Oscar nominations: Emilia Perez tipped to head 97th Academy Awards

In the wake of devastating wildfires in Los Angeles that struck at the heart of the movie industry, nominations to the 97th Academy Awards are going ahead after a pair of delays.

The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences will announce the Oscar nominations early Friday AEDT via a wide array of platforms, including on Oscar.com, Oscars.org and the academy’s social network sites as well as on Disney+.

The Oscar nominations had originally been planned for January 17. But after wildfires on January 7 began burning through the Pacific Palisades, Altadena and other areas around Los Angeles, leaving behind historic levels of destruction, the academy extended its voting window and twice postponed the nominations announcement.

With so many in the film industry reeling from the fires, some called on the academy to cancel the Oscars altogether.

Academy leaders have argued the March 2 ceremony must go ahead, for their economic impact on Los Angeles and as a symbol of resilience for the industry.

Here are some of the things to look for:

How wide open is it?

Usually by this time, one or two movies have emerged as the clear favourites for best picture. Not so this year. Four films have been nominated for the top award from the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild: Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez and A Complete Unknown.

They are likely to be joined by Golden Globe-winner The Brutalist, the musical blockbuster Wicked and the sci-fi sequel Dune: Part Two. In the category’s 10 films, that leaves slots expected for A Real Pain and The Substance. The last spot could go to the prison drama Sing Sing, the journalism drama September 5 or Nickel Boys.

Of them all, Netflix’s contender Emilia Pérez could land the most nominations of all, and, possibly, set a new high mark for non-English language films.

Who gets left out in best actress?

As is often the case, best actress is extremely competitive. Most prognosticators expect nominations for Demi Moore (The Substance), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Mikey Madison (Anora) and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez). Who gets the fifth slot could go to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) or Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl). And that still leaves out Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Angelina Jolie (Maria).

Who could make history?

Gascón, the star of Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, is poised to become the first openly transgender actor nominated for an Oscar. Gascón, who plays both a male drug lord in the film and the woman she becomes, has spoken both passionately and sanguinely about the possibility of making Oscar history at a time with trans rights are imperiled.

“If it does happen, I would be so grateful,” Gascón said.

“It would be a beautiful thing. But if it doesn’t, whatever. I’d go back to my old life. I’ll do my grocery shopping. I’ll play with cats. I’ll see my family. Maybe I’ll do other jobs and people will like those jobs.”

Will best director be all male again?

For most of Oscar history, the best director category has been all male. That’s changed somewhat in recent years, with wins by Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) and Chloé Zhao (Nomadland). But this year may see another all-male group of Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown).

The two most likely female contenders are Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance).