ANDREW CARSWELL: Albanese’s man problem and why voters are switching off

For two exhausting months, he has crisscrossed the country, packed his schedule with electorate visits, smashed through an exhaustive catalogue of media engagements, and thrown buckets of cash to solve one political problem after the next.

A veritable whirlwind of activity, appearances and appeasement. The “I’ve been everywhere man” of Australian politics. A one-man band on a nationwide tour that apparently no one bought tickets to.

But judging by the most recent opinion polls, the more he speaks, the more he turns up, the more he fronts a camera, the more damage he inflicts.

On himself.

Because after two months of frenzied activity, Australians just aren’t picking up what the Prime Minister is putting down. They have turned down the volume on Anthony Albanese, and it is now abundantly clear he is a thoroughly diminished Prime Minister in the eyes of middle Australia.

This is especially clear among men who initially gave Albanese a chance but quickly become unsettled and disillusioned by his tepid leadership and allergy to anything remotely masculine in approach — men who have made up their minds and won’t be swayed.

That certainly does not mean Albanese will face the embarrassment of being bustled out of government after one term. Voters are still sizing up the alternative.

They haven’t truly made up their mind on Peter Dutton, although that number is steadily decreasing by the day.

Albanese might scrape through, clinging desperately to an unstable, ragtag alliance of crossbench opportunists and ideologues.

It is more likely than not, despite what the polls suggest, given the swing towards the Coalition is far from uniform, and may be falling in the seats deemed a stretch too far.

But it does mean Albanese’s voice and his mere presence are now detracting from Labor’s tally on a daily basis. If his mouth is moving, his vote is going down.

Every time he pops his head up on the TV. Every time he discards his talking points and deploys his signature meandering speechcraft. Every time he rambles on about his impending nuptials, his pampered pooch, the alleged perils of Peter Dutton. Every time he defends his Government’s apparent actions on cost of living or wastefully spends taxpayer money when taxpayers are struggling to spend anything on themselves.

The more people switch off. Whether subconsciously or by determined choice.

It has obviously been brewing. It started with a growing disconnect between the Prime Minister’s words and priorities, and the reality of what households were facing.

That disconnect deepened into outright scepticism — a refusal to accept his words as anything more than political spin and empty rhetoric.

Now, the volume has been turned down completely. The switch has been flicked.

From this place of apparent desertion — defined by his own -21 approval rating in Newspoll and his party’s dismal 25 per cent primary vote in Resolve — do we honestly think Albanese could resurrect his public standing in the maelstrom of an election campaign when voters will actually see more of him?

“More of him” hasn’t exactly been helpful so far this year. In this current faux campaign being foisted on Australians, voters have recoiled from such overbearing omnipresence. Why would they warm to it in a real campaign, where the daily appetite for media is irrepressible?

It’s hard to fall in love again after you’ve visited the divorce lawyer, divided the assets and split the kids. Sure, it happens. But it requires compromise. Humility. Introspection. Owning some responsibility.

Things we won’t see in an election campaign.

Instead, Labor’s campaign will be a relentless character attack on Peter Dutton — an all-out effort to drag down his improved standing, effectively a white flag from Labor HQ, which has failed dismally to get the PM to change his stripes. To be better. Even fractionally better.

Expect a ruthless retelling of Dutton’s history, missteps, and myths, real or imagined, all to amplify the risk of change.

It appears that is all Anthony Albanese has left in the tank. All out attack.

This tactic is purely designed to exploit the growing gender gap in politics. To convince Australian women, who aren’t exactly gravitating towards Peter Dutton en masse, that there is inherent risk in political revolution.

That what was being offered by the Coalition is an affront to their progressive ideals and an attack on the sanctity of health and education.

This is Albanese’s pathway to a second term. To convince enough women to stay in his camp, knowing the men have already jumped the fence and bolted.

This stark gender divide in political ideology is not isolated to Australia. According to Gallup, there is now a 30 percentage point gap in the political differences of increasingly conservative young men and increasingly progressive women in the US.

In the German election at the weekend, that same figure was produced for voters aged between 18 and 30, while in the UK the gap is 25 percentage points.

It bodes poorly for Albanese. Unless women hold the line.

If they are still listening.