ANDREW CARSWELL: Recent Coalition stumbles will help sharpen their focus when the campaign kicks off

It might not feel like it, deep within the bowels of a usually unflappable Coalition campaign team.

But the Coalition’s recent policy stumbles and missteps, the unexpected brain farts, the outbreak of ill-discipline that have all combined to take the wind out of the Coalition’s sails in the last three weeks is, well, highly advantageous.

Fortuitous, even. Probably even a Godsend. Yes, the Lord moves in mysterious ways.

Given the political commentary suggesting this pre-campaign mensis horribilis has damaged the Coalition’s chances of taking the fight up to Labor in the upcoming election, such a claim may appear either hopelessly naïve or wilfully delusional.

But better to have your worst three weeks in opposition before the election campaign kicks off, than during it — when voters are actually paying attention to what’s going on in Canberra.

Even that term “worst” is a bit harsh. Under Peter Dutton, this Coalition has been a picture of discipline and unity, the latter being the Achilles heel of the Liberals and Nationals marriage of convenience, usually because of the latter’s tendency to grandstand on behalf of its regional folk.

Dutton has not only kept the ship steady, its cannon have been firing with precision.

So yes, we are unfairly judging Dutton and his team for three unfortunate weeks, ignoring the three years of good behaviour up to that point.

Suggesting the wheels are falling off is equally harsh. There’s just a few nuts slightly loose. We are talking about the need for a tyre iron, not a brand new set of Pirellis.

This surprising run of dysfunction will only make the Coalition stronger and more match-fit for the campaign proper. Stumbles tend to sharpen the focus, iron out the kinks, hone the message, reinforce the need for discipline, and exorcise any hubris.

And while awkward, these missteps clearly highlight to Team Dutton what will work in the cut and thrust of a political campaign. And more importantly, what will not work.

Here is a quick and dirty reminder: Thought bubbles on immigration referendums? Probably not. Front benchers correcting each other on key policies? Probably not. On again-off again-on-again policy announcements? Probably not.

Just to be clear.

But great. Awesome. Terrific. You’ve got it out of your system.

Now game face.

Better to stumble out of the blocks on the training track, well before you line up in the final. My word, you’ll be as balanced as a ballerina when the starter’s pistol sounds for real.

So, advantageous, if you will. Hardly a reason to panic or despair, and certainly no cause to heave around the hyperbole claiming that it’s ‘advantage Albanese’ or that Dutton has somehow squandered his shot at a miracle win.

It’s not. And he hasn’t.

It’s awfully hard to make either case when the polls have only shifted marginally, and importantly, shifted marginally off a very high base for an opposition which was preparing for a long stint on the sidelines, only to be thrust into contention courtesy of Albanese’s awful tenure.

The real game hasn’t even started yet. Calm down. Nobody is even watching.

But they’re about to.

Advantage Dutton.

In this critically important Budget week, we’ve reached the pivot point — the moment the Coalition must turn the page on its recent missteps and present itself as a credible alternative government, with a clear plan to revive a struggling economy and offer aggrieved voters a sense that the worst is behind us.

To give them belief that the Coalition’s economic plan — once announced — will be the best course for the nation.

This is the key objective now. The economic plan. Nothing more, nothing less.

No more fiddling around the edges and trying to find your campaign feet. No more blustering immigration and national security offerings, given the Coalition already has a 17-point lead over Labor on those key issues. The lead doesn’t need to be 18 points. That money is already banked.

But despite the Coalition’s historic advantage, it is yet to boast a decisive lead over Labor on who has the best economic credentials.

Tell us how you will do a better job managing Australia’s economy and returning it to health. That’s all.

This pivot point coincides with Dutton’s budget reply speech on Thursday night. Arguably the most important speech in his political career. A moment of consequence, not because millions of Australians will be glued to their screens. The Rabbitohs are playing. Dogs Behaving Badly is on. Pre-weekend beers are calling.

But that doesn’t make it any less significant. For the Coalition ranks, for the media commentariat, and for the shape of the campaign to come, this is a moment that matters.

It’s the chance to draw a line under the clumsiness, reset the narrative, and prove once and for all that the Coalition has what it takes to land an economic message, cut through the noise, and give Australians a reason to believe it has the answers.

Because if not now — when?