Queensland set to pip Victoria in million dollar club as values rise

Queensland has been tipped to have more million-dollar suburbs than Victoria in 2025, according to new analysis.

There were 857 suburbs with a median house price of more than $1 million as of May this year, Ray White analysis revealed, 128 more than at the same time last year.

New South Wales had the most at 358, followed by Victoria with 176 and Queensland with 174.

If the average rate of growth from the past 10 years continued, 99 new suburbs would reach $1 million in the next year and Queensland would overtake Victoria, Ray White analysis found.

Suburbs that were likely to reach $1 million first were Narara in NSW, Gisbourne in Victoria and Birkdale in Queensland.

“These suburbs have already been benefiting from very high growth rates over the past 10 years,” Ray White Senior Data Analyst Atom Go Tian said.

“When we ran the data, we saw that, in the next 12 months, they have a high chance of reaching $1 million.”

He said more and more suburbs would start to see prices reach seven figures in the coming years, as values tended to roughly double over a 10 year period.

However, he said the rate of price-growth seen in the past three years was extremely rapid due to post-pandemic supply and demand pressures.

“Ideally, they go hand in hand — as the population grows, then supply grows. But what happened is, demand continued growing, but then supply had a hiccup over the pandemic. And so they’re trying to play catch up, but it’s just exponentially harder because pressures are higher,” Mr Go Tian said.

Those pressures included high building costs, planning restrictions and building companies becoming insolvent as a result.

Mr Go Tian said if housing supply increased, prices may correct over the following years, and then continue to increase at a steadier rate, as seen in the years just before 2020.

In Sydney, the majority of suburbs already had house values above $1 million — 90 per cent of them, Mr Go Tian said.

However, the next NSW suburb expected to clock $1 million was outside the metro area.

The data showed Narara’s mean house price was $993,596 in May, and that on average it saw 9.3 per cent annual growth in the past decade.

“Assuming prices grow another 9.3 per cent in the next 12 months then we can expect houses in Narara to reach $1,086,371,” Mr Go Tian said.

Narara agent Jodie Walsh from Property Central said family homes in the suburb were already consistently seeing prices surpass the $1 million threshold.

“Once you hit four beds it’s over a million,” Walsh said. “The locals say ‘who would have thought it?’”

She currently has a five-bedrooom house in Narara for sale with a price guide of $1.2 million to $1.29 million.

In Queensland, the beach-side Brisbane suburb of Birkdale would be the most likely to become a millionaire.

Its mean is currently just under $1 million at $997,867.

If it continued its average annual growth rate of 7.6 per cent, it would reach $1,073,584 in the next year.

Luke Humphreys from Bayside Property Agents said Birkdale attracted people because of its lifestyle.

“It’s close to the water and close to the islands and only 30 minutes from the airport,” Humphreys said.

He said older-style brick family homes in the area were reaching $1 million, and if they were fully renovated they garnered another $200,000 or $300,000.

He currently has a four-bedroom home with pool that has just hit the market.

Victorian suburb Gisborne, just outside Melbourne’s metro was the most likely to hit $1 million there if it saw the average annual growth of 7.5 per cent.

Houses on the market in Gisborne today ripe for a rise in value includes this four-bedroom property currently listed for $775,000 to $790,000.

Mr Go Tian said though the potential rate of growth was speculative, it was interesting to identify areas that had seen prices shoot up in the past decade.

This article originally appeared on view.com.au