MARK ‘SPUDD’ CARROLL: Why Penrith won’t win the NRL Grand Final
You read here it first. Penrith won’t win this year’s premiership because the Warriors will take out the title for the first time.
You read here it first. Penrith won’t win this year’s premiership because the Warriors will take out the title for the first time.
I’m convinced, more than ever, we will be celebrating the first grand final win by an overseas team come early October.
The Warriors have been there twice before but failed at the final hurdle.
Sign up to The Nightly's newsletters.
Get the first look at the digital newspaper, curated daily stories and breaking headlines delivered to your inbox.
By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.After watching them dismantle Ivan Cleary’s men on Friday night, I’m confident it will be a case of third time lucky.
Before I get into the reasons why, I should first tell you why I reckon the Panthers won’t win a fifth premiership in six years.
It’s all down to a bloke with a short surname but a huge reputation, Yeo.
Unless Isaah Yeo runs into some miracle healer over the next few weeks and recovers from the pec injury he picked up in Auckland, I just can’t see his teammates getting the job done without him.
The Panthers have plenty of superstar players, Cleary, To’o, Edwards, Martin to name just four, but Yeo is the one that make sures the engine keeps ticking over.
Either side of the ball, the Penrith co-captain has a presence about him that just can’t be replaced.
He’s their inspirational leader, the one they turn to to make a big play at a critical stage of a game.
We saw it in the Origin decider and we’ve seen it during Penrith’s run of four straight premierships.
Stats in footy can be over-rated at times but they do tell a significant story when it comes to showing Yeo’s influence on his team.
When he plays, the Panthers get the cash 80 per cent of the time.
But when he’s out of commission, the win rate drops to just 55 per cent.
Now do you see what I am saying?
And I’m not the only one.
Shane Flanagan knows what it takes to win a comp and he shares my view.
He told Triple M: “I can’t see them winning if they don’t have him on the field in big games.
“I just don’t think in big semi-final football and grand finals, if they haven’t got their best forward and their captain on the park, it’d going to be very hard.”
Johnathan Thurston, another with a premiership ring on his hand, said: “I’m putting a line through them.
“He’s so integral to everything they do, not only with the ball but defensively as well.”
Ivan Cleary is putting on a brave face and will naturally reject talk they can’t win without Yeo.
And they may well do, leaving me and others with egg on our faces.
But I don’t think I will need to keep a paper towel handy.
They’re gone and it’s the Warriors time to shine.
If they can jag a top two finish, they are guaranteed two finals games in New Zealand before even having to set foot in Australia for grand final week.
Can you imagine how crazy things will be over there.
It’s a massive advantage.
They look a bit wiser, healthier and hungrier than the Warriors of 2025, who limped into the play-offs and exited in week one.
Those that were there are better for the experience while the likes of Luke Metcalf, Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita in the halves are standing up and delivering.
I love a tough hombre up front and they don’t come much scarier than James Fisher-Harris.
They’ve got a hard-working backrow, pace and size in the centres with that wrecking ball Leka Halasima and a strong bench.
And putting all the pieces together is a very under-rated but smart coach in Andrew Webster.
I’m convinced history is about to be made.
AND DON’T ME STARTED
I’ve heard some crazy ideas floated in rugby league, some of which have actually eventuated under the genius Peter V’landys.
The season kick-off in Las Vegas is Exhibit A.
But a proposal for the third and fourth-placed teams to play-off for third spot in grand final week is a stinker.
For those who didn’t read about it, the plan is for the two beaten teams from the preliminary finals to meet a day or two before the grand final.
From a player’s perspective, I couldn’t think of anything worse.
If you’ve lost your shot at playing in a grand final, nothing is going to make up for that disappointment.
If you’re not at the big dance, go home and lick your wounds or head to Bali on a bender.
Who cares if you finish third or fourth? It’s meaningless.
I expect this plan to die a quick death, although a lot of people said the same thing about Vegas.
BEFORE I GO
Regular readers will know my daughter Indianna realised her dream earlier this year when she cracked it for a spot on an NFL cheerleaders’ roster.
Indy will be doing her stuff for the Las Vegas Raiderettes, becoming just the fourth Australian to cheerlead for an NFL outfit.
By the time you read this, I will be on a plane with the family heading to Sin City to watch her in action when the Raiders take on the Arizona Cardinals in a pre-season match on Friday.
The game will be held at Allegiant Stadium, home to the NRL season kick-off.
We’ve had special t-shirts made up to show our support and I’m buzzing like I used to before a grand final or Origin match.
Go get ‘em, Indy!

