EDITORIAL: SA election a sign of whether One Nation has come in from the cold
The uncertainty around so much of modern life has created a ready-made audience for the messages delivered by One Nation.
The winner of the South Australian State election on Saturday is beyond doubt.
A slew of polls suggest Labor under Premier Peter Malinauskas will romp back in.
But what the psephologists and party officials will be poring over on Saturday night is how One Nation performed and whether it became the dominant party of the right by pushing the Liberals into third place.
Sign up to The Nightly's newsletters.
Get the first look at the digital newspaper, curated daily stories and breaking headlines delivered to your inbox.
By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.A Newspoll conducted March 12-18 had Labor’s primary vote at 40 per cent, One Nation at 22 per cent and the Liberal Party on 16 per cent.
Should the One Nation vote hold up it signals a significant moment in Australia’s political history.
The bigger picture will be what such a result means for the Federal by-election in Farrer on May 9, which looms as a major test for the Coalition under the new leadership team of Liberal leader Angus Taylor and Nationals leader Matt Canavan.
The warning lights have been flashing for the Coalition since a Newspoll in January — before Mr Taylor took over as leader from Sussan Ley — showed One Nation outpolling the Coalition for the first time in Australian political history with a primary of 22 per cent compared to 21 per cent.
Polls are of course far from infallible.
It is easy to tell a pollster you are not happy with a party when you don’t actually have to follow through at that moment.
But when a voter’s mind is really engaged as the pencil in their hand hovers over the ballot paper they may decide it is not worth the risk to jump to a newer option outside the traditional framework.
However polls can be a valuable snapshot of voter sentiment at any one time.
And the polls are saying lots of voters are angry.
They are angry about the cost of living and housing affordability, which many link to what they see as excessive immigration.
There is angst too about the fracturing of social cohesion.
They are fed up with the two-party system which they don’t believe is delivering for them and they want to give someone else a go.
This shift is mainly taking former Coalition voters to One Nation but Labor would be foolish to think there are no lessons in this for them.
The uncertainty around so much of modern life has created a ready-made audience for the messages delivered by One Nation.
And the price spikes flowing from the war with Iran will only add fuel to the grievance fire.
The very fact that One Nation is now part of the political discussion and being genuinely canvassed as a new force has signalled a change in the traditional political narrative.
There was another signpost on Friday with analysis of a DemosAU/Capital Brief survey of Federal voting intent conducted between January and March, which put One Nation’s primary vote at 27 per cent, just behind Labor on 29 per cent with the Coalition on 21 per cent.
The South Australian election could be the first serious indicator of whether One Nation has truly come in from the cold, or whether its surge has run its course.
