AUKUS submarine deal support among Australians ‘fluid’ as senior Labor attacks take toll

Support for Australia’s biggest-ever defence program — the plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and the UK — is fluid, according to a new survey.

Polling conducted by the apolitical RedBridge firm exclusively for The Nightly in the lead-up to the third anniversary of AUKUS showed voters were overall neutral on whether or not they believe that acquiring the submarines will increase the risk of war with China.

But when asked if nuclear submarines are a good investment in Australia’s naval security, less than half of voters, 46 per cent, agreed or strongly agreed.

By contrast, 25 per cent said they strongly disagreed or disagreed with the statement and a further 29 per cent said they were unsure.

Only 38 per cent said Australia needed submarines and 27 per cent were unsure, while 35 per cent said Australia did not need nuclear submarines.

Tony Barry, director at RedBridge said the data showed that public support for AUKUS was in danger.

“Public sentiment around AUKUS is currently very fluid and vulnerable to messages that leverage off the cost of the project,” he said.

“There has been a failure by the Government and other advocates to litigate the case for AUKUS and this message inertia has exposed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to a micro-campaign on this issue.

“It will also concern the Albanese Government that there are some significant gender splits when it comes to assessments on AUKUS and support for the program is typically softer amongst voters earning less than $1000 a week.”

AUKUS has taken a battering from senior Labor party figures including former prime minister Paul Keating and former foreign ministers Gareth Evans and Bob Carr.

Mr Evans renewed his attacks on AUKUS this week saying the program was too expensive and would lead to Australia ceding its sovereignty to the United States.

Mr Keating, who was recently chastised by the former US Speaker and Democratic doyenne Nancy Pelosi for saying Taiwan was Chinese real estate, has said AUKUS turns Australians into suckers, because it will also include increased US and UK deployments out of Australian military bases, including HMAS Stirling near Perth.

At its core, AUKUS aims to deliver the Australian navy three Virginia-class submarines and then co-design and build a brand new hunter submarine with the British that will be called SSN AUKUS and built in Adelaide and Barrow, England.

Peter Dean who wrote the recent Defence Strategic Review said the Government had allowed AUKUS’ critics to fill the vacuum.

“The government needs to urgently remake the case for AUKUS,” he said.

“It was inevitable that support would soften over time.

“That’s why the Government needs to be constantly explaining the strategic rationale and how this will make Australia and the region safer.

“Instead, the vacuum has been filled by AUKUS’ opponents.”

The troubling data came as the three AUKUS leaders, Mr Albanese, US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced that Canada, New Zealand and Korea would be invited to explore jointly developing new weapons systems.

These could include developing quantum and artificial intelligence technologies for military applications as well as hypersonic missiles.

“Recognising these countries’ close bilateral defence partnerships with each member of AUKUS, we are consulting with Canada, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea to identify possibilities for collaboration on advanced capabilities under AUKUS Pillar II,” the three AUKUS leaders, Mr Albanese, Sir Keir and Mr Biden said in a statement.

Japan has already been invited to consider jointly developing their naval autonomous systems.

Earlier this year, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said in an exclusive interview that AUKUS desire to co-build new weapons with allied countries was still “undefined”.