Peter Dutton’s seat of Dixon: Opposition Leader faces first election hurdle of winning once-safe Qld seat

Once the starting gun is fired on the official election campaign, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will be busy criss-crossing the country, making the case to voters he should be the next Prime Minister — but he also has a fight brewing in his own backyard.

His electorate of Dickson, which he has held since 2001, is now the most marginal seat in Queensland — held by just 1.7 per cent.

The electorate has changed significantly in the past 24 years, and three significant opponents are now in the ring fighting to boot him from office.

All politics is local, and while experts believe it would be highly unlikely for him to lose his seat, Labor insiders see Dutton’s $1.3 million announcement this week for funding to a local youth development foundation as a sign the Opposition Leader is alive to the threat.

Hoping the old adage of “third time lucky” comes to pass, Labor’s Ali France, a world champion para-athlete, feels “very positive” that there is enough of a mood for change this time around to finally deliver her to Parliament House.

She could be helped by preferences flowing from the Greens, where para-table tennis pro and environmental scientist Vinnie Batten is back for a second round.

He collected 13 per cent of the primary vote in 2022, and believes the cohort looking for an alternative local member “is definitely growing”.

“Maroon” independent Ellie Smith, an environmental consultant backed in part by Climate-200, is also hoping to shake things up this time around.

“There is a sense that it’s time for change,” she told The Nightly.

On the surface the three candidates don’t have a lot in common, but they all believe the electorate they call home deserves better representation that what Mr Dutton is offering.

Dutton acknowledges that this election, like every other, will be a “tough fight”.

“I’ve never taken the people of Dickson for granted. It’s always been a marginal seat, and I’ve worked hard every single day to deliver for our community,” he told The Nightly.

“Whether it’s been fighting to improve local roads . . . or helping at-risk youth build skills, confidence and find jobs, I’m committed to getting things done for our community.

“As Opposition Leader, I have to balance responsibilities, but people in Dickson know I’ve always been accessible, I’ve always listened, and I’ve always delivered.

“My priority is making sure our community gets the support it needs, and I’ll keep working hard to do exactly that.”

The electorate of Dickson encompasses 724sq km of working-class and middle-class outer-suburban Brisbane, extending up to sprawling estates and farmland in Samford and Dayboro.

Neighbouring to the west is Labor-held Blair — which the Coalition has a chance of gaining this time around. To Dickson’s south are Greens-held Ryan and Brisbane, to its southwest Labor’s Lilley, and to its east and north are LNP strongholds Petrie and Longman.

Cost-of-living is the biggest issue facing voters in Dickson, as it is across the country.

Ms France, who has been on a doorknocking campaign for six months but has “been campaigning non-stop for seven years”, says voters don’t feel like their local member is taking things seriously enough.

“I think people this time around are really getting to know Peter Dutton, and the feedback that I’m getting is that it’s not necessarily a positive thing . . . They’re getting to know his priorities,” she told The Nightly.

She said they “can see that he’s not talking about cost of living”.

“Labor has demonstrated over the last three years that we’re really serious about bringing down the cost of living. Peter Dutton has opposed every single cost of living measure that we’ve introduced,” she said.

“The promises that he’s made so far in this election . . . I just don’t think they are addressing what people need. It’s all about cost of living here, and people want to see a Government really focused on that.”

Batten and his volunteers have also been on a community engagement blitz in recent months, doorknocking and hosting market stalls across the electorate to speak directly to voters.

“What we’ve been hearing form the community is . . . now that the magnifying glass is on Peter Dutton as Opposition Leader, people are starting to see his ideology and his efforts to import these Trump-like policies and I think that really is turning off a lot of people in the electorate,” he told The Nightly.

He said there were voters “disappointed and disenfranchised” by the Labor Government, who were now looking for an alternative.

About one in three people voted for a minor party or an independent nationally at the last election, and the pre-election influx of opinion polls suggest that cohort could grow this time around.

Ms Smith says there appears to be a real appetite in Dickson for a community independent.

“People just love the idea of having an independent that’s going to be focused on our local community, and not involved in all of the party bickering,” she said.

“There’s a lot of hope from the volunteers definitely that we can win this and out in the electorate, there’s a lot of discontent with both major parties.

“Giving them an option that’s a credible independent is really exciting.”

But Queensland political scientist, Griffith University’s Paul Williams, thinks her chances of success are very slim.

“This is the wrong electorate. I know they don’t like to be called teals, but if they look or smell like a teal they won’t win (here). This is tiger country — anti-political correctness territory. This is the completely wrong seat for a teal,” he told The Nightly.

He said the chances of Mr Dutton losing his seat are even slimmer.

“Him being Opposition Leader, that comes with a lot of prestige. And it’s very rare for a leader to lose his seat,” he said.

“The tide is out against Labor so it’s the perfect seat for him, he may well push it out into fairly safe seat territory this time around, extend the margin out to 6.5 per cent.”

Mr Dutton, acknowledging he has three opponents throwing “everything they can at this seat”, is hopeful constituents will heed his warning that “we can’t afford another three years of Labor”.

“I’m confident that if people look at my record and the work I’ve done in our community, they’ll back me to keep delivering,” he said,

“The choice is clear: a vote for Labor, the Greens, or the green-teal just means three more years of an Albanese Government.”

Preferences will be important come election night given the slim margin.

Ms France says while she’ll be focused on her own race, “Peter Dutton gets in on the back of preferences”.

“Preferences are important, but I think at the end of the day if you don’t want Peter Dutton to be Prime Minister, you’ve just got to vote Labor,” she said.

Ms Smith has prompted some eyebrow raising in the electorate for saying she would not make preference recommendations on her how-to-vote cards.

She said she hoped that providing voters a credible candidate whose sole focus is on the community would challenge tendencies to vote from the bottom up.

“Giving them an option of somebody local who’s going to focus on local issues as their first preference, and then they’ll still preference how that belongs,” she said.

“It’s not asking somebody to jump from having always voted for the LNP to voting Labor, but actually just voting local, which seems to appeal to people across the board.”

Mr Batten said that approach had been “a little bit disappointing” because voters “do look to their candidates how-to-vote cards to get a recommendation”.

“We’re certainly urging Ellie Smith to be more transparent about her own values and we would urge her to recommend that Peter Dutton goes lower down the how to vote card,” he said.

All three candidates think Mr Dutton should take the threat they face seriously this campaign.

Mr Batten said it would “be a strategic thing for him to do”.

“If I were in his shoes, I would certainly be feeling the heat and feeling the pressure,” he said.

“If he’s not coming to community forums and events and opportunities where he can be scrutinised by the local community, I think he will definitely feel the heat from that.”

Ms France said it’s “going to be very, very close”.

“We don’t know how many candidates we’ve got yet, but what I do know is it’s going to be close,” she said.