LATIKA M BOURKE: Europe gets well-earned reprieve on Greenland but shouldn’t take the wrong lesson

Donald Trump backed down, after all, and again.

“Based upon a very productive meeting that I have had with the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region. This solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the United States of America and all NATO Nations. Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st,” he wrote in a lengthy post on social media.

He said that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice-President JD Vance and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff would sort out the details.

Mr Trump had earlier given a rambling address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, saying he would not use military force to acquire Greenland but remained serious about opening negotiations for the US to take control.

Mr Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs of between 10 and up to 25 per cent on the UK and Europe if they didn’t let him take over Greenland shocked allies, but more critically, his own ranks, including Republicans, at least one of whom warned such an approach could see him impeached for a third time.

Trump had been crab walking back ever since.

After telling the crowd in Switzerland that the Europeans called him “Daddy”, a reference to NATO boss Mark Rutte, who last year referred to the US leader as the “Daddy” that needed to adjudicate between warring Hamas and Israel, he went to visit Europe’s “Daddy-whisperer”.

Whatever flattery Rutte used this time did the trick. Trump was provided with an elegant enough off-ramp, and the US President wisely took it.

NATO spokeswoman Allison Hart said that negotiations between Denmark, Greenland and the US would ensure that “Russia and China never gain a foothold — economically or militarily — in Greenland”.

Trump’s backdown is a great win for Europe and a vindication of the subterranean approach taken by Rutte, who had virtually disappeared from the public eye and refused to make any public comments about Greenland since the White House first revived its threats after the raid on Venezuela.

Speaking on a panel at Davos earlier, he explained why it was impossible for the NATO Secretary-General to comment on tensions between member states.

“Why is that impossible? Because as soon as I do, I cannot any longer help to somehow, with others of course … basically to defuse the tension, de-escalate, etc,” he said.

“That’s why you will not hear me comment; you can be assured that behind the scenes, I am working on this issue, but I cannot do it in public. No comments from on Greenland.

“In the end, thoughtful diplomacy, so statements from me will not add anything here.”

Mr Rutte managed to laugh when the moderator noted that Mr Trump had released his text messages (for a second time), thereby making the NATO bosses’ thoughts and tactics public.

It is also a tick for the calm but firm approach taken by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who on Sunday said she would approach the challenges to the European solidarity with “steadiness and resolve”. This paid off.

Ms von der Leyen issued that statement along with Mr Rutte, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

This grouping is the new powerhouse of Europe, and it should be welcomed that Starmer, whose clear strength is foreign policy, is on that list. It is becoming clear that the turmoil in the reassembling world order will involve the UK and EU drawing each other even closer, one decade after the Brexit referendum.

Europe’s reprieve is well-earned. And while it is one that should never have even needed to be granted in the first place, there is a danger that Europeans will take the wrong lesson.

Davos 2026 will be remembered for one speech — that given by Mark Carney. The Canadian prime minister said it was time to end the fiction of the “rules-based order” and adapt to a world where superpowers weaponised economic integration against weaker nations.

He called on middle powers, especially, to adjust by forming new coalitions based on values and shared objectives.

But the grouping that most urgently needs to listen to Mr Carney’s advice is the European Union.

Wednesday was a classic example of enough Europeans opting for self-harm despite every warning siren blaring that the time for change, adaptation and self-sufficiency is now.

On the weekend, Ms von der Leyen was in Paraguay to sign off on the Mercosur trade deal. Those negotiations between the protectionist EU began 25 years ago and were finalised as part of von der Leyen’s quest to make the Commission more geopolitical.

Mercosur, comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and recently Bolivia, along with the EU will create a mega-market of 700 million people. The deal strives to remove 90 per cent of tariffs and would create one of the world’s largest free trade zones, amounting to around one-fifth of global GDP.

