Malcolm Turnbull’s AUKUS attack part of tide turning on submarine deal

The Government and Peter Dutton have both distanced themselves from former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull after he denounced AUKUS as a “really bad deal”, amid a renewed push by Labor members for Australia to abandon the security pact.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has heightened anxieties about the delivery of the trilateral deal, which will cost up to $368 billion by the 2040s and includes Washington selling three to five Virginia-class submarines to Canberra next decade.

Mr Turnbull – whose submarine deal with the French was torpedoed in 2021 when Scott Morrison signed the AUKUS deal with the United States and United Kingdom – argued Australia has “no guarantee” it will get any American nuclear-powered submarines next decade, because the US industry is failing to keep up with its own domestic demand.

The rate of production is about 1.3 and will need to be 2.33 by the early 2030s for the President of the day to sign off on the sale.

“The most likely outcome of the AUKUS pillar one is that we will end up with no submarines of our own,” Mr Turnbull told reporters on Monday.

“There will be Australian sailors serving on US submarines, and we’ll provide them with a base in Western Australia.

“We will have lost both sovereignty and security and a lot of money as well. That’s why I say it is a really bad deal.”

The Trump administration is supportive of AUKUS and has pledged to bolster the country’s shipbuilding industry to ramp up production, but officials have cautioned that future sales will only go ahead if it does not leave the US Navy vulnerable.

Mr Turnbull said “of course” Mr Trump likes AUKUS, because “it’s such a bad deal for us, he might be thinking, ‘who are these dumb guys that agreed to this deal?’”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said while he respected the former PM’s opinion, the Government is committed to AUKUS and believes it is getting a good deal.

“We see it is in our strategic interests, with big industrial benefits as well. It’s a long-term agreement which will survive changes of Government on both sides, all sides of the equations. It is in our interest that we support it,” he said.

The Opposition Leader also distanced himself from his former leader, saying the need for AUKUS was “greater than ever”.

“I think anyone who objectively looks at the deal … sees a capability that will underpin our security for the next century,” Mr Dutton said.

“It is a technology that will continue to evolve. It’s best-in-class, and working with the Americans and Brits, our two most valued allies, is more important than ever … We want to see AUKUS succeed, and we are absolutely dedicated to making that the case.”

Concern about the new administration is also being felt among Labor’s rank-and-file members, who have launched a fresh letter-writing campaign ahead of the looming Federal Election to call on MPs and candidates to pressure leadership to jump ship.

The grassroots Labor Against War group says the “tremendous upheaval in US-Australia relations in recent days and weeks” should be cause for concern.

Joint national patron of Labor Against War Doug Cameron said branches and members had been concerned about AUKUS from the get-go, but Donald Trump’s return to the White House had “heightened, and solidified, concerns”.

“What we have is an unhinged United States President who cannot be trusted to look after his own constituents, never mind helping Australia in any positive way,” he told The Nightly.

“There are no details about how this is going to work, other than some secretive decisions, and the public are really unaware of what this all means.

He called for MPs to dig deep and find the courage to come out against AUKUS, decrying that “caucus solidarity is being put before what I consider the national interest”.

Labor Against War national convenor Marcus Strom said there were voices in the Labor caucus who hold concerns about AUKUS, and he hoped the pressure from rank-and-filers will give those MPs confidence.

He said close to 150 Labor branches had now passed motions related to AUKUS.

“We’re hoping that when MPs are returned to caucus (after the election), hopefully still in Government, that they can put pressure within caucus with renewed vigour,” he told The Nightly.

“Relying on the US strategically as a potentially bad idea shouldn’t be seen as a fringe idea, it has been mainstreamed.”

Former ambassador to the US Joe Hockey on Monday said it would be “insane” for Australia to walk away from AUKUS.

“You’ve got the Chinese live firing off the coast of New South Wales and Victoria, and you’ve got some clowns running around the country saying, ‘Let’s divorce ourselves from the Americans’,” the former Liberal treasurer told ABC Radio.

“I mean, what an insane proposition that is.

“Our submarines, which are one of our first lines of defence, are aged and they’re unable to do the job in the next 10 to 20 years, the Virginia class submarine is the best of its class in the world. It’s in production. It’s proven, and the United States is offering us that submarine. It’s offered it to no-one else, and they’re offering us some of the best technology in the world, exclusively to help us to protect our shores.”

A spokesperson for Defence Minister Richard Marles said AUKUS was “a core pillar of the Albanese Government’s national security policy to protect our nation, interests and security”.

The fresh stoush over AUKUS came amid reports the $5 billion plan to extend the lives of the navy’s Collins-class submarines, to bridge the gap before the first Virginia-class vessels arrive, is in disarray.

Following media reports, the Coalition has accused Labor of secretly scaling back the life-of-type extension (LOTE) program, warning Australians the country’s submarine capability was degrading under the Government “at a critical time in our strategic circumstances”.

Defence officials told Senate estimates last month the plan for the first vessel to undergo LOTE in mid to late-2026 remained unchanged, but shadow defence minister Andrew Hastie said the Albanese Government “simply cannot be trusted with Australia’s defence and national security”.

A spokesperson for Mr Marles said the Coalition had “ripped money out of the sustainment of the Collins-class submarines” over a decade, leaving Australia with “the risk of a significant gap in respect of our submarine capability”.

They said Labor had restored the funding cut and would invest up to $5bn over the decade to ensure the Collins-class “remains a potent and credible” ADF platform and prevent any capability gaps until nuclear powered submarines are in service.