RBA interest rates live updates: Central bank hold rates at 4.35pc as homeowners now await Bullock’s next move

VanEck’s head of investments and capital markets Russel Chesler say the market could be “seriously” underestimating the RBA appetite to increase rates.

The consensus is for a hold today at 4.35 per cent. But Mr Chesler said “while the market is not predicting another increase to the cash rate this year, we think that the market could very well be wrong”.

“On the data currently in front of us, there remains a strong case for the RBA to hike again,” he said.

“Although headline inflation fell in June, underlying inflation measured as the trimmed mean remained at 3.6 per cent well above the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3 per cent. We need the trimmed mean to fall and not remain at its current level.

“We have broad, domestically driven pressures, not temporary price movements the RBA can easily look through - housing remains the biggest pressure point, rising 6.8 per cent over the year to 30 June 2026, driven by electricity prices increasing 22.4 per cent, new dwelling costs rising 5.8 per cent and rents climbing 3.6 per cent.

“Households are also continuing to spend, up by 0.8 per cent in June, with discretionary spending up strongly, new car sales were up by 3 per cent.”

We’re just 45 minutes away from the RBA’s decision on official interest rates.

It’s a near-certainty that they stay on hold at 4.35 per cent.

More important will be Michele Bullock’s post-call commentary on where further monetary tightening will be needed.

Stay tuned and we’ll bring you all the details as they happen.

The ANZ bank is now forecasting that Sydney will suffer the sharpest fall in house prices since the early 1980s even if the Reserve Bank stops raising interest rates.

The big four bank has updated its forecasts to have a peak-to-trough fall of 14.5 per cent in Sydney, which would be more severe than the 13 per cent plunge from 2017 to 2019 following a banking regulator crackdown on interest-only loans.

Median house prices in Australia’s most expensive market peaked at $1.6 million in January and a more severe drop than the period before COVID would mark the most dramatic downturn since 1983 when the economy had been in the grip of a high-year recession.

Melbourne, another market where prices have been going backwards since February, was forecast to see a peak-to-trough decline of 12.8 per cent.

The strongest-performing markets since the pandemic were also tipped to suffer with ANZ forecasting a 7.9 per cent peak-to-trough decline in Brisbane and an equivalent 9.8 per cent plunge in Adelaide as Perth values fell 5.2 per cent from this year’s peak.

Capital city prices were forecast to fall by 4.3 per cent this year alone, following by 3.4 per cent drop next year when the Reserve Bank is expected to cut rates.

Sydney and Melbourne property values started falling in February when the Reserve Bank began the first of three rate hikes.

Prices in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth fell in June, a month after Labor’s fifth Budget since coming to power restricted negative gearing for investment properties exchange after Budget night to brand new properties from July next year, as the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount was replaced with indexation and a minimum 30 per cent tax.

These are the banks currently offering rates below 6 per cent.

If yours isn’t on here, is it time to think about switching as competition for your mortgage among lenders heats up.

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Canstar said 49 lenders were offering at least one variable rate below 6 per cent, up from 38 at the start of June.

As a result, 60 per cent of lenders have at least one variable rate starting with a 5.

Rate tracking by Canstar shows 31 lenders have cut new customer variable rates since the beginning.

A complacent borrower paying 6.97 per cent on a $600,000 laon would be paying $4229 a month, which would cost them $79,315 over two years.

Refinancing the same loan to 5.99 per cent would cost the same homeowner $3862 a month, or $68,723.

That’s a saving of $10,592.

Might be worth pressing your lender.

A global pandemic, tariff wars and now a six-month Middle East incursion that shows few signs of being resolved anytime soon.

The end result?

Higher prices and runaway inflation that requires a solution.

The answer?

Well, it’s the only one the Reserve Bank has in its tool kit ... and that’s to squeeze household via higher interest rates and in turn higher repayments on the mortgage, diverting spare cash into the home loan that (hopefully) stops us spending.

That eases demand, prices fall, inflation cools and rates start to moderate.

That’s a basic generalisation of how it works in an ideal economic world. But the past few years have been anything but ...

