Melbourne Cup tips: Massive plunge on Mark Zahra’s ride as Al Riffa now favourite, Half Yours still solid

The weather continues to keep punters pondering their selections for the Melbourne Cup, but the biggest downpour on raceday has been the flow of money for new race favourite Al Riffa.

Mark Zahra was the talk of the racing world on Saturday after claiming four winners on VRC Derby Day at Flemington, and the big money players think he can do it again today on the European stayer.

Lightly raced Al Riffa comes to Australia with a strong race record, and with the weather set to clear ahead of the big race, a predicted Soft 6 track condition should be perfect for the Joseph O’Brien-trained six-year-old entire.

One of Australia’s most notable punters, Kingsley Bartholemew, was on hand at the call of the card at Crown Casino on Sunday and spruiked Al Riffa as one of his strongest considerations.

“He is probably the best horse to come down for the Cup from Europe since Vinnie Roe,” Bartholomew said.

One bet of $500,000 to win $3.5 million was then written at the call of the card, and the flow-on effect has been stunning as he is now into $6 with most bookmakers.

Zahra’s mount has drawn wide in barrier 19 and will need luck from there, but also needs to overcome the imposing top weight of 59kg.

In comparison, the last horse to win the Melbourne Cup carrying anywhere near that weight was Makybe Diva in 2005, who carried 58kg for Glen Boss.

“History’s against us, but if anyone can do it, I think he can. I just wouldn’t like the track to be a slop,” Zahra told RSN.

“I think rain-affected suits him a lot, but with 59kg on a bottomless track if it hoses down all day, that will make it tough for him.

“But heavy 8 range — soft 7 or heavy 8 range — would be perfect.

“I think he’s the best horse in the race by far, and with the right ride, I think he can win with 59kg.”

Ladbrokes spokesperson Nick Quinn says they have been swapmed with interest for Zahr’a mount with Al Riffa touching $5.50 at one point on Monday morning.

“He was $10 post barrier draw and then was backed from $10 into $7 over the last few days before being hammered from $7 into $5.50,” Quinn said.

“He is back out to $6-$6.50 now but is still favourite.”

Most favoured runners in the Melbourne Cup this year have no issues with the rain-affected going, and Jamie Melham, who is looking to stamp here own place in history, feels Caulfield Cup winner Half Yours can get the job done.

“He loves it. He swims through it. He doesn’t need it, but he definitely appreciates it,” she said.

A win would secure Melham’s place alongside Michelle Payne as the only female jockeys to win the Melbourne Cup.

Half Yours is untried at the 3200m Melbourne Cup distance, but the way he went to the line over 2400m at Caulfield indicates the extra ground should not prove a concern.

“I learned a lot from him in the Caulfield Cup. I had to get going too soon, I think, for the horse,” Melham said.

“He made a good 500-600m run, and when I won on him in the Naturalism [Stakes], I only got out 300m before home, and he was very sharp.

“I think he’ll definitely get the trip if I can just find the rail, put him to sleep, and let that first wave of horses get past me and just wait for the second crack at it,” she added.

One expert who is tipping Sydney trainer Chris Waller to hold the trophy aloft today is Melbourne for guru David Gately.

Gately is a renowned Victorian form student and he is tipping Cox Plate runner-up Buckaroo to get the job done with Craig Williams in the saddle.

“Buckaroo will be my top rated runner in the race this year,” Gately said on Sky Racing.

“He was terrific in the race last year, he’ll handle the wet ground and he should get a better run that what he saw in the race last year as well.

“He’s my top pick.”