ANDREW CARSWELL: It wasn’t all good political fortune from the almost-cyclone for Anthony Albanese

It was the speech that momentarily saved Anna Bligh.

The then Queensland premier was fighting for her political future, fending off rumours of an impending coup, with Labor’s primary sinking to a ghastly 29 per cent.

Before the heavens opened in January 2011, and floods ravaged South East Queensland in a disaster that killed 33 people and caused $2.3 billion of property damage.

Bligh’s emotional speech on January 12 — “We are Queenslanders. We’re the people that they breed tough. We’re the ones that they knock down, and we get up again” — was leadership writ large, the perfect balance of empathy and stoicism, backed up by action.

And while it may have merely put a stay of execution on Blight’s tenure, it was certainly a rallying call moment for other political leaders to watch and learn.

Labor’s new attack dog Murray Watt certainly took notes. He was Bligh’s chief of staff at the time. As did Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who joined his boss Wayne Swan in the gumboots and put his shoulder to the wheel to clear homes and help vulnerable residents.

Even fallen PM Kevin Rudd got his legs wet, sloshing through the flooded streets with suitcases over his head, impervious to the claims that this was his debut act of manual labour. Julia Gillard was incensed at his apparent selfish selflessness, stealing media attention away from a floundering PM. But opportunities have to be taken.

It may seem like a callous proposition. But smart politicians never waste a crisis.

So perhaps it is no wonder Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was the eager beaver on the spot when Cyclone Alfred bore down on Queensland, giving his daily media briefings alongside emergency and defence personnel, digital maps flashing behind him, promising a world of help for stricken households. Hitting the airwaves with vital information and a message of hope amid despair.

A man derided for his inaction had suddenly morphed into an action man.

This was a potential Bligh moment; a chance for him to show what he had failed to deliver in three frustrating years in the top job.

Leadership.

Australians saw it. Not just Queenslanders battening down the hatches that were glad he showed up (even though he was back in the comfort of Canberra when the storms were at their fiercest), but those further afield who had long wondered what Albanese would do in an actual crisis, given the only ones he had experienced were self-inflicted.

This loomed as a defining moment in the lead up to the Federal election. Could a cyclone save Albanese?

When the cyclone weakened before landfall and the winds receded faster than expected, the prospect of a dramatic political reset for the Prime Minister faded along with the floodwaters.

Still, despite his over-eagerness, Albanese managed to claw back some support — if only by showing up when it mattered. His steadily declining fortunes in the published polls have somewhat moderated, with his surprise display of leadership coming on the back of a good two weeks for the government.

A Medicare announcement that seemed to hit the spot. A concerted hit job on Peter Dutton that while missed the mark, showed they could actually dominate a week in politics.

But it wasn’t all good political fortune for Albanese from the almost-cyclone. It forced the PM into the unenviable position of delaying the election and heading to Budget town.

This renewed support, tenuous at best, will be sorely tested in the coming weeks as the Government scrambles to maintain its hard-won momentum heading into the Budget, knowing it will need every ounce of public goodwill to weather what’s printed in those hallowed books.

Spoiler alert: Budget deficits to eternity, red ink splashed across the balance sheet, and record Government spending. Traditionally reserved economists will be apoplectic. Commentators scathing. Opposition salivating.

A Budget before an election has traditionally been an advantageous opportunity to control the political narrative and news cycle, before selling its wares on the campaign trail.

But what story does this Budget tell, beyond mismanagement and a flagrant disregard for taxpayers’ money?

Even before the Budget sales pitch begins, the Government faces an awkward two weeks in political no-man’s land, where the real risk isn’t just economic, but reputational.

Failing to swiftly deliver financial assistance to those impacted by the Queensland storm and rising floodwaters could unravel hard-won support before a single budget figure is released. Anyone who has worked in government realises that this is the biggest danger confronting Albanese in his steady march to the polls.

The rumblings of stricken households still waiting for their government assistance will hijack days on the campaign trail. Standby for Ian from Ipswich coming to you live on Sunrise from his still-muddy lounge room. It will be a choir of criticism.

Why is this a fait accompli? Because governments are very good at crafting emergency funding programs to deliver assistance.

Just not great at the delivery bit.

Suddenly it won’t matter that Albanese merely turned up.

Andrew Carswell is a former adviser to the Morrison government