Oscars 2026: The leading contenders and what their chances are of winning
It’s less than a week out from the Oscars and it is an unusually strong year with a nominations slate of actually excellent films. Here’s what you need to know about the potential winners.
You know you’re getting to the pointy end of the awards season when stories about hating cats and ballet are resurfaced and shared, sparking outsized outrage on the internet.
Perhaps it’s a mark that this year’s Oscars campaigning has been relatively scandal-free, that the past few days of online discourse has been about Timothee Chalamet disrespecting high art and Jessie Buckley’s feline animus.
There were no moral crusades against racist tweets (Emilia Perez), AI use (The Brutalist) or questions over whether or not unionised workers were dudded (Anora), which marred last year’s awards season.
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There has always been some form of campaigning for the golden statuette, a lot of hobnobbing between stars and voters, special screenings and events, and endless rounds of publicity.
Millions of dollars are spent, sometimes more than the budget of the film, as was the case with the 2025 Best Picture winner, Anora. Its campaign cost $US18 million, according to its distributor, three times the film’s production budget of $US6 million.
But the modern Oscars campaign with its political flavour of aggressive whispers, and negative backgrounding was pioneered by disgraced mogul Harvey Weinstein in the late 1990s.
Weinstein was famously ruthless in his pursuit of Oscars glory and nothing was off limits. It was well known that he badmouthed to anyone who would listen – especially the press and voters – that Saving Private Ryan was only good for the first act.
Weinstein’s film, Shakespeare in Love, would go on to win Best Picture that year and contemporary reports from the night recalled Steven Spielberg at the Oscars after-parties, clutching his Best Director gong, looking miserable.
A quarter of a century later, Oscars campaigning is not as vicious as during the Weinstein era but remnants of those practices are still present, if not actually, then at least certainly in the perception.
Every time a negative story about a contender crops up, the first question is which rival film put that out there. Just as likely these days is that online sleuths dig these things up (the Chalamet and Buckley comments were made on camera in public forums weeks earlier) and the internet does what the internet does.
But, as we’ve all seen in the Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni feud, it’s not unfathomable that strings are being pulled behind the scenes by unscrupulous operators to influence online discourse.
Oscars campaigning can be fun to observe, not unlike political ones, but the circus of narratives and counter-narratives can be a distraction from what everyone is supposed to focus on: the work.
There’s less than a week to go before the big night (or, the big lunch, Australian time), so if you haven’t caught up with all the leading contenders, in particular the Best Picture nominees, here’s a handy guide, plus how to watch them.
It was an especially strong year with a slate of nominees that were (mostly) brilliant, and very few filler spots.
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
What’s it about: A former political revolutionary is forced out of hiding when an old foe comes looking for him and his teenage daughter. But really, it’s about politics in modern America.
What it’s nominated for: 13 Oscars including all the big ones such as picture, director, adapted screenplay, actor for Leonardo DiCaprio, supporting actor for Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro, supporting actress for Teyana Taylor.
Where it might win: It’s still the frontrunner for best picture despite a late-surging Sinners and Anderson is almost certain to win director and adapted screenplay. Penn is also pulling ahead in his category after winning both the BAFTA and the SAG. It’s also strong in cinematography and editing.
How to watch it: HBO Max, very select cinemas
SINNERS
What’s it about: Two black brothers return to the American south in the 1920s to build a juke joint only to be invaded by vampires on opening night. A cultural phenomenon that wrestles with the legacy of black music and American racism.
What it’s nominated for: A record 16 Oscars, in every category in which it was eligible, including picture, director, original screenplay, score and acting nods for Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo.
Where it might win: If anyone is going to take picture away from One Battle, it’s Sinners which has found a renewed wave of momentum in recent weeks. Ryan Coogler is the favourite to win in original screenplay and Ludwig Goransson in score, and it is also a strong shot in cinematography for Autumn Durald Arkapaw, who would become the first woman to triumph in that category and the first ever best casting Oscar. Jordan is in a three-way race in best actor and recently won the SAG.
How to watch it: HBO Max
MARTY SUPREME
What’s it about: A 1950s New York City hustler who creates chaos and misfortune in his singular pursuit of greatness, to become a world ping-pong champion.
What it’s nominated for: Nine Oscars, including picture, director, original screenplay, production design and best actor for Timothee Chalamet.
Where it might win: Chalamet was considered the frontrunner for months but then he lost both the BAFTA and SAG, which made him seem vulnerable. He was the film’s best shot, and while there is a lot of support for a sentimental win for veteran production designer Jack Fisk, there’s a chance Marty Supreme walks away with nothing.
How to watch it: In cinemas
THE SECRET AGENT
What’s it about: A university professor who is caught up in the turmoil of Brazil’s military dictatorship, who flees persecution by hiding out in the city of Recife during carnival. A potent portrait of authoritarianism and corruption.
What it’s nominated for: Four Oscars – picture, casting, international feature and best actor for Wagner Moura.
Where it might win: Moura is one of three contenders seemingly deadlocked in the best actor race, against Chalamet and Jordan. He won the Globe and is popular on the awards circuit. The film is also a strong chance at taking at international feature.
How to watch it: In cinemas
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
What’s it about: A filmmaker father and his two adult daughters, with whom he has a strained relationship after he left the family when they were children. The emotionally grounded Finnish movie is notable for its all-round magnificent performances.
