LATIKA M BOURKE: Putin’s Ukraine deal is hardly a ceasefire worth celebrating

The only thing has Vladimir Putin has agreed to is to stop attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days — it is hardly the ceasefire that US President Donald Trump is claiming.

The Russian President has rejected the conditions Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to for an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

Yet Donald Trump praised his call as a “good and productive one”.

“We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine,” the Mr Trump wrote on social media.

The Kremlin, however, was more restrained.

“During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days,” it said in a statement after the talks.

“Vladimir Putin responded favourably to the proposal and immediately gave the relevant order to the Russian troops.”

Russia has long attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure — one of its early targets in the war was taking control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. It destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in 2023 and has long been trying to freeze Ukrainians through the long winters by destroying more than half its energy generation and gas production capacities.

So why would Putin agree to this as his only concession?

One of Ukraine’s more potent forms of attack against its invader has been its ability to launch long-range drone attacks on Russian gas and energy facilities.

So this “concession” is no concession at all. It’s merely a way of getting the US to neuter one of Ukraine’s most effective ways of fighting back.

“This is the one area where a ceasefire would benefit Russia more than Ukraine, given Kyiv’s expanding capacity for long-range drone attacks on Russian energy targets,” said the Atlantic Council’s Alexander Vershbow — also a former NATO Deputy Secretary-General and former US Ambassador to Russia and assistant secretary for defence.

Mr Zelensky said that Russia’s first immediate response was to launch new night-time attacks using Iranian Shahed drones.

“It is these types of night-time attacks by Russia that destroy our energy sector, our infrastructure, and the normal life of Ukrainians,” President Zelensky said.

“And the fact that this night is no exception shows that the pressure on Russia must continue for the sake of peace.

“Today, Putin effectively rejected the proposal for a full ceasefire.

“It would be right for the world to respond by rejecting any attempts by Putin to prolong the war.”

This formal split between the Trump Administration and Russia on one side and “the world” that Mr Zelensky is referring to, is surely coming.

After stage one, Mr Putin has gained the upper hand over Mr Trump.

And the rest of the statements from the White House and the Kremlin after their lengthy and long-mooted phone call, which achieved little more than a pledge to stop attacking energy infrastructure — show Mr Putin risks outsmarting Mr Trump altogether.

The Kremlin said that Mr Trump “expressed support for Vladimir Putin’s idea to hold ice hockey matches in both the United States and Russia between Russian and American players”.

The official White House statement spoke of the “huge upside” of the future improved bilateral relationship that included “economic deals” once peace had been agreed and stressed Russia’s role in working with the US to prevent conflict in the Middle East.

“The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel,” the White House said.

“Joint efforts will be made to stabilise the situation in the crisis spots and establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security,” the Kremlin said.

“This will, in turn, contribute to improving the overall ambiance of relations between Russia and the United States.

“One positive example is the recent vote in the UN on a resolution on the Ukraine conflict, in which the two countries aligned their stances.”

Breaking this down, we have the Kremlin praising the alignment of the United States’ stance on its illegal war with its own in exchange for Russia potentially using its relationship with Iran to secure Israel.

Notably, Mr Putin did not move from any of his original aims in his demands for actual peace, including that the “complete cessation of providing Kyiv with foreign military aid and intelligence must become the key condition for preventing an escalation of the conflict and making progress towards its resolution through political and diplomatic means.”

He also demanded Ukraine stop mobilising men to the frontline and rearming but made no mention of these same conditions applying to Russia.

Mr Putin also said “peace” had to “naturally, take into account the essential need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, as well as Russia’s legitimate security interests”.

Given that Mr Trump has already accused Mr Zelensky of “starting the war” and that NATO’s expansion to include former Soviet-occupied and satellite states was provocation, this is code for denying Ukraine entry to NATO — something already all but agreed – but potentially reducing or weakening the alliance altogether.

Putin has repeatedly signalled that any “peace” is a deal he wants to strike with the United States, and increasingly with Donald Trump himself.

Cutting Europe and Ukraine out from the negotiations might be Mr Putin’s and possibly even Mr Trump’s preference, but it will not be acceptable.

The response from Allied leaders was tepid, at best.

The UK’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who has taken a leading role in trying to smooth relations between Mr Zelensky and Mr Trump after the blazing Oval Office role released the shortest of statements after Mr Putin and Mr Trump announced their “ceasefire deal”.

“The Prime Minister spoke to President Zelensky this evening,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.

“They discussed progress President Trump had made towards a ceasefire in talks with Russia.

“President Zelensky updated on the situation on the frontline and the Prime Minister reiterated UK’s unwavering support.”

So where do we find ourselves? Ukraine, humiliated and bullied, agreed to a total ceasefire. Russia rejected it and Mr Trump hailed it as “productive”.

Incrementalism, versus Mr Trump’s repeatedly stated desire for haste, is not necessarily an automatic deficiency.

“Starting with small, more verifiable steps that can build confidence and have a cumulative effect over time is more likely to work than attempting an immediate shift from high-intensity conflict to a complete truce,” said Samuel Charap from RAND Corporation.

But Mr Trump will need far more than this initial tiny concession from Putin to walk away the victor and the peacemaker he says he wants to be because right now Putin appears to be the one on course to achieve his long-term goal of crushing Ukraine, weakening NATO and splitting the United States from the West.

Unless of course, that is MAGA’s version of victory too.