EDITORIAL: Business still in the dark as Trump’s tariff D-Day looms

Barring a last minute miracle, it appears certain that Australia will not be spared from Donald Trump’s tariff binge which is threatening to destabilise the world economy.

Initially, Australian trade officials were optimistic that they could convince the US President that a carve-out from his 25 per cent tariffs on all aluminium and steel imports would be in the mutual interest of both nations.

We had a large trade deficit on our side, as well as history. Mr Trump had been willing to agree to an exemption during his first administration — why wouldn’t he do so again?

But this Trump is a different beast — more volatile and inward-looking than ever before.

It doesn’t matter that it makes economic sense to grant Australia a carve-out. That’s not the point. The point is performing to his MAGA fans at home who are still cheering on his tough “America First” agenda, even as it threatens to send that nation into recession.

Just seven weeks after his inauguration, the initial hopes that Mr Trump’s second presidency would herald a golden age of prosperity are long forgotten.

The Australian share market shed billions on Tuesday as it followed Wall Street into a sea of red.

Mr Trump calls it a “period of transition”. Economists are calling it a sign the US economy is slowing and could be headed towards recession.

His on-again, off-again, on-again approach to tariffs has caused global economic whiplash and destroyed investor confidence.

Mr Trump’s mercurial nature undoubtedly makes him a challenging character to deal with.

But Australians were told prior to his election in November that all was under control.

We were told that Treasury was war gaming a number of different trade and tariff scenarios.

Yet with tariff D-day less than 48 hours away, Australian businesses are still in the dark as to what the impact on their operations will be.

What happened to that modelling Treasurer Jim Chalmers assured us was being worked on back in November? It has been nowhere to be seen.

We’re told that Ambassador Kevin Rudd has been hard at work trying to convince the Americans to grant us a reprieve, meeting frequently with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to put forward Australia’s case.

Those conversations appear to have come to nought.

Trade Minister Don Farrell has not personally gone to DC to meet with Mr Lutnick, leaving that to Mr Rudd and other senior trade officials. Whether it would have made a difference is unclear. But there can be no more important task for a Trade Minister.

Meanwhile, Malcolm Turnbull is dealing himself in unhelpfully, saying Australia shouldn’t “suck up” to Mr Trump — skating over the fact it was through servile flattery that the former PM was able to secure the 2017 exemption.

Even the most obsequious of bootlicking now looks doomed to fail. All that’s left for business to do is brace for impact, and hope for a miracle.