Australians will pay $50 billion if Ukraine loses war with Russia, former foreign minister warns

Ukraine’s former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has warned Australia that it will be paying $50 billion to defend itself if Ukraine loses the war.

It comes after Australia contributed just $50 million towards buying Ukraine weapons to help fight off Russia’s illegal invasion, as part of a $90 million package, which Mr Kuleba described as a “box-ticking exercise” so that Australia could say to voters that it stands with Ukraine.

The Nightly revealed exclusively that Australia and New Zealand are the first non-NATO countries to fund the NATO PURL scheme, which buys Ukraine the US weapons it needs.

It was Australia’s only contribution to Ukraine’s war effort in 12 months and is part of an overall decline in pace and value of support under the Labor Government.

Publicly, Ukraine has said it is grateful for the $50 million. But Mr Kuleba, who is no longer in government, provided a rare insight into how Australia’s contribution was really perceived.

“Of course, this effort also has to be appreciated, I mean, we are not ungrateful people,” he said, speaking to the Latika Takes podcast.

“But I think when the fourth year of the war is coming to an end, we have to seriously ask ourselves a question: are we ticking the boxes or are we really willing to win?

“Because again, if Russia wins in Ukraine, everyone, including in Australia, is going to feel the shockwaves sent across the globe because the message will be very simple — invading another nation pays out.

“It’s difficult, it’s painful. You also pay a price. But in the end, you get what you want. If this is how Australia sees its part of the world within the next decade, then 50 million is exactly enough to tick the box, but to take this situation to the point where you will have to be spending 50 billion to defend yourself.”

He said that Ukraine could still win the war but that the subject of “victory” had become such a painful topic that nobody talked about it anymore.

Russia has made incremental gains on the battlefield, including capturing the city of Pokrovsk, but only after 12 months of trying.

Nevertheless, Russia has turned the tables on Ukraine, outstripping the smaller nation in the production of drones that is uses to target civilians in cities, combined with missile attacks.

Mr Kuleba said Ukrainians were exhausted by the war and the constant news feed that brought news of death, and that there was widespread support for a ceasefire, but not on any terms.

He said the country needed three security guarantees to survive: sustained weapons supply, EU membership and financial support to help rebuild its war-shattered economy.

Asked whether he wanted the Coalition of the Willing — the French and British-led Western force that could potentially deploy in Ukraine to help preserve any peace agreement, he was cynical about the idea.

“There will be no combat troops in Ukraine. No one is going to fight for us,” he said.

“I rule it out. I rule it out as an option. I do not see, perhaps I’m overly sceptical, but I did not see a situation where US, French, British, German troops fight for Ukraine against Russia in Ukraine.

“But they will be eagerly calling us in when they have to fight for their lands. That is definitely going to happen.”

Mr Putin has boasted that he is ready for war with Europe, and the Russians have been increasing their attacks on NATO countries, through drones and sabotage operations.

The UK’s Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said Russia’s aggression also included reckless breaches of NATO airspace and relentless cyber-attacks.

“A full-spectrum campaign. To test us. To provoke us. And to destabilise us,” Ms Cooper said in a speech in London.

Mr Kuleba said Mr Putin was about to test NATO, within years and that war could easily spread from Ukraine across wider Europe.

“I will say it again. If things do not change in Europe and in the way Europe and America support Ukraine, Putin is going to wage a war against a NATO ally in Europe within years,” he said.

“We are not talking about decades.”

He said the invasion would not be thousands of troops marching across a border but a more invisible attack.

“People will wake up in country X in the morning, and they will read the news that overnight, when they were sleeping, five unidentified drones hit a military warehouse, a port, an electricity facility.

“You already see these things happening. These are not isolated incidents. This is all part of testing waters and preparing for the invasion.

“It’ll be a test for Europe, for the West. And we’ll see how it plays out.”

He said if Brussels, where the EU Commission and NATO are headquartered, hesitated in the first 24 hours of such an attack, it could spell the death of the defence alliance.

Xi not Trump can end the war today

The Trump Administration is attempting to force a peace deal on Ukraine, which heavily favours Russia’s demands, but Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is resisting.

President Zelensky held talks via video link with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock.

“This could be considered the first meeting of the group that will work on a document concerning reconstruction and economic recovery of Ukraine,” Mr Zelensky said on social media.

Mr Kuleba said the only person who could truly end the war immediately was not Donald Trump but China’s President.

“Xi Jinping is the only person in the world who can call, who can pick up the phone and say, Vladimir, it’s time to stop,” Mr Kuleba said.

“Trump has to negotiate, Trump has to make concessions. Trump has to put pressure.

“Given the scale and depths of Russia’s dependence on China, Xi holds the leverage.

“And it’s very good that President Trump finally started talking with Xi about Ukraine.”

But he said China was fine with the war continuing.

“In my view, China doesn’t want either Ukraine or Russia to win this war. Russia’s victory makes Moscow stronger — that’s not the Russia that China is willing to see. They are interested in Russia, which is begging them for help.”

“They do not want Russia to lose because they still need Russia. And more specifically, they need Putin’s Russia.”

Beijing supplies Russia with components to make the drones and other weapons that are used to kill Ukrainians.

This has prompted some criticism by Ukrainian MPs who want the government to take a stronger stance against China, which is also Ukraine’s largest trading partner.

But Kyiv has been careful not to target China for much criticism.

Mr Kuleba said China had a long memory.

“It’s the second superpower and eventually will become the first superpower in the world, and they never forget; they have very good memory.

“So you have to think of where your relationship with China will be in 50 years.

“Our agriculture will always be tempted to enjoy bigger access to the Chinese market, and this will be the biggest leverage.”

Mr Kuleba is regarded as a potential candidate to run for the Presidency to replace Mr Zelensky when elections can be held in peacetime.

The frontrunner in any Presidential race is General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who led the initial heroic war effort at the start of the full-scale invasion and saved Kyiv from Russian capture.

President Zelensky banished both men from frontline roles, largely perceived to be an effort to remove his rivals from the spotlight.

The Russians and the Americans are pressuring President Zelensky to hold elections, something that is banned during wartime. He has said he can hold elections within 90 days during martial law, if the West can supply the necessary security guarantees.

Mr Zelensky remains a popular figure abroad and has been key to rallying global support for Ukraine, but at home, he is becoming unpopular and criticised for his highly centralised style of governing.

Both Mr Kuleba and General Zaluzhnyi have returned to public commentary in the last few weeks.

Mr Kuleba did not rule out the proposition, saying he had “no plans” but that “I am who I am”.

“I’m staying away from politics, but I am who I am and I do not know, and I do not know how what life holds for me,” he said.

“So I don’t feel running now really, but I never shied away from helping the country that I love and dedicated my life to.”