What it’s nominated for: Nine Oscars including picture, director, original screenplay and acting nominations for all four of its core cast, Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgard, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas and Elle Fanning.
Where it might win: Skarsgard was a favourite to win in supporting actor but that race has now blown open with Sean Penn just edging ahead. It could also pick up in international feature.
How to watch it: In cinemas, digital rental
HAMNET
What’s it about: An emotionally raw imagined dramatisation of the life of Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright, and her grief when their son, Hamnet, dies.
What it’s nominated for: Eight Oscars, including picture, director, adapted screenplay, costume and actress for Jessie Buckley.
Where it might win: Buckley is almost a certainty to convert here, even with that late-breaking cat-hater “scandal”. She has consistently won everything this whole season and the best actress race is the only one pundits are confident about.
How to watch it: In cinemas, digital rental
FRANKENSTEIN
What’s it about: A maximalist adaptation of Mary Shelley’s story of Dr Victor Frankenstein and his abominable Creature. A fairy tale and allegory of man’s hubris trying to play god.
What it’s nominated for: Picture, supporting actor for Jacob Elordi and a raft of craft categories including production design, sound, make-up and hairstyling.
Where it might win: Frankenstein is likely to win in make-up and hairstyling for its elaborate prosthetics on the Creature which necessitated hours in the chair every day for Elordi, and it looks strong in costume design and production design. Elordi is an outside chance but given the chaos of most of the acting races, don’t count him out completely.
How to watch it: Netflix
TRAIN DREAMS
What’s it about: Starting in the early 20th century, it recounts the life of Robert, a railroad worker and logger who spends months away from his family eking out a living. It’s a tender portrait of an ordinary life.
What it’s nominated for: Picture, adapted screenplay, cinematography and original song for Nick Cave and Bryce Dressner.
Where it might win: Likely to be an also ran in its categories, Train Dreams’ strongest chance is in cinematography. It really is very beautifully shot, which is harder to appreciate at home on Netflix than it was during its very short, very limited cinema run.
How to watch it: Netflix
BUGONIA
What’s it about: A conspiracy theorist kidnaps a successful pharmaceutical executive because he’s convinced that she is secretly part of an alien race bent on controlling and destroying humanity.
What it’s nominated for: Four Oscars, including picture, actress for Emma Stone, adapted screenplay and score.
Where it might win: Bugonia isn’t a favourite anywhere, but two nods in acting and producing did make Stone, at 37, the youngest woman, and the second youngest person (to Walt Disney) to be nominated for seven Oscars over her career so far.
How to watch it: Digital rental
F1
What’s it about: A veteran racer who crashed out of the Formula One competition decades earlier is brought back to partner a young rookie.
What it’s nominated for: Four Oscars – picture, editing, sound and visual effects.
Where it might win: F1 has a chance in the sound and editing categories.
How to watch it: Apple TV, digital purchase
IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU
What’s it about: A woman raising a chronically ill child spirals into a mental breakdown when the ceiling in her apartment collapses while her husband is away and her job becomes overwhelming.
What it’s nominated for: Actress for Rose Byrne.
Where it might win: Byrne is running a distant second behind Buckley, but they don’t call them shock upsets for nothing, because it can happen. For Byrne, the awards attention for her anxiety-inducing, tour de force performance was long overdue.
How to watch it: Digital rental
BLUE MOON
What’s it about: A contained biopic-of-sorts of Lorenz Hart, an American songwriting supremo of the early 20th century. The film takes place on the opening night of Oklahoma!, the Broadway sensation of his former partner Richard Rodgers, which prompts Hart to ponder his own artistic relevance.
What it’s nominated for: Actor for Ethan Hawke, original screenplay.
Where it might win: Probably nowhere, but can you imagine if sentimental favourite Hawke pulled off a massive upset? It would be huge! This is Hawke’s fifth nomination (two previous for acting, two for screenplay), and if he managed it, it would be a career win for someone who has always been great and is generally artistically led.
How to watch it: Digital rental
WEAPONS
What’s it about: All but one kid in a year three class run out of their homes at 2.17 in the morning, and then disappears. A teacher, a parent, a criminal, a cop and a school principal all become enmeshed in a witchy plot.
What it’s nominated for: Supporting actress for Amy Madigan.
Where it might win: Madigan, who was previously nominated for an Oscar in 1986, could win, a rare victory for a performance in a horror film. She won the SAG and the Critics Choice, but is locked in battle against Sinners’ Mosaku and One Battle’s Taylor.
How to watch it: HBO Max
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
What’s it about: A former political prisoner in Iran comes across a man he suspected was his torturer in jail, and sets out to find others who can definitively identify him. A provocative film that asks thorny questions about revenge and justice.
What it’s nominated for: Original screenplay and international feature
Where it might win: International feature, although momentum for the film has fallen away despite being an early contender after it won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival.
How to watch it: In cinemas, digital rental
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
What’s it about: A KPop girl band who fights demons with the power of their music and fandom, but one of them is secretly half-demon and is in constant battle with her shame. Also known as the biggest pop cultural sensation of 2025.
What it’s nominated for: Animated feature and original song
Where it might win: Both awards it’s nominated for.
How to watch it: Netflix
