How you can choose the winner of this year’s Cup

Every thought you had about the Melbourne Cup when Flemington was bathed in Derby Day sunshine became almost redundant on Monday morning when the heavens opened in the Victorian capital, turning things squarely in favour of “mudders” for Tuesday’s $10m race.

The Melbourne Cup is the most dissected horse race in Australia and arguably the most difficult to tip the winner.

Consider first that it’s the only major race on Australia’s calendar with a mammoth 24 runners, and this year boasts contenders from France, the UK and Ireland, Japan, Germany and even the USA, battling with the local hopes for the $4.5m winner’s cheque and a place in sporting history.

It’s a beast of a race and has thrown up everything from short-priced winners to Michelle Payne’s stunning 100-1 win on Prince of Penzance.

Last year, Knight’s Choice poked his head through at the right time to win for singing jockey Robbie Dolan as a $91 pop if you don’t mind.

Dolan is back in 2025, riding Royal Supremacy, a $31 chance, but this year’s Melbourne Cup looms as a different affair entirely given the big wet has turned picking a winner into a bit of pot luck.

There’s wet trackers, in-form jockeys, cagey trainers from here and overseas to take in.

But then there’s lucky numbers, funny names and even colours to sway the once-a-year punters.

Paying $5 for the office sweep and taking what you get could be as good a chance as any this year, but here’s some facts to take on board.

THE MUDDERS

There’s wet, and then there’s wet.

Melbourne went without rain for the best part of a week before Monday’s deluge and rain is again forecast for Tuesday.

It means heavyish conditions, but not a winter slog, although the fact the Cup is the seventh race on the program means the track will be chewed up and good going could be tricky to find.

Most would suggest it plays into the hands of international runners, given their capacity to swim through wet ground.

But not every overseas horse likes the wet, and luckily stats are kept to give everyone the necessary guidance.

There are nine runners who have won on a heavy track, which Flemington could be by 3pm on Tuesday.

The most impressive numbers in the wet belong to Arapaho $ (41) and German raider Flatten the Curve ($21).

Both have multiple wins in the slop, with 17 runs on heavy tracks between them. Flatten the Curve has also had another 14 runs for two wins on soft ground.

The six-year-old looks the ultimate mudder and is being ridden by the best-named jockey, Thore Hammer Hansen too.

French galloper Presage Nocturne ($8.50) is the other swimmer, having only finished out of the placings once in nine starts on soft ground, with three wins, including one over 3000m, pretty close to the Cup distance 3200m.

Caulfield Cup winner and race favourite Half Yours ($7) is also a winner on heavy ground, with three wins from five runs on soft tracks too.

There are eight horses in the race with no runs on heavy ground.

BOYS V GIRLS

The long history of the Melbourne Cup has been dominated by stallions and geldings, the boys, with 126 wins, including Knight’s Choice in 2024.

Just 12 individual mares, girls, have been victorious, the last being Verry Elleegant in 2021.

The winningest horse in the race’s history, however, was a mare. The legendary Makybe Diva won the race three times in a row in 2003, 2004 and 2005.

There are only two girls in the race this year, Goodie Two Shoes ($41) and River of Stars ($17)

THE NAMES

When once-a-year punters have a crack at the Cup, names and colours are often at the top of the criteria, sometimes the only criteria.

But while something funny or an omen bet could pop out, there’s also some data behind the names of winners.

Horses with one-word names have won 98 Melbourne Cups, but the last was Rekindling in 2017.

Only 10 of the 2025 field have one name, with Buckaroo ($9) the most favoured.

Next best is the 68 winners with two-word names. Half Yours is the $7 favourite this year.

THE DOUBLE

Winning a Melbourne Cup after a Caulfield Cup is the aim of race favourite Half Yours.

It’s not an unachievable feat.

There have been 12 winners of the double, including two since 2000, and Without A Fight did it in 2023.

STAY AWAY

Only once has the Melbourne Cup winner come from barrier 18.

This year that’s the lot of Geelong Cup winner Torranzino and possibly why the six-year-old is rated a $32 chance.

And the horse carrying number 20 is up against history. Number 20, which this year is Good Two Shoes, has not won the Cup since 1897.

THE GOOD NUMBERS

With 24 runners and 24 barriers to choose from each year, there’s going to be a good spread of victories.

Saddlecloth number four is the most successful, winning 12 Cups. That’s Smokin Romans ($41) this year.

Next best is number one, the top weight, which has won 11 times and is being carried by Al Riffa ($8).

Barrier five has produced the most number of winners, with 10, including last year’s victor Knights Choice.

Chevalier Rose ($41) jumps from that gate this year.

The least successful barriers are 18 and 23, with just two winners each. Backers of Torranzino ($35) and More Felons ($41) beware.

THE JOCKEYS

Melbourne Cup winning statistics can play a role here, but just as important is recent form.

Mark Zahra rode four winners on Derby Day, including the feature race, and is piloting topweight Al Riffa.

James McDonald won the $10m Golden Eagle in Sydney and is riding international Meydaan ($19).

Kerrin McEvoy has won the most Melbourne Cups of riders in the race, with three, and is on Absurde ($19).

There are six jockeys in the race who have won a Melbourne Cup.

THE TRAINERS

The name most synonymous with the Melbourne Cup is the iconic Bart Cummings, who won the race 12 times.

No other trainer in history has won more than four.

But of the trainers with horses in the race this year, only Irishman Joseph O’Brien has multiple winners.

He’s saddling up topweight Al Riffa ($8) and Goodie Two Shoes ($41) this year.

Gai Waterhouse (Vauban) and Ciaron Maher (Royal Supremacy, Middle Earth, Smokin’ Romans) have one Cup each and runners in 2025.