ANDREW GREENE: Anthony Albanese’s farewell tour may have already begun as Labor leadership grumbles grow

Midway through the Albanese Government’s second term, voter frustration and disappointment has set in, and the grumblings among its own MPs over leadership are growing louder.

According to this week’s Newspoll, Labor’s popularity has slumped to a near-record low of 27 per cent, a figure not seen since 2012, and One Nation continues its hold as the most popular political party in the nation.

Anthony Albanese’s personal approval ratings are now the lowest of any Australian prime minister since Malcolm Turnbull was removed in 2017, and Labor’s primary vote is only just above the 26 per cent it had when Julia Gillard was replaced by Kevin Rudd.

The more pessimistic figures inside the Government are now reminding their colleagues that no major party leader in recent times has ever recovered from a primary vote of just 27 per cent.

“We learnt all the wrong lessons from Rudd Gillard. ‘Oh, we rolled Rudd when we shouldn’t have and it went bad. Ergo, we can’t ever roll anyone again’,” remarks one Labor insider.

“If this was a State leader or an opposition leader, he’d be in a coffin already, he’s terminal and everybody is in denial about it. We’ve lost our senses.”

After a parliamentary sitting fortnight dominated by debate on immigration and the economy, Labor MPs are now back in their electorates hearing directly from grumpy constituents.

“There’s a real sentiment among even our closest supporters that they don’t know what our government really stands for now. They’re angry about the cost of living and now looking at Pauline Hanson to give us a kick in the shins,” says one MP.

On Monday ANZ become the latest major lender to predict there would be two more interest rate hikes before Christmas, adding to the cost-of-living crisis being felt by a growing number of Australians.

For the Government all the looming macroeconomic signs are pointing to further bad news; more interest rate rises before Christmas, stubbornly high oil prices because of the war in the Middle East, bond markets on fire and a strained Federal Budget.

As Treasurer Jim Chalmers this week warns of the challenges ahead for Australia over the next four decades amid rising cost of living, stubborn inflation and falling productivity, the Prime Minister is in New York rubbing shoulders with celebrities.

There is never an ideal time for Australian leaders to travel overseas, but some in Labor believe the Prime Minister’s hectic travel schedule for the rest of the year will not be well received by the public as they struggle to make ends meet.

This week Mr Albanese is also due to accept a “global citizen” award from the Atlantic Council think tank, on the sidelines of the UN, mixing with the Formula 1 boss and big-name celebrities like Wicked star Cynthia Erivo and John Wick actor Keanu Reeves.

Challenged on Monday by The Nightly’s Latika M. Bourke about whether he felt like a “fraud” for accepting the honour despite falling economic standards in Australia, the PM responded with a terse “no”.

Back in Australia, Government insiders acknowledge the political pain for Anthony Albanese is almost certain to drag on through Christmas and New Year, and some are beginning to quietly speculate if a Labor leadership change could occur in 2027.

Those who believe the move is necessary to improve Labor’s standing before the next election, due by May 2028, say the Prime Minister could choose to handover after next year’s Budget, or even be forced out by his colleagues before then.

“Until now our leader has been struck by the best political fortune — he had a shocker of an election campaign in 2022, but it didn’t matter because he was up against Scott Morrison to become prime minister,” one Labor figure notes.

“Last time he had even more luck when Peter Dutton was opposition leader and Donald Trump decided to unveil crippling tariffs, but that luck won’t be guaranteed next time,” the Government MP adds.

Labor MPs could also do well to study the failed campaign by the Democrats in the 2024 US presidential elections when the strategy seemed to rely on warnings to vote for the party or get Donald Trump as president again.

Similarly hoping that a Coalition victory (possibly with the support of One Nation) in Victoria’s November State election will also jolt wavering voters towards again backing Labor is also very optimistic thinking.

The Albanese government is now running out of time and options to begin turning around Australia’s economic conditions to lift the general mood of voters leading into the next election expected in 2028.

And if Labor’s primary support remains stuck at around 27 per cent beyond Christmas, this month’s Prime Ministerial visit to the US could very well end up being part of Anthony Albanese’s global farewell tour.