Anora emerges as frontrunner after crucial wins in chaotic Oscars race

The chaotic 2025 Oscars race finally has a frontrunner after a weekend of award ceremonies that cemented indie movie Anora as the one to beat.

Anora took the top prize at the Producers Guild Award, the Directors Guild Award and Critics Choice Award.

The PGA and the DGA were even on the same night and director Sean Baker had to race from one event to the other to walk the stage a second time.

Anora, an entertaining, comedic and propulsive movie that playfully upends the Cinderella/Pretty Woman cliche, was made on a $US6 million budget and also won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival where it premiered in May.

It was considered a strong contender in the Oscars race but had previously not won many of the more recent precursor awards outside of critics’ circles.

With its six Academy Awards nominations, it was also well behind the leading contenders Emilia Perez (13 nominations), The Brutalist (10), Wicked (10), A Complete Unknown (eight) and Conclave (eight).

Baker was individually nominated for four of Anora’s nods (as writer, director, producer and editor), equalling a record held by the likes of Alfonso Cuaron for most nominations in a single year, while actors Mikey Madison and Yura Borisov were recognised for their performances.

The PGA-DGA double victory is a very strong sign that there is support for Baker’s film, which has grossed $US36 million globally.

The PGA is particularly significant because it has matched the Oscars in seven out of the past 10 years for best picture. It has a decent chunk of crossover voters, and it also uses a preferential voting ballot like the Oscars do in the best picture category.

This year has been an unusually open field with a handful of best picture hopefuls that could’ve persuasively been crowned the eventual winner. In 2024, Christopher Nolan film Oppenheimer was considered the early odds-on favourite and never wavered from that position.

But there have also been a series of controversies, some more damaging than others, that have dinged some of Anora’s rivals.

The most high-profile has been the furore surrounding Emilia Perez after its lead star, Karla Sofia Gascon, was exposed for problematic social media posts from five years earlier.

Gascon’s posts took aim at Muslim communities, George Floyd, the 2021 Oscars for awarding Daniel Kaluuya and Yuh-jung Youn, Chinese people and even wrote that Adolf Hitler “simply had his opinion of the Jews”.

Gascon initially issued an apology but then later posted multiple times and conducted an hour-long interview with CNN in Espanol in which she suggested she was the victim.

Only after Emilia Perez’s director Jaques Audiard publicly disavowed Gascon (“I have not spoken to her and I don’t want to”) did she post she will now stay silent.

Gascon’s Oscar nomination was supposed to represent social progress as the first openly transgender actor to be recognised for a performance, but the ensuing controversy has undermined any historic significance.

Netflix, which has the distribution rights to Emilia Perez in the US and UK, has reportedly stopped funding for any more of Gascon’s award season appearances, which would have included travel expenses and styling, and has stripped her out of campaign billboards and materials.

Any frontrunner status Emilia Perez may have enjoyed has vanished and the campaign is now just trying to insulate the rest of its nominations. Co-star Zoe Saldana still looks locked to win her category of supporting actress.

The Brutalist has also experienced its own wave of consternation after its editor, David Jansco, revealed the production had used AI to smooth out Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones’ Hungarian dialogue.

While not a fatal blow, but the Academy is now reportedly considering making AI use a mandatory disclosure rather than optional, as it currently is.

Wicked is still a strong prospect, especially as it was also a box office juggernaut, but the lack of a director’s nomination of John M. Chu is seen as going against it. The best picture winner rarely does not have a corresponding directing nomination.

There are still two important awards ceremonies remaining before the Oscars – the BAFTAs and the SAGs, however the SAGs will take place after Oscars voting closes.

The Oscars will be broadcast on Channel 7 and available to stream on 7plus on Monday, March 3