New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon faces leadership vote as National MPs meet in Wellington

New Zealanders may have a new prime minister by day’s end, with a crunch caucus meeting of the National party set to decide on Chris Luxon’s leadership.

At 9.30am in Wellington, the party’s 49 MPs will meet to consider Mr Luxon’s position after a series of gaffes and poor personal polling.

If a no-confidence vote succeeds, Mr Luxon will be replaced by one of his colleagues, just three months out from the November 7 election.

The signs are pointing to National turfing the former Air New Zealand chief executive.

Radio NZ political editor Jo Moir says the 56-year-old’s leadership is “hanging by a thread,” while NZ Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan - who broke the story of increased discontent on Monday - said Mr Luxon surviving was “incredibly unlikely”.

Such an outcome would be extraordinary and historic.

Unlike Australia, which had four contested prime ministerial changes without an election between 2010 and 2018, New Zealand governing parties tend not to roll their leaders in office.

The last such occasion was in 1997, when National’s Jenny Shipley convinced her colleagues to ditch three-time election winner Jim Bolger.

Adding intrigue to Wednesday’s meeting, there is no obvious contender to replace Mr Luxon.

Deputy Leader Nicola Willis, Education Minister Erica Stanford, Transport Minister Chris Bishop and Police Minister Mark Mitchell have all been mooted as replacements.

No rival candidates came forward during the latest round of leadership speculation back in April, when Mr Luxon moved and won a confidence motion to clear the air.

The current day scenario is made even more remarkable by the fact that National is currently in an election-winning position.

The conservative party currently governs with the support of free-marketers ACT and populists NZ First.

Almost every poll in recent months shows a decent lead for that right bloc over a left bloc of opposition parties Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party.

The rise of upstarts Opportunity in recent weeks has challenged that orthodoxy, though the party is yet to return MPs in three previous attempts.

The key factor appears to be National’s own cratering support, from 38 per cent at the 2023 election to a polling average of about 29 per cent.

If replicated on election day, that figure would end the careers of a string of MPs, including senior ministers.

The accepted thesis is National’s popularity slide is down to Mr Luxon, who has shocking personal favourability ratings.

In 2023, Kiwis were enthused by the former executive’s business credentials and voted him in after campaigning to turn around the economy and reduce government debt.

Mr Luxon has failed to land either pledge, while rubbing many off the wrong way with a series of elitist or out-of-touch comments.

One such episode came in Rotorua last month at a small business forum, when Mr Luxon told struggling operators they were “negative” and should instead be “retooling and radically disrupting your business”.

The next week, he defended his use of a defence force plane to return home after a party fundraiser - a shocking look for a leader who previously was forced to return a housing entitlement to stay at his own mortgage-free property.

Still, he may hold on, if MPs prove to be too squeamish for change so close to the election.