SIMON BIRMINGHAM: Village People’s pragmatism shows us how to deal with Donald Trump

In just a few days Donald Trump will be president, again. In many ways it feels like he already is, which is understandable given his force of personality, profile and unique status as the first defeated president since 1893 to be subsequently re-elected.

The appropriate desire to look to the future, especially given the uncertainties a second Trump administration brings, will leave little scope for a retrospective on Joe Biden’s presidency. Yet from an Australian perspective there is much in President Biden’s work that we should value and seek to build upon with president Trump.

If there is one area of bipartisanship in Washington, it relates to China. Concerns about President Xi’s ambitions and strategies intensified during the first Trump administration and developed into policy responses under both presidents Trump and Biden.

Australia needs and should pursue the best of these policy approaches to keep our region secure and stable, open and prosperous.

Commitment to the Quad, by both presidents, is a fine example of worthy continuity. Malcolm Turnbull worked with Donald Trump to revive this US, Australia, India and Japan grouping, while Scott Morrison secured Joe Biden’s support to elevate its dialogue to leader level.

Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe developed a close working relationship with President Trump the first time around. India’s Narendra Modi’s has already revived his effective relations with the returning US president.

Anthony Albanese, who has never met Donald Trump, would be well advised to show similar drive in the pursuit of Australian influence with our closest ally. It is mystifying why he hasn’t shown the same degree of initiative as many other world leaders, including UK Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer who met with Trump before the latter had even won re-election.

Effective defences to help deter action that could lead to conflict are crucial to the stability of our region. On this front, President Biden is right to highlight AUKUS as a signature achievement of his administration.

The AUKUS deal negotiated by the Morrison government, which secured Australian access to the best of US defence technologies starting with nuclear powered submarines, is a win for all three participant countries.

While the gains for Australia in securing the best defence capabilities and turbocharging defence industrial capabilities are evident, the US also gets one of its best ever defence deals via Australian investment in US shipyards and faster growth of an entirely interoperable fleet in the Indo Pacific.

Though even more is needed, Australia’s lifting of defence investment, paying our way and effective partnering with the US are a model that reflects much of what president Trump calls for from US allies.

Pleasingly, President Biden has followed the step up Australia pursued under the previous Coalition government of diplomatic presence across Pacific Island nations. President Trump should resist any “efficiency” proposals to reduce this presence, which represents a low cost means of securing crucial relationships.

However, despite the best efforts of key administration officials like Kurt Campbell, personal visits by top US officials to Pacific Island and South East Asian nations has continued to fall short.

With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East it is understandable that Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other key leaders have been drawn elsewhere. But to protect the interests of our region, it is crucial that we see president Trump, vice president Vance, secretary of state Rubio and other big leaders in the new administration giving their time to relations across our region.

These broader regional relations, where Australia ideally needs the US to complement our own, is where one of the greatest risks of a Trump administration lie.

I fundamentally disagree with president Trump’s view that tariff is a beautiful word, or that tariffs are in and of themselves good policy. However, US domestic policy settings are not matters for Australian politicians, save where they impact on our interests.

Australia should use the Coalition-negotiated network of free trade agreements to preserve our position as an open trading economy and maintain our preferential access into the markets of our region.

We should argue the strength of US trade with Australia and complementarity of our strategic interests to again secure exemptions for Australian exporters from Trump tariffs.

And very importantly, we should seek to dissuade the returned president and new administration from antagonising South East Asian relations through the use of tariffs and trade sanctions.

These countries will continue to benefit from investment diversifying away from China, but ideally they see much of that investment come from the US and the US as a valued market and partner, not a constraint on their economic potential.

A key challenge will be the battle for technological advantage, where again there is a degree of consistency in the objectives and potentially policy of both the Biden and Trump administrations.

Trade restrictions on sensitive technologies, such as the chips required for advanced artificial intelligence capabilities, are intended to maintain US strategic advantage. However, they require deft handling so as not to drive important regional partners like Singapore, Vietnam or Indonesia into making counterproductive decisions.

For Australia and all nations there is a need to resist acquiescence or catastrophising of the changes to come from the returned president Trump. We must stay true to our values, be firm in our advocacy but also pragmatic in our negotiations.

Within the US and potentially for the world a positive example is being set by the most unlikely of sources: the Village People. They opposed president Trump’s election, but have agreed to perform at his inauguration, hoping to “bring the country together after a tumultuous and divided campaign.”

Not everyone will make real their dreams at Trump’s YMCA, but that is where the world is staying for the next four years and it is time to approach it with determination to make the most of it.