AUKUS submarine deal: Richard Marles defends US Virginia-class changes amid delivery and security concerns

The defence minister has again declared confidence in Australia’s push to acquire nuclear-powered submarines following an overhaul of the AUKUS “optimal pathway”, and as new warnings emerge of further disruptions to the ambitious military project.

Over the weekend Richard Marles confirmed Australia would now receive three used Virginia-class submarines from the United States instead of a new boat and two second-hand ones, arguing it would improve simplicity and be significantly cheaper.

Critics have described the new approach as a “slap in the face”, while figures linked to the Pentagon have told The Nightly they believe US Under Secretary of War and AUKUS critic Elbridge Colby is continuing to undermine the security partnership.

Under the AUKUS optimal pathway unveiled in 2022, Australia is scheduled to receive at least three Virginia-class boats in the 2030s before eventually transitioning to a new fleet of submarines known as SSN-AUKUS in the 2040s along with the UK.

On the sidelines of the Shangri-La summit in Singapore, Mr Marles insisted that “chasing simplicity” was the main reason Australia was now deviating from its original plan to purchase two used Virginia-class submarines, and one newly built boat.

“What we will have here is a much simpler pathway. It will mean that the Virginia-class submarines that we are acquiring will all be of the same type of,” the Minister told reporters on Sunday.

“And I cannot overstate the significance of that, both in terms of the submariners who are operating them, but also the people who are working on them to sustain those submarines.”

Sources familiar with AUKUS deliberations in Washington have disputed this characterisation, claiming the change of direction for the pathway has been mostly driven by the Pentagon, rather than the Australian Government.

“This is Elbridge Colby doing what he’s always done — trying to throw sand in the gears of the whole AUKUS endeavour. He’s going to keep trying to take shots at it until he thinks he can sink it.”

Another figure connected to AUKUS planning work tells The Nightly that Elbridge Colby continues to cause problems with the project, but insists his influence is “far less” than it was previously.

“A lot of the AUKUS delivery stuff has been moved to other areas of the Pentagon, sidelining his ability to mess with it,” the industry representative says, speaking on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss conversations being held in Washington.

Last year Under Secretary Colby launched a snap-review of the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom to ensure it aligned with the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda.

The review’s findings have not been released, but in October last year President Donald Trump declared it was “full steam ahead” for AUKUS during a White House meeting with Anthony Albanese.

Already Australia has transferred $US3 billion ($4.2b) to Washington to help double its submarine production rates ahead of the scheduled transfer of Virginia-class boats to this country in the 2030s.

Military analysts predict that if Australia ends up with three Virginia-class submarines from the US and the first SSN-AUKUS boat is delivered on time in 2042/3, the Navy won’t reach a full fleet number of eight until at least 2063/4.

Greens senator and leading AUKUS critic David Shoebridge says the recent change in direction for AUKUS unveiled in Singapore is a “slap in the face” for Australia and shows that the government’s plans to acquire Virginia-class submarines is already slipping.

“Mr Marles went to Singapore to meet with his AUKUS partners, and he came back with a handful of second-hand subs on a promise from the United States. You cannot make this stuff up on AUKUS.”

The Greens have also seized on comments made by the US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth during the Shangri-La summit, where he praised Australia for “stepping up” on efforts “required for a high-end fight”.

“We appreciate Australia’s investment in real combat power and the commitment to integrate more deeply with the US joint force,” Secretary Hegseth said during remarks delivered to the international security gathering on Saturday.

Senator Shoebridge says the statement clearly sets out that the real goal of AUKUS for the United States is to “enmesh” Australia into a future high-end military conflict with China.

Before flying out of Singapore for a visit to India, the Defence Minister again brushed aside concerns that the United States would not be able to lift its submarine production rate from just over one new boat a year, to 2.3 early next decade, so that it can then sell them to Australia.

“We’re very confident about how AUKUS is progressing and we’re very confident about how the conditions are progressing that need to be met for the transfer of the Virginias in the early 2030s.”

“If you look at what’s happening with the production schedule of the American companies Huntington’s and Electric boat, we actually do think that’s heading in the right direction, but we’re not sanguine about it,” he told SBS.

Last week The Nightly revealed concerns expressed by a former US Navy Secretary over Australia’s lack of urgency in preparations for the massive AUKUS project and warnings about the slow progress on overhauling Western Australia’s Henderson shipyard.

Richard Spencer, who now serves as Chairman of Perth-based shipbuilder Austal, argued the government must appoint a powerful official to coordinate the complex nuclear-submarine endeavour, like celebrated US World War Two Admiral Rickover.

“We need this concept of a (Admiral) Rickover to be in Australia, someone who is just laser focussed on this program,” Mr Spencer told the Indian Ocean Defence and Security Conference (IODS) in Perth.