Quod erat demonstrandum ...

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With so many factors outside the control of the average Aussie family, those with a mortgage can only sit back and hope for the best ... and plan accordingly.

Westpac has blamed Reserve Bank interest rate hikes instead of just Budget tax changes on investment properties for plunging mortgage applications, with first-homebuyer activity remaining unchanged despite a housing market downturn.

Nathan Goonan, the bank’s chief financial officer, yesterday revealed an 18 per cent plunge in owner-occupier mortgage applications and a corresponding 26 per cent slump in investor loan applications since the May Budget, delivered a week after the third rate hike this year.

“I guess we’d probably draw some conclusion from that that the rate impact is probably equal or potentially a bigger impact than anything that happened in the Budget,” he told analysts on Monday in a conference call.

“You’ve got a mortgage market that has got a period of real dislocation whether it be through the Budget changes and then through rates.”

Overall mortgage applications had fallen by 20 per cent since the May 12 Budget, with loan applications 11 per cent below the five-year average, with a mortgage slowdown also expected in the September quarter.

Read more here

The Finance Brokers Association of Australia says Bullock and Co. must consider the “real world” before making today’s rates call.

“And in the real world people are hurting and mortgage stress is rising,” said CEO Leo Gagic.

“For the sake of these thousands of Australians just hanging on to their mortgage, I urge the RBA not to consider a rate rise today.”

The FBAA said new data by comparison group OurTop10 that shows an 18 per cent increase in national mortgage default risk is deeply concerning, but highlights growing financial pressure facing Australian households.

Mr Gagic said many households were reaching a financial tipping point after years of drawing down savings.

He urged those struggling to “be open and honest about your circumstances and contact your lender as early as possible. Don’t wait until you have missed a payment.”

“Explain your situation and ask to speak with the lender’s hardship team,” he said.

Mr Gagic said lenders may be willing to negotiate a more competitive interest rate or provide temporary relief measures such as reduced repayments, a repayment pause, an extended loan term, or a loan restructure.

“Clearly outline what has changed, what you can realistically afford, and provide any supporting information requested,” he said.

“This can help you and your lender agree on a sustainable arrangement that gets you back on track.”

Nearly three-quarters of car insurers have failed to explain the key factors driving up premiums, which have surged at twice the pace of inflation over five years.

Yet according to new findings from the corporate watchdog, almost one in three motorists who challenged their renewal bill won a cheaper price without changing their cover.

The average comprehensive premium jumped more than 42 per cent between June 2019 and June 2024, double the 21 per cent rise in consumer prices.

Premiums then rose another 8 per cent in the year to July 2025.

Australian Securities and Investments Commission commissioner Alan Kirkland said the findings showed customers’ loyalty was often not repaid.

“Insurers seem to be banking on the fact that lots of people don’t know that they can push back, or they think it’s going to be too hard,” he told The West Australian on Monday.

Read more here

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The Reserve Bank delivered three rounds of rate relief in 2025 ... then promptly snatched them away earlier this year as war-fuelled inflation soared.

The pain has been felt across the country, with millions of mortgageholders back to square one - and even worse off after factoring in higher grocery prices and the pain at the bowser.

Looking at the table below, it’s not hard to see why so may households are struggling to make ends meet and fear what even higher home loan repayments would do to their finances.

With Michele Bullock ruling nothing in or out at the last RBA meeting, Canstar warned homeowners to take steps to prepare.

It said getting just 0.25 knocked off your rate could protect your finances from any further hike .

Here’s how to approach the negotiations with your lender:

• Check your rate: Your target, as an owner-occupier should be under 6 per cent. It’s a stretch but there are now 49 lenders offering at least one variable rate under this mark.
• Check up on your own bank: See what it’s offering new customers. This 30-second check will show if you’re paying a loyalty tax.
• Arm yourself with two counter offers: This shows your bank you’re prepared to move if needed.
• Ask your bank for a rate review: Be polite, professional and precise.
• Be ready to walk: If they won’t budge, it could be time to switch to a lender willing to offer you its lowest advertised rate. Just make sure to factor in any switching fees before you make the leap.