YouGov poll shows Federal Labor with narrow lead over Coalition for first time in eight months

A majority of voters have backed Labor for the first time in eight months after its multi-billion dollar Medicare boost and support for Ukraine won hearts and minds.

Fresh polling by YouGov, provided to AAP, found the federal government is ahead of the coalition, at 51 per cent to 49 per cent, in the two-party preferred vote while its primary vote has risen by three percentage points.

Labor has not been ahead in the pollster’s data since July 2024. Last week, it was trailing the opposition, at 49 per cent to 51 per cent.

“We don’t see big changes like this very often,” YouGov’s director of public data Paul Smith told AAP.

Anthony Albanese has widened his lead as preferred prime minister to six percentage points from two, with 45 per cent of voters now backing the Labor leader compared to 39 per cent for Coalition Leader Peter Dutton.

“That’s a big gap in a week - it’s beyond the margin of error,” Mr Smith said.

Labor’s $8.5 billion boost to Medicare, announced in late February, played a significant role in lifting the party’s primary vote to 31 per cent, although it still trails the coalition on 36 per cent.

Mr Albanese’s strong show of support for Ukraine in the face of a public spat between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart also contributed to a “very epic rise” in the prime minister’s personal standing.

Mr Dutton and Mr Albanese were generally united in their stance on the war in Ukraine, but the prime minister benefited more because he was Australia’s leader, Mr Smith said.

The number of respondents satisfied with the prime minister rose to 42 per cent, from 40 per cent, while those content with Mr Dutton’s performance fell to 43 per cent from 44 per cent.

With an election due to be held by May 17 at the latest, the data provides a much-needed confidence boost for Labor, which has seen its popular support wane since the heady heights it enjoyed after winning government in 2022.

The Greens’ primary vote has continued to fluctuate, dropping to 13 per cent, from 14, while the proportion of respondents preferring an independent candidate has remained at 10 per cent.

Speculation has been mounting that Mr Albanese could call an election in coming days for an April 12 polling date.

But a tropical cyclone heading towards Queensland and northern NSW has thrown any potential plans in the air.

The YouGov poll of 1504 people was conducted between February 28 and March 6 and has a margin of error of 3.4 per cent.