EDITORIAL: Decline in public trust in Federal Government another post-election pointer

As the year draws to a close there will be little respite for politicians of both sides of the political divide.

And a new voter survey by the Australian National University adds another piece to the electoral puzzle.

The poll shows public confidence in the Federal Government and direction of the country is at similar levels to the months before Scott Morrison was ousted from power in May 2022.

The study on perceptions of democracy and political attitudes, due out on Wednesday, shows a steady decline in faith in the nation’s leaders from just under 55 per cent confidence in 2022 to lower than 40 per cent today.

Public trust in the Government is currently on a par with the Morrison administration as it emerged from the torrid lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic and rock-bottom public approval during the catastrophic Black Summer Bushfires of January 2020.

Report author and head of the ANU’s School of Politics and International Relations, Professor Nicholas Biddle said the similarity in data compared to just prior to the previous election was one of the surprise findings of the nationally representative sample of more than 3500 Australians.

Such negative views were “particularly troubling” for a Government that had initially enjoyed positive public feedback — and at a time when inflation had been mostly under control without a substantial increase in unemployment, he said.

“It’s not to say that there’s any guarantee that there will be a change of government, or even that it’s more likely than not, but it’s hard to see what the government is going to be able to do to turn around the views and narrative,” he told The Nightly.

It is now clear that there is more than a little to turn around.

Anthony Albanese’s focus on the ultimately failed Voice referendum gave rise to claims he had taken his eye off the ball as Australians faced a crippling run of interest rate rises, inflation and growing cost of living pressures.

“Even if price rises have stopped, people still recognise that prices are higher than they were previously,” said Professor Biddle.

“People do see that, and it flows through to their views towards government. Any government which has presided over a longish period of time of inflation is going to find it very hard to recalibrate.”

The poll found the election, which must be held by May, was too close to call.

Taking all Australians combined, the Coalition had a substantial lead on the primary vote, with 38.2 per cent support if the election was held on the day of the survey, compared to a 31.8 per cent backing for Labor.

However, the report shows the Greens had a primary vote share of 11.9 per cent which, given the vast majority of preferences of Greens voters flows to Labor, suggests a slight preference for the two main left of centre parties over the two main right of centre parties.

That adds further weight to the view that a minority Labor government beholden to the extremist views of the Greens remains a likely outcome.

And that should be a matter of serious concern.