Donald Trump will see Australia as a key ally to counter the rise of China, say former defence officials

Incoming President Donald Trump will immediately want to hear how Australia and other key allies can help the United States, particularly to counter rising competition from China, according to a former senior Pentagon official.

“What the President seems to always want to hear is what are you, Country X or country Y, doing for yourself,” Randall Schriver, who served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs under the first Trump Administration, told the Nightly.

“I think Australia has got a good story to tell there in terms of investment into defence and bolder regional strategy.

“Then the other piece is, rather than just come and ask us for some kind of help or assistance or policy adjustment, what can you do to help us?”

Australia, again, had a strong hand to play with its wealth of natural resources and critical minerals to bypass the “jam of over-dependency on China,” Mr Schriver said.

“Australia and a handful of other countries can be extraordinarily good partners for us in that,” he said. “The mindset of partnership and approaching the ‘over-reliance on China problem’ as a collective would be welcomed.”

Mr Schriver’s insights into the mind of President Trump come amid trepidation about the impact of his future foreign and international trade policies on Australia and the wider Indo-Pacific region.

Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, and Australian ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, are both due to attend Mr Trump’s second inauguration next week.

On Friday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed to the ABC that Mr Rudd had made direct contact with Mr Trump and stressed he was “confident” the ambassador could successfully work with the new administration.

Mr Rudd has faced criticism over his previous negative tweets about the president-elect.

Mr Schriver said the US and Australia enjoyed a “deep and enduring alliance” that spanned multiple administrations – a view shared by his former colleague, Heino Klinck, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for East Asia from August 2019 to January 2021.

“If there’s any ally that we have that’s in a good position, it’s Australia. We’ve got an absolute confluence of interests as well as values, and I don’t think that’s changed, regardless of what party is in power in the United States or in Australia,” Mr Klinck said.

Both former officials predicted a seamless transition in Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy, particularly in the face of China’s expanding economic and military footprint, and Mr Trump’s pick of China hawks Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz as foreign policy and national security chiefs.

“All signs point to continuity,” said Mr Schriver. The more acute challenges posed by an emerging China, Russia and North Korea exacerbated the urgency to work with allies to bolster deterrence and “uphold the free and open order”, he added.

AUKUS, the $368 billion trilateral security pact to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine capability for Australia with the help of the US and the UK, will remain at the heart of this joint deterrence effort.

In the run-up to the Trump White House, speculation about his unpredictable nature has fuelled fears of possible disruptions to the deal Canberra has been carefully navigating.

Marco Rubio, Mr Trump’s choice for Secretary of State, assured allies in his confirmation hearing on Wednesday the AUKUS pact was safe and a “blueprint” for other partnerships.

However, despite shared strategic objectives, a new budgetary analysis for the US Congress this week signalled the risk of logistical delays in submarine production in American shipyards that could derail the timeline for transferring Virginia-class boats for Australia.

Under the plan, British and US nuclear submarines will rotate through Perth from 2027 before the sale of at least three US Navy Virginia-class attack submarines to Australia in the early 2030s. In the latter stage, Australia will construct a new SSN-AUKUS fleet in Adelaide.

The limitations of shipyard and labour capacity were not insignificant, but “it’s a definable problem and one that can be addressed,” said Mr Schriver.

The likelihood of integrated US-Australian military operations in the Indo-Pacific also meant Australia having its own nuclear submarines added to, rather than diminished the US fleet, he argued.

But he said there was a “degree of frustration” in Washington over the slow progress of the program’s “Pillar 2” which aims to create a new defence ecosystem between the three countries, with more industry cooperation.

“Nothing much has come to fruition, and you hear a little bit of frustration that we don’t need a talking shop. We need direction, we need industry and government consultation, and we need direction from the governments if there’s something they want us to do together,” he said.

Heino Klinck warned that the second Trump administration was likely to add more pressure to Indo-Pacific allies and partners like Australia and Taiwan to beef up their defence capabilities to face the current threat environment.

The region has multiple flashpoints that could escalate into conflict over Beijing’s sovereignty claims over the South China Sea and Taiwan, as well as rising risks from nuclear-armed North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction program.

“What we’re going to find is that there is going to be pressure across the board for Australia to spend more on defence,” he said.

“The old 2 per cent is going to become 3 per cent, at least in terms of what America is going to expect its partners and allies to do. That’s not just an Australia thing, it’s going to be worldwide,” he said of GDP targets for defence spending.

But Canberra could count on US support in its own backyard as it seeks to establish a stronger patchwork of alliances across Pacific Island nations, he said.

Under the first Trump administration, the US upped its focus on the Pacific and its national security strategy was “very clear” about the threats posed by China, he argued.

“During the Trump administration, the very first time ever in American history, there was a director on the NSC for the Pacific Island Countries and greater emphasis at DoD (Department of Defence), State, and the Department of the Interior on this part of the world,” said Mr Klinck.

“I have no reason to think that a second Trump term is not going to be reflective of the first Trump term when it comes to pushing back on China, and a big piece of that is going to be working in concert with like-minded partners like Australia and particularly in the Pacific Island countries.”