Net overseas immigration levels are still climbing despite rising unemployment and economic strain

Overseas immigration levels have continued to climb, calling into question the sustainability of strong population growth as unemployment rises during a housing crisis.

Australia’s net overseas migration levels edged up to 311,000 in the year to September 30.

If the influx continued for the rest of this financial year, the numbers would be well above the 260,000 level forecast by Treasury for 2025-26.

The latest number was even stronger than the 305,600 level for 2024-25.

Permanent and long-term overseas arrivals made up 73.4 per cent of Australia’s annual population increase of 423,600 in September, with immigration levels almost triple the net birthrate of 112,600.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that while net overseas migration levels were well below the peak of 2023, the slowdown in foreign arrivals would take time.

“Net overseas migration is 45 per cent below its peak, but Treasury expects the fall to be more modest over the forecast period, mainly due to lower than expected departures,” he told an Australian Business Economists lunch in Melbourne on Thursday.

“Treasury’s fertility assumption will also be revised down to reflect lower expected births, in line with international trends.”

Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government needed to actively cut Australia’s high immigration levels because the economy was too weak to sustain it.

“The Albanese Government keeps pumping people into Australia to cover the declining state of the economy under their watch — it is eating into the equity of the nation,” he told The Nightly.

“Continuing to use migration to cover economic rifts and imbalances is unsustainable and must stop.”

The Australian Bureau of Statistics data on population growth was released as new labour force data for February showed unemployment edging up to 4.3 per cent, from 4.1 per cent, as 35,000 people lost their job even before the Iran war began.

The unemployment rate was also rising last year when immigration levels were going up.

“The government is bringing in record numbers of migrants at a time when Australians are losing their jobs and inflation and interest rates are climbing, further demonstrating just how unsustainable the current migration intake is,” the Institute of Public Affairs’ deputy executive director Daniel Wild said.

The IPA, a conservative think tank, has released a new poll showing 79 per cent of 1936 respondents surveyed in February wanted Australia to return to a net overseas migration rate of 100,000 or less, that last consistently existed during the 1990s when the unemployment rate was much higher.

Among the 18-24 age group and Labor voters, seven out of ten wanted a return to lower immigration levels, with the median-priced house in Australia’s big cities beyond the reach of middle and average-income workers.

The poll, by Fox and Hedgehog, also showed three-quarters of first-generation migrants wanted big cuts to immigration levels, with net overseas levels hitting a record annual high of 548,800 in 2023.

“Dramatically cutting immigration is the only way to unify our nation, with Australians of all backgrounds backing a reduction to the rate of migration,” Mr Wild said.

“Australia’s political establishment has failed our nation with years of unrestrained mass migration without providing adequate infrastructure, and without enforcing a meaningful values test on migrants who come here.”

By State, resources-rich Western Australia continued to have the nation’s strongest population growth pace of 2.2 per cent in the year to September, putting it well above the national average of 1.6 per cent, as 10,272 people moved there from another part of Australia and 40,797 came from overseas.

Perth continues to have a particularly tight rental vacancy rate and double-digit house price growth.

NSW had a weaker than average population growth pace of 1.2 per cent despite Sydney taking in more overseas migrants than any other big city.

The State lost 23,353 people to another part of Australia, where housing is cheaper, as 92,889 overseas migrants, on a net basis, moved in.

Victoria’s population growth was slightly stronger than average at 1.7 per cent, with 88,774 moving in from overseas, mainly into Melbourne, as 441 relocated from interstate.

Queensland also had strong population growth of 1.7 per cent based on 19,092 people moving there from interstate as 57,068 came from overseas.

Despite being another strong housing market, South Australia had a weaker population growth pace of 1.1 per cent as 1026 left for another State and 19,375 overseas migrants moved in.

Tasmania had the weakest population growth pace of 0.3 per cent with 1644 relocating to another part of Australia as just 2930 migrated from overseas.

The Northern Territory, with a below-average population growth pace of 1.4 per cent, had the biggest interstate exodus of 2096, outweighed by 3877 new overseas migrants.

The ACT had an even weaker population growth pace of 1.3 per cent as 1686 left for another part of Australia and 5250 overseas migrants moved in.