When to expect midterm results in each state

For each of the seats up for election Tuesday US time, the time it takes to project a winner will depend on two factors: how fast the state counts its votes, and how close the race is.

We can look to past elections for what to expect for counting, but there’s still a lot of variability when it comes to calling tight races, and it wouldn’t be surprising if election night were over before we knew which party would win control of the House and Senate.

States with fewer voters, high rates of early voting or early poll close times often report nearly all their results before midnight Eastern time (4pm Sydney time). In states with large populations, high rates of mail voting or systems like ranked choice voting, counts can take days or even weeks.

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But fast counts don’t guarantee rapid race calls. Organisations like The Associated Press project a winner only when they are confident that it isn’t possible for the trailing candidate to pull ahead. If the race is coming down to a small number of votes, the AP won’t make a call until every overseas, military and provisional ballot has been tallied.

In 2024, the House race with the smallest final margin — 187 votes — was not called until 29 days after the election.

It’s worth noting that all election results are unofficial until they are certified by the states and that batches of ballots that arrive in the days or weeks after election night — even those that result in a new leading candidate — are a normal part of the process.

This cycle, early vote data indicates that, in several key states, registered Democrats have been disproportionately likely to cast ballots early. Those votes are usually among the first to be reported, so it is possible that many races will feature “blue mirages,” with the Democratic candidate’s lead in the reported vote shrinking over time as more ballots cast on Election Day are counted.

Below is when polls close for each state in local time, and when a result is likely in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.

ALABAMA

Polls close at 8 p.m.

Most results are typically reported by 5pm AEDT, and recent congressional races have all been called by the AP on election night.

ALASKA

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at midnight and 1 a.m.

First results are expected around 5pm AEDT. In 2024, about 75% of votes were reported on election night, and the remaining votes were reported between seven and 15 days later. Ranked choice voting is used in federal and state races; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the next tabulation will be conducted on Nov. 18.

ARIZONA

Polls close at 9 p.m.

First results usually come in around 2pm AEDT. Most voters cast ballots by mail, and full, unofficial counting typically takes days.

ARKANSAS

Polls close at 8:30 p.m.

Most results are typically reported late Thursday AEDT, and recent congressional races have all been called by the AP on election night.

CALIFORNIA

Polls close at 11 p.m.

Most voters cast votes by mail, and ballots can take days — or even weeks — to count. Counties have until the 13th day after the election to report their votes, with some exceptions. During the state’s June primaries, this slow process fostered suspicion when two candidates flipped positions five days into vote counting — a phenomenon that is common with election results but usually happens quickly on election night.

COLORADO

Polls close at 9 p.m.

The state has long conducted its elections by mail. In 2022 and in 2024, it took about four days to report 95% of votes in statewide races.

CONNECTICUT

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In 2024, it took a day and a half before most votes were counted. But because the state’s congressional races were not especially competitive, they were all called on election night or in the early morning after.

DELAWARE

Polls close at 8 p.m.

Votes are reported fast, with nearly all ballots counted before 2pm AEDT in recent elections.

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In 2024, about 87% of votes were reported by 4am AEDT Thursday. The district recently implemented ranked choice voting, so if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in certain races, it could take days before additional tabulations are released.

FLORIDA

Polls close at 7 p.m. and 8 p.m.

Votes are counted very quickly, with 99% of votes reported by midnight in recent general elections. First results are expected after most polls close at 11am AEDT

GEORGIA

Polls close at 7 p.m.

Most voters tend to vote early in person, and vote reporting is usually relatively fast. But if a race is very close, it can still take a while to declare a winner. In 2022, it took until Thursday morning AEDT for the AP to declare that the top Senate candidates had advanced to a runoff, which was held on Dec. 6.

HAWAII

Polls close at midnight.

The state runs a predominantly mail election. In 2024, it took until about 8am AEDT Thursday to reach 95% of votes.

IDAHO

Polls close at 10 p.m. and 11 p.m.

First results are expected after 3pm AEDT. In 2022 and 2024, most results were reported by late Wednesday.

ILLINOIS

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In 2024, nearly 95% of votes were reported by 4am AEDT Thursday. Ballots postmarked by Election Day have two weeks to arrive.

INDIANA

Polls close at 6 p.m. and 7 p.m.

First results are expected after polls close in most of the state at 10am AEDT. In 2022 and 2024, most ballots were counted by 4am AEDT Thursday.

IOWA

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 9 p.m.

In 2024, 90% of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT, and 99% were in by 4am Thursday. One extremely close House race went to a recount and took weeks to decide.

KANSAS

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 8 p.m. and 9 p.m.

Most votes were reported by 4am AEDT Thursday in 2022 and 2024. Mail ballots have three days to arrive if postmarked by Election Day, but only about 1 in 10 voters cast them.

KENTUCKY

Polls close at 6 p.m. and 7 p.m.

First results are expected after polls close in most of the state at 10am AEDT. In 2024, nearly all votes were counted by midnight on election night.

LOUISIANA

Polls close at 9 p.m.

Most votes are typically reported by 4pm AEDT. Elections for the state’s six U.S. House seats will be open primaries; if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two vote-getters will advance to a Dec. 12 election.

MAINE

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In 2024, it took about a day and a half to reach 95% of votes. Ranked choice will be used in the Senate and 2nd Congressional District races, and only first rankings will be available; if no candidate receives a majority, a second tabulation will occur in the days after the election. In 2024, the results of a House race that required a second round were released 10 days after the election.

