MARK RILEY: Will Anthony Albanese’s cabinet reshuffle be enough to help him regain momentum?

It’s no coincidence that Anthony Albanese chose to take his four-day winter break in Queensland this week.

For one, it’s a heck of a lot warmer up there than it is in frosty Canberra at the moment.

But it also makes political sense.

Almost everything a politician does is political, including when and where they take holidays.

Queensland will be one of two key battlegrounds for Albanese at the next election.

The other, of course, is WA.

And it’s no shock that he chose to take his first prime ministerial mini-break on the glorious beaches of Broome.

Holidaying at home can have its advantages for a PM, particularly when it involves kicking back in key electorates.

This week’s break, though, was even more “mini” than expected.

Joe Biden’s decision to pull out of the US presidential race meant the PM spent most of Monday fronting a media conference in Cairns and relaying his personal thanks to the outgoing president in radio interviews.

He and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton both praised Biden for being a good friend of Australia.

And he has been — especially when Scott Morrison came to him with his plan for AUKUS. Without Biden’s support, the nuclear-powered subs agreement would never have risen above the surface.

Now, Kamala Harris’s emergence as the likely Democrat candidate for the presidency has changed the US electoral landscape profoundly.

Suddenly, this contest is no longer a walkover for Donald Trump.

Harris will come at him from a very different angle to Biden. For a start, she’ll remember people’s names and speak in complete and largely understandable sentences.

That is almost sufficient justification for changing candidates in itself.

But she’ll also mount a strong gender challenge to what just days ago appeared to be the inevitability of a Trump return to the Oval Office.

Harris will try to rally strong support among female voters in the key swing states by blaming Trump for the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade and weaken American women’s right to choose abortion.

If there is one issue in the US that will get women out to vote it is that.

And then there’s the whole former-prosecutor-versus-the-convicted-felon motif that the Democrats are pushing.

The defining question is no longer about age and competency but character and propriety.

None of this is to say that Harris will win the election.

But it does say that this is now a real contest.

For Albanese, it’s also a reminder that in politics nothing is for certain.

Assumptions and perceptions can turn 180 degrees in the blink of an eye.

And the perception of Albanese’s show at the moment is that it’s losing momentum.

The fresh vision of hope he offered at the last election has become blurred and indistinct after the confidence-killing experience of the Voice referendum loss.

He’s attempted several resets with his stage three tax transformation, the Budget’s inflation-busting theme and the universal electricity bill relief. But he isn’t getting the expected payoff. There is no political bang for his buck.

As hard as Albanese works and as much as he tries to keep the agenda rolling, his Government appears to be stuck in the mud.

Peter Dutton can take much of the credit for that.

Albanese insists he has never underestimated his opponent, but Dutton has proved to be a much more effective Opposition Leader than many had initially assumed.

He has, though, handed Albanese a massive target with his risky nuclear energy policy.

It is both light on detail and credibility.

Yet, Labor still hasn’t been able to take full political advantage of those weaknesses. At least, not yet.

Sunday’s ministerial reshuffle provides Albanese with another chance for a reset.

Andrew Giles must be shifted after the detainee bungle-a-thon and the retirements of Linda Burney and Brendan O’Connor offer the opportunity to elevate other talent.

But shifting Clare O’Neil from Home Affairs would be a mistake. She’s been one of the better performers in a tough portfolio.

And why allow Dutton to claim her political scalp so cheaply, which he inevitably would? It doesn’t make sense.

The reshuffle is an important opportunity for Albanese to inject new vigour into his frontbench team and get them prepared for an election, which he confirmed yet again yesterday will be next year.

Enough time for Albanese to take a short break over Christmas in another key State. Maybe around the top of Tassie next time? It’s a lovely place. And it’s home to three marginal seats.