Ageing Collins-class submarines enter uncharted waters as overhaul raises capability fears before AUKUS
Australia is spending $11 billion to keep the old submarines afloat, but defence insiders fear they may not be able to perform key missions before AUKUS boats arrive.
A dramatic reduction in planned upgrades for the Navy’s Collins-class submarines is sparking deep concerns inside military circles over what future missions the ageing boats could perform before a replacement nuclear-powered fleet arrives in the 2030s.
Years of delayed decisions, cancellations and inaction by successive governments has caught up with the Australian Defence Force, which will now have to spend $11 billion trying to keep its six submarines in the water until Virginia-class boats eventually arrive.
On Tuesday Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed a new “conditions-based sustainment” approach would be applied to the original “life-of-type-extension” (LOTE) program for Collins, which aims to extend the fleet’s operational service by a decade.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.Until then prime minister Scott Morrison unveiled AUKUS in 2021, an ambitious LOTE program had been planned for the Collins-class fleet, to ensure they remained potent until they were replaced by new French-designed Attack-class submarines next decade.
The original Collin-class LOTE was to include equipment that would also go into the new Attack-class fleet, a prototyping exercise that involved new diesel generators, main motor, optronics masts, and possibly a new battery.
Once AUKUS was announced, and the French Attack-class program sensationally dumped, the ambitious LOTE program to modernise the Collins-fleet and improve its performance began to be scaled back to something resembling a simple refit.
Since coming to office in 2022 the Albanese government has consistently argued against the need to have a “Plan B” in case the United States fails to transfer nuclear submarines to Australia in the 2030s under AUKUS.
Former submariners who served on the Collins-class fleet argue there is still time for Australia to purchase an interim fleet of diesel-electric subs from overseas, arguing it would be cheaper than the now descoped but increasingly expensive LOTE program.
“This is one more step on the spiral towards having no submarine capability, having spent a fortune to get there,” laments one decorated former Royal Australian Navy submariner.
“We could buy new conventional submarines for less than the LOTE is going to cost us.”
Military experts point to the Orka-class submarine program between France’s Naval Group and the Dutch Navy as one possible option for Australia or even purchasing conventionally powered boats from South Korea or Japan.
The Albanese Government has now all but confirmed the classified Valdez review it commissioned in 2023 recommended that Australia not complete upgrades on all six of its ageing Collins-class boats before they’re retired in the 2040s.
Experts such as former defence official Richard Gray, now with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, say when the first LOTE begins shortly on one of the oldest Collins-class submarines, it will become clear how difficult the task will be.
“There are always risks with these older submarines, including corrosion that’s hidden which you can’t fully assess until you cut them up. The risks do go up when you extend their life, and in future they might be restrained in the types of missions they can do”.
In military circles the rumour mill is in overdrive that a new National Audit Office report will soon reveal that the LOTE program is already at significant risk, which may explain why the government quickly rushed out its announcement on Tuesday.
