Simon Birmingham’s warning on the dangers of catastrophising Donald Trump’s return to the White House

Australians should not catastrophise Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the opposition’s foreign spokesman Simon Birmingham has told a leading foreign policy conference underway in Canberra.

But Senator Birmingham warned that any resolution of the war in Ukraine must not be seen to deliver any sort of victory to Russian President Vladimir Putin, because that would not deter future aggression.

And he praised the work of Kevin Rudd, who spent the morning after Trump’s re-election deleting critical tweets and comments about the former President that were made before Anthony Albanese posted the former Labor PM to serve as Australia’s Ambassador to the United States.

Speaking to the Australian Institute of International Affairs’ Annual Conference in Canberra, Senator Birmingham said the Coalition had worked well with the first Trump Administration and influenced it and this could happen again.

“The US does have an incoming president who is less predictable, who is proudly a disrupter, who is prone to making and pursuing less conventional policies and making bolder pronouncements,” Senator Birmingham said.

“But we should not instantly catastrophise that.

“Indeed, I was part of a government where we worked with the first Trump administration to shape and influence it.

“We have and other countries have done so before, done so effectively and good can come.”

The positive message is in contrast to the warning from Treasurer Jim Chalmers who will tell the conference’s gala dinner on Monday night that Trump’s plan to impose ten per cent tariffs on all imports and 60 per cent duties on Chinese goods would send up prices and reduce Australia’s economic growth.

“In short, Treasury’s analysis demonstrated that we should expect a small reduction in our output and additional price pressures, particularly in the short term,” Dr Chalmers will say.

“But specific features of our economy — like a flexible exchange rate and independent central bank, would help mitigate against some of this.

“Globally – the impact was much more substantial.”

Unconventional is not bad

Senator Birmingham said the Abraham Accords that normalised Israel’s ties with some of its neighbours in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, were a good example of how the Trump Administration’s unconventional approach could achieve previously impossible breakthroughs.

“Ambassador Rudd was right to, way back at the Republican National Convention, when he got asked about engagement with his European counterparts in Washington, and he said that he’d been telling some of them to chill out about the prospect of President Trump,” Senator Birmingham said.

He also praised Mr Rudd for drawing together Republicans and Democrats in support of AUKUS which he predicted would be safe under President Trump because of that work.

Mr Trump and Mr Albanese spoke about AUKUS in their first conversation since the former President’s landslide win last week.

Veterans Affairs Minister Matt Keogh said on Monday that Trump Republicans were on board with AUKUS.

“We expect that to continue even under a Trump presidency because we’ve seen that support from Trump supporters, from Trump Republicans already across the Congress, for the AUKUS arrangements,” he said.

“The AUKUS arrangements are fundamentally about making sure we maintain a stable region here where we are in Australia.

“That’s in Australia’s national interests, but it’s also in the national interests of the United Kingdom and the United States - that doesn’t change. And so we expect to see the AUKUS arrangements continue.”

Ukraine a ‘test’

But Senator Birmingham sounded a warning to MAGA Republicans, many of whom have expressed outright support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, that the way in which Mr Trump would seek to resolve the Ukraine war would be an early test of the President-elect’s unconventional style.

Mr Trump has repeatedly boasted that under his leadership, no wars were started and has subsequently vowed to end the Ukraine war, in which the United States under Joe Biden has backed Kyiv with billions in military aid.

Mr Trump has already spoken to the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine and is reported to have told President Putin not to escalate the conflict, which began in February 2022 when the Russian leader launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Despite some gains and a stunning incursion across the Russian border into Kursk, Ukraine has struggled to fend off the Russian advance and is widely perceived to be slowly losing the war.

Senator Birmingham said Ukraine would be “an early test and debate” for the rebooted Trump Administration.

“While strong support has prevented Ukraine from failing during its war as so many initially predicted, excessive caution has potentially also prevented it from prevailing,” he said.

“None of us would ever wish to see a broadening of this war, but nor is it acceptable to just let it drag out to the very last Ukrainian.

“To help deter Russia and other global disrupters from future acts of aggression, the future of Ukraine must be strong and be seen to be strong.

“Vladimir Putin cannot be provided with the scale of victory he desires, and to be able to deter future aggression, Ukraine must be set in the strongest possible position of that just and enduring peace.”

Penelope Wensley, who served as Australia’s Ambassador to the UN, France and India said “We shouldn’t expect the worst” and that Mr Trump’s appointments to key roles were critical.

She said Mr Trump also provided Australia with an opportunity to reclaim a leadership role and intensify its partnerships with other like-minded countries.

“The Australian government needs to pay much more attention to developing capability and capacity to develop a bulwark against this fragmentation of the multilateral system,” she said.

Bryce Wakefield, CEO of the Australian Institute for International Affairs, told The Nightly that Senator Birmingham’s intervention was wise and welcome.

“Senator Birmingham is right to call for calm heads and a clear-eyed assessment when it comes to the Trump Administration,” he said.

“Australia is one of the best-poised countries to deal with the United States in this period of change.”