ANDREW GREENE: Despair descends on Canberra as One Nation rises

So dire is the Federal Coalition’s political standing that members of the Albanese Government are starting to feel sorry for their Liberal and Nationals opponents and are genuinely worried that One Nation will soon take their place as the formal opposition.

Last week as the Government continued to face voter anger over its broken budget promises, Labor MPs watched on in Parliament as Opposition Leader Angus Taylor and his less experienced frontbench team tried to land hits, mostly with no success.

“They look absolutely gone. They look depressed and it’s sad to think about the prospect of One Nation possibly becoming the next main opposition party,” one veteran Labor MP lamented.

The mood of gloom and despair is growing among Liberal and Nationals MPs who now seem resigned to losing even more seats at the next election, this time to the One Nation juggernaut.

Newspoll has not helped to improve the mood, with this week’s survey confirming One Nation’s primary vote soaring past Labor’s for the first time, but alarmingly the Coalition’s position was down to where it was when Sussan Ley was dumped as leader.

Since the election in May last year the Coalition’s primary vote has gone backwards from 31.8 per cent to 18 per cent, while Labor’s support has dropped from 34.6 to 30, while One Nation now boasts the highest party backing at 31.

If that scenario was to be repeated at the time of the next election, due by mid-2028, political experts believe Pauline Hanson’s party could command more than 50 seats in Parliament’s Lower House, well above the Coalition which may be left with just six.

Labor’s commanding 94-seat majority is certain to also be slashed, but optimistic party strategists believe it will likely still be able to form government on its own, by winning between 78 and 84 seats.

They point to the recent South Australian election where Labor was able to clinch some State seats off the back of preferences from Coalition voters who could not bring themselves to vote for One Nation.

“Labor’s going to get a lot more preferences next time if the alternative is Pauline Hanson,” one Government insider predicts.

Liberal frontbencher and veteran strategist James McGrath is urging calm, pointing out that it will take six to 12 months for the Coalition to improve its standing as it develops polices under the new leadership of Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan.

“We all admit that we’ve got to be a lot better, and they’re seeing what minor parties are saying and they think ‘well this looks agreeable’ but it’s not unusual for a minor party to get big hits mid-term,” Senator McGrath observed on Monday.

Late on Friday after another forgettable week in Parliament, the Liberal Party finally announced who would take on the herculean task of winning back seats at the next election, confirming former Nationals boss Lincoln Folo as its new Federal director.

The appointment of recruiting a recent Federal Nationals director to run the Liberals has caused some disquiet in Opposition ranks, but newly elected party president Tony Abbott insists Mr Folo is the ideal choice to begin salvaging the once dominant political organisation.

“Lincoln brings extensive experience in political campaigning, organisational leadership and party administration. He has earned a strong reputation as a capable and effective operator, committed to the values and principles that have long underpinned our party,” the ex-PM said.

Others say Mr Folo’s selection was probably the best option of all the candidates on offer but also highlights the dearth of talent inside Liberal Party ranks at both the State and Federal level.

As the Coalition continues to lick its wounds and contemplate further damage from One Nation’s surge, Labor is not dismissing the results of successive polls that show increasing voter resentment towards its own performance.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval is now at a record low of minus 24, with just 36 per cent of Newspoll respondents saying they were satisfied with his performance compared to 60 per cent who are dissatisfied.

While personal approval ratings are not the ultimate metric for determining election results in Australia, the warning signs are there for Labor that more voters are getting frustrated at the Albanese Government’s handling of the cost-of-living crisis.

“To paraphrase, it’s the economy, stupid. It’s always the economy that sets the parameters for debate,” Mr Albanese said on Monday when asked if financial stress was driving the rise of support for the “extreme” left and right in politics.

Labor believes that once it manages to pass its controversial Budget through Parliament, anger towards the broken tax promises will gradually subside, but it’s also warning the Greens that any delays will only help strengthen Senator Hanson’s standing.