MIKE SMITHSON: Personality politics rule Peter Malinauskas’ showdown with newcomer Ashton Hurn

With South Australians going to the polls on Saturday, the last day of campaigning has come down to personality politics.

There are three leaders in the race, with One Nation now also tipping the opinion polls away from the Liberals.

Labor and Liberals leaders clashed in another public forum during breakfast radio on the penultimate day.

Both wanted to avoid the awkward 2004 Howard-Latham handshake where two past federal leaders were gripped in a “who’s toughest” radio stunt moment on the eve of the election.

Liberal leader Ashton Hurn has ramped up her approach in public face-to-face exchanges with Premier Peter Malinauskas as the campaign’s unfolded.

Since the moment he demanded that she not interrupt him during a televised debate, she’s gone on the attack, and then some.

Minutes after his verbal slap at her on stage, she calmly replied with a “don’t interrupt me either”.

Ms Hurn admits she is up against it with most opinion polls having One Nation’s primary vote ahead of the Liberals.

She’s predicted to win only a handful of the 47 lower house seats which will be a disaster for the Liberal Party.

But the 35-year-old mother, who’s only been in the top job for just over 100 days, is the epitome of mental toughness and resilience.

Ms Hurn is from a Barossa Valley farming family which knows the value of dogged effort and teamwork.

She’s taken great inspiration from her beloved brother Shannon who captained West Coast Eagles in the AFL for five seasons including their amazing 2018 premiership against Collingwood.

Mr Malinauskas has spent the entire campaign almost talking down Labor’s chances of a record-breaking victory.

He’s steered the Labor ship through four years of high-profile success stories including securing LIV Golf, AFL Gather Round, the Australian Moto GP and various superstar concerts.

But in getting those parties started, Labor has been under constant fire about rising ambulance ramping outside public hospitals, bed block, a failed hydrogen plant and trampling over the cultural sensitivities of rebuilding a parklands golf course.

The man widely known as Mali has been held to account over his broken election promises from 2022, which he conveniently by-passes or plays down during media conferences or public appearances.

But Labor has been united throughout its term and during 20 of the past 24 years it’s been in office in SA.

The Liberals, on the other hand, have been torn apart by systemic factionalism.

That’s why Ms Hurn is now leader after the quick succession departures of her predecessors Vincent Tarzia and David Speirs.

Mr Tarzia simply didn’t cut the mustard, and his fate was sealed after opinion polls indicated the Libs could lose all but three of their existing 13 seats.

The sharks were soon circling and, despite him holding firm for a short period, he conveniently fell on his sword for the good of the party.

He’s still running for re-election in his marginal seat of Hartley, which I tip he’ll win by just a whisker.

Mr Speirs created far worse image problems for the Liberals.

He quit the leadership in mid-2024 and was subsequently charged with supplying cocaine to others, one of whom was a reforming drug addict.

He was convicted on both charges but avoided a prison sentence.

He’s now returned to his former seat of Black running as an independent.

But both major parties are so disgusted by his crimes that they’re urging voters to preference him last on the ballot paper.

So, are the predictions as good or as bad as they seem?

They rarely are, so that would mean the Liberals final tally could still be a disaster but not quite a catastrophe.

After covering 11 state campaigns and almost as many federal election nights, I conclude movement will still be substantial and cast the Liberals into opposition in SA for the next decade, if not longer.

It’s likely that formerly safe Liberal seats such as Morialta, Unley, Colton and Finnis will all bite the dust.

The Greens may pick up their first lower house seat in the Adelaide hills.

With all major parties publicly denouncing a One Nation vote as a wasted vote, the current polling must be scaring them witless.

I consider them only an outside chance in regional areas currently under the Liberal banner.

One Nation will have an impact, but I still doubt it will be enough to win any seats other than in the Upper House, where former Liberal senator Cory Bernadi is at the top of their ticket.

But that alone has all eyes on SA to see where One Nation stands as a party outside its Queensland powerbase.

Senator Pauline Hanson has been mobbed at key locations which the party’s quick to convey as a sure sign of its growing popularity.

But it could be a virtual rent-a-crowd following her travels, with little SA-specific policy ever explained to the media.

So, my final prediction, which is subject to a hefty margin of error, is Labor increasing its majority to 32 seats, the Liberals with net loss to 11 seats, and independents claiming the remaining four.

Mike Smithson is 7NEWS SA state political editor