NICOLA SMITH: Will Donald Trump make or break Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton in the Federal election?

The domineering and erratic actions of the Trump White House are shaping up to be a wild card in Australia’s Federal election, and independent female candidates could be the winners.

Political analysts say US President Donald Trump, whose shock tactics on trade and foreign policy have thrown global rules on the bonfire, will now undoubtedly loom large over an election campaign that was expected to focus almost exclusively on the cost of living.

They warn the fast-pace and unpredictable stream of market-shifting news flowing from the Oval Office creates a political minefield in an election campaign and could prove a tripwire or godsend for either Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

One outcome could also be a shift in support towards independent female candidates, suggested Dr Emma Shortis, Director of the International & Security Affairs Program at The Australia Institute.

“While it wouldn’t necessarily be a deciding factor, and it’s very difficult to untangle people’s decision-making in that sense, I think it could certainly be a contributing factor,” she said.

The survey of 2009 Australians released on March 4, shortly before the alarming showdown between Mr Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, revealed a growing sense of anxiety about Australia’s relationship with the United States.

In one of the report’s findings, 56 per cent of women said they felt less secure since the election of Mr Trump.

“When you put that in the context of independent women candidates in traditionally Liberal seats, how does that play out? I think that’s a big question,” Dr Shortis said.

In some of the starkest results of the poll, 31 per cent rated Trump as the greatest threat to world peace, compared to Russian President Vladimir Putin at 27 per cent, and Chinese President Xi Jinping on 27 per cent.

Almost half, 49 per cent, said they felt less secure since the election of President Trump, and 44 per cent said they’d prefer a more independent foreign policy compared to 35 per cent who wanted a closer alliance with the United States.

In a party-political breakdown of the results, 48 per cent of Labor voters would prefer a more independent foreign policy, while 30 per cent would prefer a closer alliance with the US.

Among Coalition voters, 49 per cent would prefer closer ties with the US and 34 per cent would like a more independent foreign policy.

Independent MPs were now raising the profile of foreign policy beyond the traditional bipartisan consensus that had long tried to elevate it above day to day politics, Dr Shortis said.

“It’s very hard to talk about foreign policy if you’re not in the inner circle or considered an expert, and that also seems to be changing as a result of Trump,” she said.

Independents are becoming vocal on foreign affairs and tapping into public unease about the US-Australia relationship in the run up to the election.

“Donald Trump is systematically rolling back progress on women’s rights in the US, and we are seeing Peter Dutton trial many of Trump’s policies here,” Kate Chaney, independent MP for Curtin, WA, said.

“Women in this country will undoubtedly be paying close attention to who will stand up for their rights,” she noted, while vowing to do so.

More widely, Mr Trump was “making everyone feel less safe” by rapidly eroding the international rules-based order that had shaped geopolitics for the past 80 years, she argued.

“Many people are beginning to appreciate the critical need for checks and balances on political power. In Australia, voters are recognising that a strong crossbench can hold the politically powerful to account.”

It’s an emerging theme also being picked up by Zoe Daniel, independent MP for Goldstein, who has blasted the Trump administration for undermining Australia’s national security and assaulting its democratic values.

Lampooning Mr Albanese for his “small target” strategy and Mr Dutton for his love of deploying a “Trumpism” in a recent Guardian article, she said the crossbench would not shy from asking the national security questions that major parties preferred to ignore.

“The uncertainty and instability created by the Trump Whitehouse is reshaping how Australians view the relationship with the United States and our place in the world,” she told The Nightly.

“Voters are looking for their political leaders to enhance and protect Australia’s national interest in a resolute, calm, rational, and intelligent manner. They will find that in their community independents.”

After Canberra was denied an exemption on steel and aluminium tariffs, Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie also waded in, demanding Australia stop “playing nice,” and “stand its ground,” suggesting US marines in Darwin could be given their marching orders.

“America is no longer a reliable ally – hopefully that will change, but in the meantime we can’t keep assuming that America has our back. Trump clearly doesn’t have anyone’s back except his own,” she said.

The sharp turnaround in fortunes for Canada’s Liberals is evidence of Mr Trump’s ability to change political dynamics overseas.

A surge in support for the Liberals, now under the leadership of former bank governor Mark Carney, pictured above, and the smashing of the Conservatives’ double-digits lead, has been widely linked to fractious relations with the US since the Trump inauguration.

The Liberals have ridden a wave of national unity under the threats of crippling tariffs and annexation from a once friendly southern neighbour and ally.

Mr Trump’s cavalier approach to Canada’s economy and repeated calls to make Canada “the 51st State” have also dramatically altered voters’ priorities, diverting attention from cost-of-living pressures.

While there is no direct comparison betweenJU Australia and Canada, Jared Mondschein, director of research at the United States Studies Centre, said therewas no doubt Mr Trump would be a factor in the Federal election campaign, although it was unclear how it would play out.

“It’s not really a question of whether he will be or not, just the question of what impact will he have?” he said. “And I don’t think it’s as straightforward as people may assume.”

But Mike Pezzullo, former secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, said it was “difficult to see how the ‘Trump factor’ will decisively change the electoral landscape,” beyond the daily intrusion of disruptive changes in the external environment that would shape the news.

While Canadians saw their sovereignty under challenge, “the situation in Australia is being more indirectly impacted by the decisions and actions of the Trump administration,” he said.

“What will be more impactful during the campaign will be the turbulence caused by world events, which will take up attention spans and divert the public discussion away from what the major parties may wish to focus on in their daily campaign schedules.”