Peter Dutton concedes WA Liberals need ‘couple of elections’ to claim back WA after McGowan massacre

Peter Dutton has conceded the WA Liberal Party is some way off reclaiming power and were always going to need time to recover from the “absolute massacre that was the McGowan effect”.

However the Opposition Leader will be buoyed a political expert’s forecast the WA landslide would not be reflected nationally ahead of the looming Federal poll.

Mr Dutton said while swings against Labor were encouraging at the WA election at the weekend — particularly in outer suburban and regional areas — it was going to take a “couple of elections” to overturn the 2021 annihilation.

“In any normal circumstance, talking about 12 or 20 per cent swings in seats would be recorded as a massive landslide,” Mr Dutton told Sky News on Monday.

“But of course, it comes off the back of the absolute massacre that was the McGowan effect.

“There will be a couple of elections to recover from that for the WA Liberal Party.”

McGowan’s successor, Roger Cook, led Labor to an emphatic triumph — on course to be the second biggest in its history after the historic 2021 election — on Saturday.

Labor had claimed at least 41 seats as counting continued on Monday, with the Liberals only taking their Lower House seats from two to five.

Mr Dutton highlighted the ground the Liberals had clawed back in several seats — including Collie in the State’s South West where the Coalition have promised to station one of seven nuclear reactors around the country.

“Look at a seat, or an area like Collie, where we’ve announced one of the seven nuclear sites — the zero emissions nuclear sites, which is designed to bring down power prices — there was a 20 per cent swing to us in that seat,” he said.

“I think that’s because a lot of workers realise that basically they’re buggered. Their jobs are gone under Labor, and there’s no future for that town.

“Regional areas, outer metropolitan areas are the ones who are biggest hit by Labor’s economic mismanagement.”

National’s leader David Littleproud on Monday said the Coalition was also buoyed by swings in seats along Perth’s outskirts.

“I think there is a contest and there are green shoots,” he said.

“I think the question that West Australians will ask themselves once they divorced themselves of the State election and looked towards the Federal election is — do they feel better off after three years of Albanese?

“And will they feel better off if Anthony Albanese, Adam Brandt and a merriment of independents are running this country?

“There’s only two choices to be made. A minority Labor government or a Coalition government.”

But Labor incumbent for Pearce Tracey Roberts said she was not threatened by the Coalition casting their eyes at outer suburban seats such as hers, highlighting successful State campaigns within her northern Perth electorate.

“The Liberals have nothing to offer the north and voters in Pearce know that,” the popular former Wanneroo mayor said.

“I’m so proud of Lorna, Mark, Sabine and Daniel’s positive Labor campaigns, and I’m looking forward to working closely with each of them to build a stronger north.”

“The Liberals opposed all of Labor’s cost of living relief measures in the parliament, and have a history of ripping money out of WA hospitals.

“They’ve trashed their own brand with infighting and learnt nothing.

“Voters have clearly worked out that the Liberals are incapable of actually delivering for our community.”

Mr Dutton credited Mr Cook’s victory to a adopting a similar playbook to Mr McGowan in standing up for WA against Federal policies. He highlighted the Premier’s rejection of Mr Albanese’s Nature Positive laws.

“Anthony Albanese is no Mark McGowan and Anthony Albanese is no Roger Cook,” Mr Dutton said.

“Roger Cook has been standing up for the people of WA, essentially the same way as we have against the Albanese Government policies.”

Monash University head of politics Zareh Ghazarian said WA voters could delineate between State and Federal politics and warned the WA results may not tell the full picture of what will play out at the Federal poll.

“We see areas of difference in terms of how people are approaching state and Federal elections,” he said.

“But generally, of course, those who identify as a Labor voter or a Liberal voter tend to be fairly fixed in their waves.

“It’s in the swing voters who are unaligned will be the ones who move between the parties or candidates on offer.”

He tipped Moore, Tangney and WA’s new seat of Bullwinkel to beseats to watch as parties jostle amid the lower margins.

Dr Ghazarian labelled the affluent western suburbs seat of Curtin as the “great unknown” in the upcoming Federal election.

He said Teal Kate Chaney would be tested with Liberals taking swing wins in State electorates, and voters having a better understanding of what Teal representation offers.

“Now that there’s one term done, this is going to be crunch time for the independence,” he said.

“Base these State results and based on the idea that voters have now got the wisdom of seeing how the independent has been performing for three years, the question is ‘are they going to endorse them again?’

“It’s always going to be tricky. It’s always going to be very hard for an independent to hold their seat.”

Dr Ghazarian said regardless of Labor’s landslide popularity at the last two elections it would be hard for any government to secure a fourth term come 2029.

A failed plot to oust Libby Mettam as Liberal leader and questions around the working relationship with “alliance” Nationals colleagues did not present a strong alternative to voters, Dr Ghazarian said.

He said if the WA Liberals were able to form a more united approach by 2029 they could close in on the seats they gained strong swings in.

“The timing factor has a big role to play. Labor will be going for a fourth term and winning that fourth term is very difficult,” he said.

“Things can happen very quickly, especially in State Politics. It’s not necessarily that there needs to be a set number of election.

“There’s no minimum. It could be in the next election. Momentum can swing very quickly.

“Yes, they are behind and it’s probably unlikely that they can claw back all the seats they need to form government at the next election in four years. But it’s not impossible.

“The really challenge for the Liberal party is to present itself as a cohesive force, as a united force to stop any sort of attacks about their unity in its tracks.”