ANDREW CARSWELL: Independents’ voting records reveal their leftist allegiance 

Perhaps some do it completely unaware of the consequences.

Others, maybe because it’s trendy; a social status symbol in well heeled but socially progressive suburbs.

For some, a protest at a two-party system that has allegedly failed them. A genuine thirst for more diverse representation.

But let there be no mistake, no matter what the reasons are — valid or vapid — a vote for a teal candidate in Melbourne and Sydney’s once blue Liberal heartland seats of Kooyong, Goldstein, Warringah and McKellar is a vote for three more years of a now deeply unpopular Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister.

As the electoral math tightens ahead of a likely May Federal election, the Federal teal cohort is poised to play the role of kingmaker. This is despite their numbers shrinking due to the wonderful graces of AEC re-distributions and some voters reclaiming the wisdom they momentarily set aside in 2022.

Such a scenario is galling: that a party of independents representing predominantly centre-right constituents, where the Labor primary vote rarely creeps above 20 per cent, would empower a Labor minority government over a Coalition government if push came to shove.

It is not a hypothetical scenario, but one made abundantly clear from the voting records of teal MPs, who voted with the Greens between 73 and 81 per cent of the time on bills before the House of Representatives in the first two years of the current term.

That included a motion from the Greens accusing Israel of “war crimes” in Gaza, with teals Kylea Tink and Sophie Scamps rising in support.

They not only sit next to the Greens in Parliament. They are in striking solidarity.

No doubt the teals will face questions during the campaign about their stance in a hung parliament. Yet, they’ll choose obfuscation over the openness their constituents deserve.

But don’t be fooled by their carefully curated public personas. Scrutinise their voting records, which reveal a deep alignment with leftist agendas. Examine their policy manifestos, which champion divisive identity politics under the guise of progress, and advocate for policies that will harm our economy at a time when we need it to shine. Run a lens over the character, history, and objectives of their key financial backer, Simon Holmes à Court, whose influence and motives warrant scrutiny.

And understand where your vote is eventually landing. His name is Anthony Albanese.

To see where this is all headed, it’s best to understand the electoral math based on current polling, which while placing the Coalition ahead of Labor, still sees them short of forming a government.

Let’s assume Labor loses Lyons in Tasmania which is already on a knife-edge at 0.9 per cent. Add the loss of Chisholm, Dunkley and Aston in Victoria, Bennelong, Gilmore and Robertson in NSW, Tangney in WA, and the possibility of Lingiari in the NT given it is line ball. With Higgins taken out in a redistribution, that leaves Labor on 68 seats in a now 150-seat parliament..

That moves the Coalition to 64. Add the seats of Calare (NSW) and Monash (Victoria) now occupied by rogues who had dummy spits and left the Coalition party rooms, and you get 65. Although there are some concerns within the Nationals that Andrew Gee might be harder to jimmy out of Calare than first thought. The Coalition are confident of their chances in the Queensland Greens-held seats of Ryan and Brisbane, with popular Trevor Evans recontesting the latter. That gives the Coalition 68 seats.

Most pollsters have the Coalition ahead in one teal seat (Goldstein) and 50/50 in two other seats (Curtin in WA and Josh Frydenberg’s old seat of Kooyong). It is likely they claim the first two, which takes them to 71 with the inclusion of Bullwinkel, the new WA seat where the Libs are marginally favourite.

All this assumes the Coalition does not lose a seat, which may be foolhardy given the popularity of the SA Premier puts the seat of Sturt at risk, as does the retirement of Warren Entsch in Leichhardt , while there are renewed teal threats in Wannon (Vic), Bradfield (NSW) and Cowper (NSW).

Let’s assume the probability of losing one of those seats is offset by an unexpected gain, as always happens. This could come from aspirational Blair (QLD), which is definitely in play, or, on a strong day, the Victorian seat of McEwen which sits at a reachable 3.9 per cent after redistribution.

To form government, Labor will need the support of the two remaining Greens, and six independents. Andrew Wilkie will be a lock for Albanese, while Rebekha Sharkie, Bob Katter, and Dai Le will lean towards Peter Dutton, giving him 74.

Which leaves the more Labor-leaning teals Sophie Scamps, Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan and teal attachment Helen Haines, giving Labor 75.

The decision of Allegra Spender, a teal whose economic views are slightly more conservative than her peers, is the great unknown. What is not unknown is the widespread discontent with the current Labor government among Jewish Australians — 18,000 of whom reside in Spender’s electorate of Wentworth. Would she dare?

Never has one’s vote been so important.

Andrew Carswell is a former adviser to the Morrison government