Instead of recognising this as the exact sort of breakthrough Europe needs as it tries to chart a path between a coercive China and an impulsive wrecker in the White House, the European Parliament voted to ask the European Court of Justice for a legal opinion on whether the trade agreement is in line with EU treaties.

The vote, which serves as somewhat of a proxy for support for the new trade deal, was narrow, 334 to 324 and 11 abstentions. The result essentially means delaying the agreement for up to two years.

Mr Merz, a fierce backer of Mercosur, called for a loophole to be used, enabling the Commission to begin implementing the deal anyway. He said Parliament’s delay was “regrettable” and misjudged the “geopolitical situation”.

But 44 members of the EPP party, aligned with the Commission President and Mr Merz, defected to help vote down the deal, with the bulk of defectors hailing from Hungary, Poland and France.

Michal Kobosko, a Polish MEP said his country’s farmers were priority.

“I voted it to be sent to ECJ,” he told The Nightly.

“And that goes in line with the position of my coalition government in Poland, which as you may know was one of the opponents of the Mercosur terms from the beginning.”

“I do see this necessity. Europe does need to search for new partners. It’s just that Polish farmers, which were among the key protesters in Strasbourg today and yesterday, do not feel secure with the terms of the treaty and possible effect for the local food market.”

Overriding the Parliament would put the Commission in the invidious position of being seen as bulldozing over the concerns of farmers, who have been protesting with their tractors in Strasbourg, where the vote took place. It would be manna for the populists and it is an own goal.

This behaviour might have suited Europe in the days when the world pretended to believe, as Mr Carney put it, in the fairytale of the rules-based order.

But it is the same sort of indulgence via resort to bureaucratic procedure that forced Mr Trump to take US membership of NATO to the brink to secure fairer European funding for the Alliance.

“Europe shot itself in the foot by postponing the EU-Mercosur trade agreement,” Guy Verhofstadt, who served as Belgium’s prime minister between 1999 and 2008 said.

“Absolutely irresponsible. This is an own goal,” raged Bernd Lange, a German socialist, progressive Member of the European Parliament who leads on trade.

“Very harmful for our economic interests and standing. Team Europe putting itself offside.”

France’s Mr Macron, who regularly calls for Europe to have its own “strategic autonomy”, has authorised his official social media account to start fact-checking Trump’s statements about France.

Fine. But imagine if he had as much courage to tell his own farmers that they already subsided to the tune of one-third of the EU’s budget and that their interests alone should only ever be balanced against the wider Union’s interests, rather than simply pander to French anti-Americanism.

“One of the most depressing aspects of this whole Mercosur story is the way that French (but not only) moderate politicians, hail today’s European Parliament decision and five minutes later claim that Europe is strong…” observed Rupert Schlegemilch, a former head of the Commission’s trade department DG Trade.

“It is hard to understand this collective lack of responsibility in a geopolitical situation putting Europe under growing strain and at a moment when the urgent necessity to diversify our export and import markets could not be clearer,” Markus Beyrer, Director of BusinessEurope said in a statement.

“After more than 25 years of negotiations, the swift ratification of the EU-Mercosur agreement would have been one of the best opportunities to show Europe’s capacity to act in the global arena and to reduce unhealthy dependencies.

“Against this backdrop, BusinessEurope is deeply concerned about the consequences of yet another delay to an agreement of such economic and geopolitical decisiveness.”

In theory, the EU, with its 27 member states and a GDP of almost €18 trillion (AUD$30t) , should be competing with India to be the third decisive power in the world order that is being written before our eyes.

“If Europe emerged as a powerful actor, this would change the chessboard in interesting ways, and I think the reality that we’ve seen, especially as President Trump has behaved as he has, is that the chessboard that we’ve been accustomed to is no longer going to be the space for the future,” the American political scientist Graham Allison told an audience at Davos, as he reflected on the great power competition between the US and China.

But if it continues to reach for the straitjacket of an insecure middle power, it will consign itself to a mere pawn in Xi and Trump’s grand game.