highly anticipated
Investors looking for clues on the next rates move will pick apart minutes from the Reserve Bank's May meeting and a speech by the RBA's chief economist.
The first speech by a Reserve Bank official since the Federal Budget will be watched closely by investors as debate rages over whether the Government has helped or hindered in the fight against inflation.
RBA chief economist Sarah Hunter will appear at the Bloomberg Forum for investment managers in Sydney on Tuesday, soon after a speech by Treasurer Jim Chalmers.
Dr Chalmers’s fifth Budget, released exactly a week earlier, has attracted blowback from the big end of town over changes to investor tax breaks and the use of trusts to minimise tax.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.But economists have also narrowed in on the Budget’s impact on the fiscal impulse - that is, how much the changes in the Budget add to or detract from overall demand and inflation.
NAB head of Australian economics Gareth Spence said the stance of the Budget was broadly neutral over the 2026/27 financial year and slightly eased demand over the subsequent three years.
“This will, of course, depend on the forecasts being realised, with the current year having been more stimulatory than expected at this time last year,” he said in a research note.
An upside surprise to public spending in the Budget added to the risk of more RBA rate hikes, HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said.
Alongside high inflation pressures and relatively resilient household spending amid the Middle East oil supply shock, it all painted a challenging picture for the RBA, Mr Spence said.
“(NAB’s) business survey aligns with anecdotal evidence that price pass-through is likely to be broad and of a significant magnitude given the size of the shock,” he said.
“A message we expect to be repeated by RBA’s Hunter tomorrow. The RBA no doubt also remains alert to any softening in activity and deterioration in the labour market - but business conditions and consumer spending data do not currently point to a major pull-back.”
NAB expects the RBA to raise rates for a fourth consecutive meeting in June.
Minutes from the board’s May meeting, also set to be released on Tuesday, would attract attention for how much the board’s stance had shifted to being more dependent on future data, said JP Morgan analysts Ben Jarman, Tom Kennedy and Tom Ryan.
The board’s post-meeting statement concluded by saying monetary policy was “well placed to respond to developments” which in the past had signalled a more neutral policy stance, they said.
“The board’s discussion of two-sided risks marks an important evolution in tone,” the trio said.
“(RBA governor Michele) Bullock’s characterisation of a fuel rationing scenario as a ‘different world’ and her distinction between cost pass-through into the price level versus broader changes in price-setting behaviour suggest a more nuanced framework than March’s singularly hawkish supply shock message.”
Money markets were pricing in at least one more rate rise by November but rated the chance of a June hike at less than one-fifth.
