New Zealand election results: Vote counting continues as Chris Luxon says goodbye to key ministers
At least three National ministers won't be returning to parliament, creating vacancies at the heart of Chris Luxon's government if it gets a second term.
New Zealand’s next government may be decided by just a few per cent, or a couple of hundred votes in the most marginal seats.
The closest election in living memory ended in an impasse on Saturday night, with neither side confident enough to claim victory.
Prime Minister Chris Luxon came the closest, saying his National party had “a pathway to government”, even as he lost key ministers including deputy Nicola Willis.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.His National party, and coalition partners ACT and NZ First combined for 49.9 per cent of the vote, or 67 seats according to projections.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins was less rosy, saying only it was “too close to call” and would require the finalisation of vote counting.
Labour, and its likely support parties the Greens and Maori Party, as well as new teal force Opportunity, combined for 49.2 per cent, or 64 seats.
The tightness of the contest means the result will not be known until hundreds of thousands of “special votes” are added into the mix and announced on November 27.
Those votes, including new and changed enrolments, overseas and out-of-electorate ballots, typically favour the left, giving hope to Mr Hipkins to form New Zealand’s first four-party coalition.
A handful of seats with narrow National leads - Hamilton East, Wairarapa and Whangarei - will be eagerly watched to determine the whole picture.
Even if National’s conservative government does cling on, Mr Luxon will confront a radically different political environment.
The man who led National from the wilderness back to government in 2023 with 38 per cent of the result is now a much-diminished figure, polling just over 29 per cent in 2026.
The 56-year-old survived two aborted leadership challenges in the months leading up to the poll and remains an unpopular political figure in tough economic times.
Mr Luxon must also find a new party deputy, a new speaker and three new cabinet ministers who lost their political careers in the result.
Ms Willis is the biggest loss, as National’s second-in-command, most senior moderate and finance minister, akin to Australia’s treasurer.
Paul Goldsmith, who holds 11 portfolios including justice and defence, is also gone, as is speaker Gerry Brownlee, first elected in 1996.
Former campaign chair and multi-portfolio minister Chris Bishop is also all but certain to miss re-election in another hammer blow for the government.
“Some of the hardest phone calls tonight have been to colleagues and friends who look unlikely to make it back into parliament,” Mr Luxon said.
“In particular, I’m thinking of our most incredible deputy leader Nicola Willis.
“I want to thank you, Nicola, for your dedication, for your determination and for your years of service to our party and this great country of ours.”
Contenders for the coveted finance role include campaign chair Simeon Brown, education minister Erica Stanford or ACT leader David Seymour.
Ms Stanford wouldn’t be drawn on that possibility on Saturday night, saying it was too soon to say.
