ANDREW BRAGG: Labor’s 5 per cent deposit scheme is failing miserably

The Government has failed on housing on a number of fronts. There has been the failure of their Housing Australia Future Fund to build homes. There has been a collapse in housing construction from an average of 200,000 homes a year between 2013 and 2022 which is down to 170,000.

To date, Labor is more than 80,000 homes short, a quarter of the way into their 1.2 million housing target. The Government’s National Housing Supply and Affordability Council predicts Labor will fall 262,000 dwellings short of its own target. No State or Territory is forecast to meet the share of the target.

There has also been a failure to deliver a meaningful reduction of red and green tape, despite promising red tape removal at the August 2025 economic reform roundtable.

These are all supply failures. But there is also a significant failure on the demand side of the market — the 5 per cent deposit scheme.

The Prime Minister announced 5 per cent deposits — without any means test or place caps — during the May 2025 election. He didn’t bother to model the impact on prices from this free-for-all.

He and his Housing Minister Clare O’Neil only bothered to commission Treasury modelling into the price impacts of unlimited government-guaranteed 5 per cent deposits in July 2025 — three months later.

From the limited amount of information available about this modelling exercise, Treasury say house prices would rise by 0.6 per cent “over the medium-term”, but this is not defined and it ignores immediate price spikes that affect borrowers.

Unfortunately, research house Cotality reported the prices for entry level first homes went up by 3.6 per cent in the first quarter of the scheme’s operation for homes under Labor’s price cap (December quarter 2025).

So the 0.6 per cent was wiped out in the first month, let alone the first quarter or first year.

This reckless programme has made it so much harder for younger Australians.

It means the prices they are forced to pay are too high — higher than they should have been.

It also means their mortgages are bigger.

And it means people who shouldn’t have needed to use the 5 per cent deposit scheme have been forced into it because they can no longer afford a regular mortgage.

So was this reckless politics, reckless economics or both? To get the answer, we need to see the modelling from July 2025 which surely warned the government of the risks.

I have tried to get access to this modelling in three ways on behalf of the Australian people, who deserve to know the truth.

The Albanese Government thinks it is above the law.

Firstly, through the Senate orders. On 24 July 2025, the Senate agreed to my motion to produce “any Treasury advice since 1 January 2025 regarding enabling first home buyers to purchase with a 5 per cent deposit”.

After further efforts in September and October 2025, nothing was produced.

Secondly, I used Freedom of Information laws.

In October 2025, I asked for the Treasury modelling via FOI by seeking access to “modelling regarding the market and housing price impacts caused by the Government’s expansion of the Home Guarantee Scheme”.

The initial response I received was please pay $415.67 if you want to see the documents.

A heavily redacted document was finally provided in January 2026.

It merely showed the 0.6 per cent number but it didn’t provide any context or detail. It didn’t supply a statement of risks or assumptions such as the price and supply responses, which surely would have accompanied the modelling relied upon by the Prime Minister.

Thirdly, I used the investigative powers of Senate Estimates.

I asked Treasury officials for the information during multiple Senate hearings. I asked why the documents had been so redacted? Why is this information being kept from the Australian people?

The net result of all of this effort and use of taxpayer money and resources so far has been nil. We have not been able to get the information, but it has shown one thing.

This is the most secretive Government since the Keating government, according to the Centre for Public Integrity.

Their housing cover-up is a disgrace. It is emblematic of their secrecy but also highlights their failure on housing.

Labor is spending more than $80 billion on housing to build fewer houses. Australia is getting 30,000 fewer houses each year under Labor, despite this massive investment of taxpayer funds.

No wonder they want to cover up. But we will never give up on exposing waste and maladministration in housing as we develop housing policies to save the Australian Dream.

Senator Andrew Bragg is the shadow housing minister