Liberals, considering removing leader Sussan Ley, are split between Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie

Monday did not bring good news for Sussan Ley. Support for the Liberal leader as the alternate prime minister fell to 10 per cent. Then a national newspaper reported many of her own supporters are so fed up they have switched to the young conservative Andrew Hastie.

Mr Hastie, a politician known for his looks, military service and Trump-like populism, has enough support to replace Ms Ley as leader as soon as next week, the last time Parliament will convene for 2025, according to members of the party’s Left faction.

That view was reinforced by The Australian’s front-page headline, “Drowning Lib wets in surprise tilt to Hastie,” (wets is an old term for socially progressive Liberals) that prompted hope among fans the 43-year-old Perth-based backbencher would bring back God, trade tariffs and Aussie-made cars to the Liberal Party.

Hold on!, said others. Despite isolated chatter about backing Mr Hastie, the party’s Left faction has not withdrawn its support for Ms Ley, The Nightly was told. The left-turns-to-Hastie theory was being pushed by a few NSW Liberal MPs who oppose the other contender, Angus Taylor, who is also a conservative, according those in Mr Taylor’s camp.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the Coalition has suffered a “structural collapse”, according to pollster Kos Samaras. The Redbridge Group founder found greater support for Labor Party among every generation, from Generation Z to the Baby Boomers.

The 1011-person survey was conducted over the week that ended last Thursday, the day Ms Ley dropped the party’s net zero emissions policy. It estimated the One Nation vote has doubled in four months to 18 per cent, a sign of conservatives deserting Ms Ley’s broader-church Coalition.

Party wars

Because of the timing, the poll doesn’t reveal how voters feel about Ms Ley’s pivot to lowering power prices from saving the planet. But it demonstrates she is a long way from threatening Anthony Albanese, who on Monday morning observed “she’s clearly being undermined by her own side”.

In truth, the Liberals do not know if they should remove Ms Ley now or allow her to lead the fight up to the Budget in May, which will form the basis of the government’s second-term agenda. Staunch the losses or give voters a chance to warm to her?

On Monday morning, Liberal senators Anne Ruston and Maria Kovacic — both from the left — issued a rare statement on the leadership asserting the faction had not abandoned the party’s first female leader.

“Media reports this morning about the moderates are incorrect,” they said. “We, along with an overwhelming majority of our moderate colleagues, continue to strongly support Sussan’s leadership.”

A fellow member of their faction had a different view. He claimed Mr Hastie could take the leadership next week if the former SAS officer was willing to bring down the party’s first woman leader.

Ms Ley did not help herself on Monday when she told the Sunrise TV show energy would be more affordable under the Coalition, but “I’m not going to look people in the eye like Anthony Albanese did in two elections and say energy will be cheaper”.

Interviewer Natalie Barr interjected: “You just did”.

Then, during an interview with Ben Fordham on 2GB, she was forced to sit through some brutal talk-back feedback. “She’s just emblematic about what’s wrong with the Liberals,” said Steve, who complained she took too long to decide on policies. “It’s not hard, just have some conviction.”

‘Stay tuned!’

Although not hiding them, Mr Hastie rarely discusses his leadership ambitions. On a weekly email to supporters on Friday, he celebrated the net zero decision, mocked climate campaigners and promised to fight for lower immigration (which Ms Ley attacked on television on Monday).

“Let the Net Zero zealots cry foul,” Ms Hastie wrote. “My only regret is that we can’t collect their tears for desalination.

“Stay tuned!”

The climate-policy change is a sign of how much the Liberal Party has changed in six months. In May, Ms Ley won a leadership ballot fairly easily with the support of the Left (including a voter wasn’t even an MP). Today, the only succession candidates being seriously discussed are both conservatives: Mr Hastie and the 16-years-older Mr Taylor.

On these two men, the party is split four ways. Both main factions are divided between Mr Hastie and Mr Taylor. Not even their confidants seem to know how much support each has.

Mr Taylor’s enemies on the left are concentrated in NSW, where his faction is trying to change voting rules to give it more MPs at the left’s expense. If Mr Taylor became Federal leader, he would be able to play a central role in the division’s future, potentially harming the interests of Michael Photios, a lobbyist widely believed by the right to wield great power over the State party.

A management consultant, Mr Taylor is more naturally drawn to conventional economic policies, making him more palatable to leading members of the left. Mr Hastie’s protectionist beliefs, inspired by the electoral success of President Donald Trump, are turning him into a cult-like figure among conservatives.

Liberal MPs, losing voters to the left and the right, face a difficult choice: between experience and youth, convention and populism, predictability and uncertainty. Their choice will determine the party’s future.