CAMERON MILNER: Queensland leaders stumbling into an election Kat-astrophe

Ahh Queensland, Labor one day, almost certainly LNP the next.

In a big swinging state where leaders wear big hats and big smiles and know how to shake a hand and kiss a baby, the LNP’s diminutive leader Crisafulli though just hasn’t looked the part from the start.

He’s played it timid and small target, he’s stuck like a stain to the Albanese campaign playbook.

Labor meanwhile has been coming home with a wet sail, closing ground fast.

If not for a crucial week lost to Albanese’s cliff-top mansion hubris and tone deafness Queensland Labor and Miles might have actually won another term in office.

All published polls have shown a massive tightening, but time is now Labor’s enemy.

Pre-polls opened for voting a fortnight ago. Crucially many of those who voted early had fresh in their minds that Albanese had bought himself a $4.3m retirement home in the middle of a housing crisis and would’ve registered their disgust and voted anyone else but Labor.

Despite the LNP’s best efforts this last week though to lose yet another unlosable election with a small-target Albo-style campaign they appear to be on track to form government after Saturday night.

They’ve done it the hard way with a leader David Crisafulli could have set up two certain terms in office and may well now end up having to govern in minority with the Katter Australia Party.

Labor rocked up at the starting line with so much lead in the electoral saddlebags it could barely carry Steven Miles as its jockey.

But a good old scare campaign on abortion rights, multiple millions of union campaign funds and a leader that has totally out-campaigned Crisafulli, Labor has brought it back from the brink.

The LNP will rue an opportunity completely missed though if they wake up on Sunday morning looking into Robbie Katter’s eyes as their new partner in government for the next four years.

See the KAP aren’t just from Queensland, they’re from FNQ.

They are a party that wants to repeal Queensland’s current abortion laws.

They love guns and the simplicity of B&S Balls where everyone is a boy or a girl.

They also want to introduce Castle laws, where you will have legal protection to dish justice on the spot with lethal force on home intruders or anyone just stepping on your front lawn.

Though these policies might suit north Queensland, ravaged by youth crime overwhelmingly committed by one cohort of the community, down south, the leafy well to do, Teal-leaning LNP electorates mightn’t react too well to their bush cousin’s plans.

Another policy area of contention is the Brisbane Olympics which have to be delivered by 2032 and for which no construction has commenced.

The Games are deeply unpopular with anyone outside a 5km radius of the CBD but are toxically unpopular in the north where the KAP hail from.

Yes to rodeos and no to Raygun will be the call from the KAP who will want to see money spent north and not on some festival for global elites or debating gender definitions in women’s boxing events.

The key seats to watch if the KAP can gain at least three of them are either Cook, Mulgrave, Thuringowa or Mundingburra.

All in the north and all gains they’ll win at the LNP’s expense.

The rest of the election night count though is now likely to go deep into Saturday night.

On the day, results are more likely to favour the Labor incumbents as they nervously wait hours for the largest pre-poll booths to be counted that will favour the LNP.

The LNP will be hoping there are enough anti-Albo pre-poll voters to offset the stall they’ve had in the closing days of the campaign.

The LNP will also be sweating oldies coming out to vote and the young one’s sleeping in.

The Queensland electorate is now completely divided along age lines.

The over-65s who voted Labor last time because of the Covid response have returned to the Conservative fold.

Labor though has lit up the under 30’s driven almost exclusively on the Chinese government-backed platform of Tik Tok. Miles has been a content producer par excellence and has energised a usually cynical base of millennials. Anecdotal evidence is they are voting in greater numbers than ever before.

The trouble for Labor though is that might help them hold Brisbane-based seats where they also need to hold off the threat of the Greens, but it hasn’t solved the problem in the previous Labor strongholds of regional cities.

Labor’s been smashed by youth crime in these places and voters can’t wait to send Labor a message.

Regardless of whether Crisafulli gets there with just the LNP — or he’s joined at the hip with the KAP for the next four years — he will be the next Premier of Queensland, so in part ‘Mission Accomplished’.

But what’s also clear is voters sure didn’t like seeing another Albo small target campaign. Crisafulli started with a net positive approval in polls to now have a net negative four weeks later.

Following the path of Albanese has squandered a massive lead and may well deliver a minority LNP government at best.

Regardless of the failure of the Albanese-style small-target campaign, Crisafulli can still thank Albo for becoming Premier though.

Those votes were cast while Albanese’s clifftop retirement mansion and taxpayer-funded driveway totally swamped Labor’s message and starved Miles of electoral oxygen.

Wall-to-wall coverage of Albo’s hubris cost Labor dearly right when it mattered most and voters were voting.

They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, so Crisafulli — Premier Crisafulli — can thank Albo for guaranteeing his ascension even if it means dealing the Katters in to form government.