MARYLAND

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In 2024, 80% of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT, and it took several days to reach 95% of votes. Ballots postmarked by Election Day have 10 days to arrive.

MASSACHUSETTS

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In 2024, about two-thirds of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT, but officials said a longer ballot this year could take more time to process. Ballots postmarked by Election Day have three days to arrive.

MICHIGAN

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 8 p.m. and 9 p.m.

In 2022 and 2024, about half the votes were reported by 4pm AEDT, and the count reached 95% around 6 a.m. Wednesday.

MINNESOTA

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 9 p.m.

In 2024, 56% of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT, and complete unofficial results were in by 4am the next day. The deadline for hand-returning absentee ballots on Election Day is now 10am AEDT instead of when the polls close.

MISSISSIPPI

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In 2024, 84% of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT. But because the state’s congressional races are not typically competitive, the AP tends to call them not long after polls close.

MISSOURI

Polls close at 8 p.m.

Most results are typically reported by late Thursday AEDT, and recent congressional races have all been called by the AP on election night.

MONTANA

Polls close at 10 p.m.

Most voters cast ballots by mail, which must be received by Election Day. In recent elections, it has taken a day or two to count 95% of the votes.

NEBRASKA

Polls close at 9 p.m.

In 2024, about 60% of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT, and 95% were in by 5 a.m.

NEVADA

Polls close at 10 p.m.

In 2024, just under half of voters cast ballots by mail, and it took about two days to report 95% of votes. Postmarked ballots must arrive by the fourth day after the election, Nov. 7.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 7 p.m. and 8 p.m.

Vote counting was faster in 2024 than in 2022, with three-quarters of votes reported by midnight, and 93% reported by 4am AEDT Thursday.

NEW JERSEY

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In 2024, 91% of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT, and 96% were in by 4am the next day.

NEW MEXICO

Polls close at 9 p.m.

By 5pm AEDT, processing of absentee ballots must either conclude, or pause and resume the next day. In the last two general elections, nearly all unofficial results were reported by 4am Thursday the day after the election.

NEW YORK

Polls close at 9 p.m.

Most votes are expected by 4am Thursday AEDT. Mail ballots have a week to arrive if postmarked by Election Day, but only about 1 in 10 voters cast them in 2024.

NORTH CAROLINA

Polls close at 7:30 p.m.

In 2024, 95% of votes were reported just after 4pm AEDT, and procedural changes could make that even faster this year.

NORTH DAKOTA

Polls close at 8 p.m. and 9 p.m.

In recent general elections, nearly all unofficial results were reported by 4am AEDT Thursday.

OHIO

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 7:30 p.m.

In recent general elections, 95% of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT. Officials expect nearly all unofficial votes to be counted before they leave for the night, because absentee ballots are now due on Election Day instead of four days later (if postmarked). In 2024, it took more than two weeks for the AP to call a winner in an extremely close race.

OKLAHOMA

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In recent general elections, nearly all votes have been reported by 4pm AEDT.

OREGON

Polls close at 11 p.m.

In recent elections, it has taken more than a week to reach 95% of votes counted. The state conducts all-mail elections, and ballots postmarked by Election Day have seven days to arrive.

PENNSYLVANIA

Polls close at 8 p.m.

In the past two general elections, 97% of votes were counted by 4am AEDT Thursday after the election. Counting has sped up since 2020, when it took several days to finish counting mail ballots.

RHODE ISLAND

Polls close at 8 p.m.

Most votes are typically counted by around 4pm AEDT.

SOUTH CAROLINA

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 7 p.m.

Most votes are typically counted by midnight 4pm AEDT.

SOUTH DAKOTA

Polls close at 8 p.m. and 9 p.m.

First results are expected after 1pm AEDT. More than one-third of voters cast ballots by mail in 2024, and 92% of votes were reported by noon Eastern time Wednesday.

TENNESSEE

Polls close at 8 p.m.

Most votes are typically counted by 4pm AEDT.

TEXAS

(Senate battleground)

Polls close at 8 p.m. and 9 p.m.

In recent elections, 80% to 90% of votes were reported by 4pm AEDT, and 99% were in before 7 a.m. the day after the election. Voting by mail requires a valid excuse, and only a small share of voters cast ballots this way.

UTAH

Polls close at 10 p.m.

Most voters cast ballots by mail or drop box, and it has typically taken more than a week to count 95% of votes. But new rules requiring officials to verify the last four digits of voters’ Social Security or driver’s license numbers are expected to extend that timeline.

VERMONT

Polls close at 7 p.m.

Nearly all votes are typically counted by 4am on Thursday AEDT the day after the election.

VIRGINIA

Polls close at 7 p.m.

In recent elections, the state reached 95% of votes reported on election night or in the early morning hours after.

WASHINGTON

Polls close at 11 p.m.

In recent general elections, it has taken about eight days to report 95% of votes. Nearly all voters cast ballots by mail or drop box, and ballots with a postmark have 20 days to arrive.

WEST VIRGINIA

Polls close at 7:30 p.m.

In recent general elections, more than 95% of votes have been reported by midnight.

WISCONSIN

Polls close at 9 p.m.

In 2024, 95% of votes were reported by 9pm AEDT tonight after the election. In some places, absentee ballots are counted at a central facility and reported in large batches.

WYOMING

Polls close at 9 p.m.

In recent general elections, full unofficial results were reported by 4am on Thursday.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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