THE WASHINGTON POST: Marco Rubio quietly signals US won’t scupper submarine deal with Australia

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio privately reassured a top Australian official that a deal to provide the US ally with nuclear-powered submarines, which is under review by the Pentagon, will not be terminated, according to six people familiar with the matter.

The pact between the United States, Britain and Australia — or AUKUS, after the initials of the three countries — would bring Canberra into an exclusive club of nations possessing the powerful weapons platform. The Pentagon this year began a review of the multibillion-dollar deal, prompting concerns that the administration might abandon the project.

But two weeks ago, Mr Rubio, who is also national security adviser, told Australia’s deputy prime minister Richard Marles, in Washington that the submarine partnership would continue, according to the people familiar with the conversation, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

Mr Marles’ trip was intended to gauge the administration’s support for AUKUS and lay the groundwork for what Canberra hopes will be a summit between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Donald Trump later this month, according to several of the people.

Some of the uncertainty around that support stemmed from the official review, launched by the Pentagon’s policy chief, Elbridge Colby, a previous critic of the submarine deal’s practicality. In February, Mr Trump did not appear to know what AUKUS was during an Oval Office meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth later said that Mr Trump was “very aware, supportive of” the agreement. Mr Trump also expressed support for the deal at the Group of Seven meeting in June. “We’re proceeding with that,” he said, speaking beside Mr Starmer.

“The State Department is coordinating closely with the Department of War as it conducts its review of AUKUS,” a senior administration official said in a statement. “We remain committed to working with Australia to strengthen and advance the alliance.”

The Australian Embassy in Washington declined to comment. The Pentagon and State Department did not comment.

“Basically the message to the Australians is it’s going to be fine,” said a defence expert familiar with the administration’s thinking.

The AUKUS pact was announced four years ago by the three countries’ then leaders: President Joe Biden, Britain’s Boris Johnson and Australia’s Scott Morrison. It calls for the US to sell state-of-the-art Virginia-class attack subs to Australia beginning in the early 2030s until the Australians can develop the capacity to build their own British-designed model with either US or British nuclear propulsion technology. That idea is for the latter to happen by the 2040s.

The agreement was intended to reinforce the military capabilities of US allies in the Indo-Pacific and signal a strong collective effort to counter China’s increasingly bold power projection in the region.

Nuclear propulsion provides submarines with exceptional endurance and operational flexibility, allowing them to remain submerged for months, limiting detection and increasing stealth.

Reaffirming AUKUS, or a rebranded version that carries Mr Trump’s imprimatur, “will be a very positive step that will boost the US industrial base, strengthen one of the US’s closest allies and stabilise the region,” Charles Edel, Australia chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said.

If it falters, the US becomes “less capable, less present” and its international credibility will “take a big hit”, he said.

News of the AUKUS review was first reported by the Financial Times in June. The Pentagon review announcement came shortly after the Defence Department publicly pressed Australia to raise its defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP, a move that rankled Canberra.

“We’ll determine our defence policy,” Mr Albanese said at the time.

Mr Colby has publicly questioned the rationale behind sharing the submarines — even with a close US ally — when the US defence industry is already struggling to meet the congressionally mandated requirement to build two Virginia-class submarines a year. The shipyards produce 1.3 subs a year.

To speed up the production of the boats, Australia has agreed to invest $US3 billion in the US submarine industry, but even then producing enough skilled workers to build them will be a major challenge, experts say.

The uncertainty surrounding AUKUS has worried other countries in the region hoping to collaborate on projects with the United States. Washington has recently launched efforts to build missiles with Japan and jet engines with India, to buttress their capabilities against China’s industrial might.

The agreement also enables US military access to a port in Western Australia, a gateway to the Indian Ocean and other contested areas, such as the South China Sea.

Mr Hegseth must still sign off on the official review, which will inform the Trump administration’s final decision. While there may be tweaks to the timelines involved in the agreement, multiple people said, the core commitment to supplying the submarines appears firm.

The second “pillar” of the AUKUS program involves advanced technology. The intention now, said people familiar with the deliberations, is to turn away from long-term research into exquisite technologies in favour of developing advanced weapons that can be fielded sooner, such as hypersonic weapons and autonomous drones.

“The idea was to focus on advanced stuff that can be in the air and water quickly,” the defence expert said.

This week, Mr Marles said Australia will spend $1.7 billion to build dozens of underwater attack drones. The stealthy, long-range Ghost Sharks will complement the nuclear-powered submarines and are scheduled to start being delivered to the Australian navy in January, he said.

AUKUS has wide bipartisan support in US Congress, whose members have urged the administration to preserve the deal. Senator Chris Coons and Representative Trent Kelly led a delegation to Australia, reassuring Mr Albanese, lawmakers and other top officials about Washington’s commitment to the strategic pact. “The tensions in our partnership caused by tariffs and the Pentagon’s AUKUS review need to be put to rest,” they wrote upon their return.

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