AFL's top-eight finals race could be tightest on record as Sydney Swans falter and Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs fire

The race for AFL finals spots could be the tightest in the 31-season history of the top-eight format.

With three rounds to play, not even ladder-leaders Sydney (14-6) are guaranteed of playing in September as they sit 10 points clear of Essendon in ninth.

It would take a historical tumble for the struggling Swans, who have lost five of their last six games, not to play finals, but that outside mathematical chance exemplifies how close the 2024 competition is.

Carlton sat pretty in second for seven-straight rounds, seemingly on track to secure themselves a top-four finish for the first time since 2000.

But losing four of their past five matches has caused the Blues to crash down to eighth, falling six spots in the past three weeks.

The unpredictable finals race means the gap between first and eighth could be the smallest since the AFL introduced a top-eight back in 1994.

In 1993, just six points (one-and-a-half games) separated minor premiers Essendon (13-1-6) and sixth-placed West Coast (12-8) in the last year the AFL had a final-six system.

Incredibly, Geelong (12-8) missed out on playing finals that year only because they had a slightly inferior percentage to the Eagles.

This season could pip 2012 for the tightest race in the top-eight era as Sydney are only two games clear of the Blues (12-8) in eighth.

Twelve years ago, minor premiers Hawthorn went 17-5 during the home-and-away season, while North Melbourne needed 14 wins to qualify for the finals in eighth spot.

The 2017 season was also desperately fought, with Adelaide (15-1-6) finishing top, just three-and-a-half games clear of eighth-placed West Coast.

The biggest buffers from minor premiers to eighth are Carlton’s dominant 1995 team (10 wins clear of eighth-placed Brisbane), St Kilda 2009 (nine-and-a-half in front of Essendon in eighth), and Essendon’s all-conquering 2000 side, along with Geelong 2008 (both nine wins ahead of eighth).

Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge, who has been involved in the league since 1989, can’t remember a season like 2024.

“We’re only seventh ... there was probably a period of time where if we won a game it was because the opposition played poorly,” he said on Tuesday.

“Now, I think if we win a game we’re starting to identify that we’re not such a bad team when we pull our stuff together.

“When you’re a little bit off being out of the eight, and a little bit off climbing into a better space, then you’ve got no choice to be on edge.”

TIGHTEST TOP-EIGHTS IN AFL HISTORY

* 2012 (12-point gap between first and eighth) - 1st, Hawthorn (17-5, 68 pts); 8th, North Melbourne (14-8, 56 pts)

* 2017 (14-point gap between first and eighth) - 1st, Adelaide (15-1-6, 62 pts); 8th, West Coast (12-10, 48 pts)

* 2024 (eight-point gap between first and eighth with three rounds remaining) - 1st, Sydney (14-6, 56 pts; 8th, Carlton (12-8, 48 pts)