CAMERON MILNER: The Budget Anthony Albanese was desperate to avoid could decide the Federal election

In a week today, Jim Chalmers will deliver his fourth Budget and the starter’s gun will be fired on the Federal election to be held in May.

This is without doubt the Budget Albanese was desperate to avoid having delivered and if not for a cyclone we would be in the second week of the tortuous election campaign with daily performances of weak Albo and strong Dutton.

Speculation is that Labor is scrambling, but those who know Chalmers know he always had this eventuality covered.

The only bloke totally unprepared for this Budget is Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor.

Albanese might’ve had his election timing blown away by the cyclone, Taylor had to reschedule his appointments at the local blow dry bar.

So stung was he by last week’s commentary from his front bench colleagues and economists alike for his lack of economic policy development leading into the election he announced an “eight marginal seat blitz” as if this was somehow a unique effort for someone wanting to run Australia’s economy.

Little wonder Chalmers says he doesn’t know whether to laugh or cry when Angus steps to the dispatch box and gets out the wet lettuce leaf to start his questioning.

Yet, while Albo is running scared from a Budget that will confirm high inflation for longer and no change to interest rates, Jim Chalmers — the next Labor Prime Minister — is readying for one of the most important speeches for Labor’s electoral campaign.

Chalmer’s clear-eyed economic leadership steered Australia’s economy through without an official recession all while pushing his Prime Minister to give a Stage 3 tax cut for all, not just the few as Albanese had steadfastly promised to be “Morrison lite” until the Dunkley by-election forced his hand.

The only personality trait stronger than Albo’s craven desire for free stuff, upgrades and expensive coastal real estate is his desire to hold on to being PM for as long as possible.

Albanese has backed up the tip truck of cash and is shovelling the bucks out the door at a furious rate. $31.25 billion of new commitments since January 1 have been promised by Albanese to buy him a temporary bounce in the polls.

The political fix by Albanese’s choice for Reserve Bank Governor, Michelle Bullock, to cut interest rates by a measly 0.25 per cent has also given Labor a sugar hit in recent polls.

That said the polls have only tipped the betting from a minority Dutton government back in favour of a minority Albanese government, lead by the whip hands of surviving Greens and Teals in what will make Gillard and Swan’s Wattle Deal 1.0 look like a stable government.

In this context, Chalmers will be able to use next week’s Budget to provide additional momentum for Labor as they head into the election campaign proper.

He will set the context for the poorer Budget numbers backed by Trump’s increasingly erratic and frankly weird management of the US and therefore the world’s economy.

The ongoing security risks of an unresolved Ukraine war, ongoing conflict in the Middle East, an aggressive China and, according to the OECD, a weakening global economy.

Power bill rebates have been wildly popular and will continue as a centrepiece of Chalmer’s war on the cost of living for people living in the ‘burbs.

Chalmers spends time in his local electorate of Rankin and is in touch with his local constituents. Unlike the PM, whose electorate office remains closed because of Hamas sympathisers, Chalmers’ is open and serving his local community.

As much as Albanese is aloof and out of touch, Chalmers is on the ground and in touch. Albo may well be accused of having a tin ear, well Chalmers is all ears and is listening to Australians doing it tough, but with a plan to get people through while avoiding a national recession.

Sure, we have a per capita recession and it’s got to be acknowledged that Albanese misled voters when he promised cheaper electricity and lower cost of living.

Admittedly, voters are much worse off than they were three years ago. Chalmers job certainly isn’t made any easier by his boss’s trouble with handling the truth or his incessant weakness.

But the Budget is the opportunity to reframe the challenge of who is best placed to lead Australia back to the land of growth and prosperity.

Taylor can’t deliver economic leadership as easily as a new hairdo or another cameo for Just Men.

So, its left to Dutton to do it all.

The Budget isn’t without risks, as it will bring to book all of Labor’s promises to date and show where they will be paid from.

It will crystallise some ugly economic truths that inflation is likely to be higher for longer and we can’t rely on the resources sector in a slowing global economy.

It will likely predict the RBA can’t possibly justify another politically motivated cut to interest rates anytime soon.

The Budget should be the perfect place for Dutton to stake his claim to economic management and a better ability to attack the No.1 issue of concern for Australian voters — the cost of living and the 12 interest rate rises under Albanese.

But like a Wally Lewis standing up to the Blues in the mud of Lang Park or Allan Border batting through a withering West Indies pace attack with the new ball there’s another Queenslander who stands in the way of what was otherwise going to a certain Labor defeat.

Budget night is Chalmers’ night. As Taylor combs his hair, Jim will be doing his final run-through of his Budget speech. As Chalmers rises at 7.30pm next Tuesday, Labor MPs will be watching, hoping and believing they are actually in with a chance on polling day.