JUSTIN AMLER: Iranians are suffering, despite Donald Trump saying ‘help is on the way’ months ago

Just days after signing the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding and conducting negotiations with Vice President JD Vance in Switzerland, Iran is already making a mockery of both the talks and the signed agreement.

Vance claimed Iran has agreed to inspections of its nuclear sites, yet Iran denies it. President Trump claimed Iran will use its unfrozen funds to exclusively buy US food, but Iran denies that too.

No one should be surprised — least of all the US President.

It was he, after all, who observed in The Art of the Deal: “The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.”

Yet his own advice went unheeded, which is why many regard the signing of the MOU as little short of a capitulation by the world’s greatest superpower.

The Islamic Republic of Iran — severely battered militarily and rendered all but defenceless — seems to have nonetheless effectively stolen a victory from the jaws of defeat.

And the biggest losers are not just Israel, which will likely be pressured to halt its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, or America, whose reputation has undoubtedly suffered, but the people of Iran.

They have just seen support for their fight against this regime’s severe repression evaporate under the MOU’s commitment that both sides “refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs”.

That means that as Iran continues to execute thousands of people, adding to the tens of thousands of protesters murdered earlier this year, the United States will now have to turn a blind eye.

This will be a punch in the gut for the many Iranians fighting for freedom, especially after Trump told them back in January this year to keep the protests going, and that “Help is on the way”.

It is perplexing that the world’s strongest country would bend the knee to a regime that has repeatedly attacked its neighbours and American allies with missiles and drones.

The bottom line is that Iran has now demonstrated it can use its geographic proximity to the vital Strait of Hormuz as a tool for economic blackmail, threatening oil prices and global stability. And it will keep doing so.

Last weekend, Iran again announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to Israeli attacks in Lebanon that were responding to Hezbollah attacks that killed Israeli soldiers.

Almost immediately, the US denied the strait was closed. Whatever the reality, it’s clear the MOU has strengthened Iran’s confidence and given the regime a new major source of leverage. This will only serve as a recipe for further conflict and destabilisation.

Iran is now using the MOU to shield Hezbollah, its most important terror proxy, from continued Israeli military pressure. In doing so, it continues to undermine Lebanese sovereignty and threaten Israel’s northern border and inhabitants.

But this is not just a regional issue. It’s a global one. American allies in the Gulf have already come under direct Iranian missile and rocket attacks, damaging critical infrastructure. In March, Iran fired a missile at the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, about 4000km away, despite previously claiming its missiles were limited to 2000km. Its extended reach should be sounding alarm bells everywhere, including here in Australia.

Yet the MOU fails to address ballistic missiles at all.

Iran’s nuclear commitments are equally vague. The MOU merely “reaffirms” Iran is not to procure or develop weapons. Is the United States really willing to trust a regime that has chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” for decades — and has always claimed its nuclear program was “peaceful” despite Iranian documents that prove an intention to build at least five nuclear weapons?

At best, the MOU will act as a ceasefire, an extended pause in an ongoing civilisational conflict between radical Islamic terrorism and Western democratic values. But more likely, it will serve as a brief interlude, giving Iran, and by extension its terror proxies including Hezbollah and Hamas a reprieve — to re-arm and refresh for the next, even more challenging, conflict ahead.

As long as the Islamic Republic itself remains in power, that danger will always remain.

Tehran is now claiming it stood against the combined military power of both Israel and the United States — and survived.

President Trump himself observed in a tweet back in 2020: “Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!”

Trump was right then and the principle remains true today. Iran may not have won the war. But it appears to have successfully negotiated itself back from the brink — and, arguably, has gained both new sources of power and credibility as a result.

And this is terrible news — for the Iranian people, for Iran’s Gulf neighbours, for Israel, for Lebanon, but also for global stability, economic prosperity, and the framework of international law. Needless to say, Australia will not be immune from these negative consequences.

Justin Amler is a policy analyst at the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC).