AARON PATRICK: The Budget changed everything for Anthony Albanese, Labor trust drops as One Nation surges

The 2026 Budget looks like the moment everything changed for the Albanese Labor government.

On Monday morning, an opinion poll reported a figure that would have seemed inconceivable two months ago: 57 per cent of voters believe the Labor Party does not deserve re-election and the time has come to give another party a shot, according to a 1700-person survey by Michael Horner.

That’s because Anthony Albanese’s and Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ decision to break a promise and increase taxes on investments, especially housing, has ruptured many voters’ trust in the government, including Labor supporters.

As anyone who’s been in a relationship knows, once you lose trust, it is difficult to win back.

“It’s shocking how rapid people’s views of the government have darkened in response to the Budget,” Mr Horner told The Nightly. “The biggest driver appears to be a lack of trust and the lack of consent for the government’s proposed measures.”

The broken promise seems to have inflicted more political damage on the government than the tax increases, which may directly affect less than 10 per cent of Australians each year, based on a rough estimate of the number of people who pay capital gains tax and use trusts. The abolition of negative gearing for established homes only applies to future purchases.

Lost trust

Most voters do not feel they can believe Mr Albanese and Dr Chalmers when they promise not to increase or introduce other taxes, including the most sensitive of all: death duties and taxes on increases in the value of your own home, the most important store of wealth for most Australians.

“By a margin of 3-1, they no longer trust the government to keep its promises on tax,” said Mr Horner, owner of the Melbourne-based Fox & Hedgehog research firm. “Even half of Labor voters no longer have confidence Labor will keep its word on taxing the family home or death taxes.”

In other words, the Budget has shifted how Australians perceive the government and its leaders. The Labor Party, returning to its roots in the left, is seen as using taxes on business and above-average earners to redistribute wealth and pay for more welfare, subsidies and a larger public service.

Mr Albanese would not have annoyed voters as much if he and Dr Chalmers had proposed the changes before the last election. But the Labor Party would have been unlikely to secure the largest majority in its history, even against then Liberal-leader Peter Dutton, running on a tax-the-rich platform.

You might call it a buy-now, pay-later election strategy.

The electoral consequences of the Budget disillusionment are not straightforward. Even though the Coalition may have moved in front for the first time since the election, at 51 to 49 per cent on Mr Horner’s figures (but behind 49-51 on an AFR/Redbridge/Accent survey out Sunday), One Nation’s rise has made it harder to interpret how polls might translate into seats.

Pauline for PM?

In a two-bloc electoral system, pollsters rely on what is known as the two-party preferred vote to translate their data into parliamentary seats. But that doesn’t work when the electorate is split three ways because of small-but-pivotal differences in individual seats that can’t be detected in a national poll.

Labor is on 29 per cent, One Nation on 27 per cent and the Coalition on 25 per cent, according to the Fox & Hedgehog figures, which were first published in the News Corp tabloids. The poll’s 3.1 per cent margin of error means, essentially, it is a toss-up.

The Redbridge poll has the Coalition further behind, on 20 per cent, and One Nation leading on a whopping 31 per cent, which helps explain why leader Pauline Hanson is talking about shifting from the Senate to the lower house, where the prime minister sits.

“I believe that I have the ability to do it,” she told Sky News on Sunday when asked about leading a government. “I’m not going to underestimate myself.”

A year ago, the idea of Senator Hanson living in The Lodge would have seemed fanciful. Today, the prospect is being reported respectfully.

Which suggests that many voters have changed their views of Senator Hanson and Mr Albanese, at least for the moment. The prime minister showed with the failed Voice referendum that he can come back from a major defeat. But that was an error of judgement, not the deception many voters see in the Budget.